Is the art market heading for a crash?

A Monet sold for £21m last week, setting yet another new record. But the true picture, some experts say, is of a less certain future

News in pictures
News in pictures
On Facebook
Arts & Ents blogs

Heidi: I don’t want my night to ever fizzle off, I want to finish it with an explosion

In Miami last year I discovered a DJ named Heidi Van Den Amstel, who played a brilliant set at Sunda...

Becoming Damien Hirst? You’re not the first

Damien Hirst, the richest, probably most famous, contemporary living artist, once remarked: “I don't...

The Photography Blog: Rise of the smartphone, but smart photography too?

Assuming Mark Zuckerberg hasn’t got his sums wrong, the market for smartphone photography is booming...

Applause rang round Christie's auction room in New York on Tuesday when the hammer came down on Monet's 1873 Le Pont du chemin de fer à Argenteuil for $41.5m (£21m) – breaking the record for the artist set last year when his Nymphéas 1904 sold for £18.6m in London.

Between them Sotheby's and Christie's shifted around $500m-worth of art at spring sales in New York last week. It can expect more big business at the contemporary sales this week, the jewel being Lucian Freud's Benefits Supervisor Sleeping, valued at £17m, which would see Freud the most expensive living artist, a record already broken three times in less than a year.

All appears well in the art world, with the millionaire buyers seemingly insulated against the current economic uncertainty. The global market doubled in value between 2002 and 2006 to £28bn, according to a recent report by the European Art Market Foundation. Records also fell this week for Munch, Rodin and Léger.

But the headline figures are disguising signs that the market has already cracked, according to the art bankers Art Capital Group. Their analysis of Christie's sales reveals that 21 of the 58 lots failed to meet low estimates, and 14 failed to sell. Five of the 16 guaranteed lots failed to reach minimum estimate. Among the non-sellers, for example, was a Gauguin, estimated to sell at $15m.

Ian Peck, Art Capital's chief executive, says auction houses are acting more like private dealers in finding buyers for the big trophy works that only come up once in a lifetime to ensure they sell. And these figures disguise the real situation.

"The critical pieces that the auction houses have to sell, they will find somebody to buy – in essence they will pre-sell them," he said. "It's the middle market where we will see a lack of depth. Only a handful of the wealthiest collectors were bidding. The market is heading for a soft landing."

But a Christie's spokes-man said the market, including its middle sector, was holding up. "We are merely a platform that brings sellers to buyers," he said. "We work with collectors, and when a work comes up we have an idea who would be interested. With so many buyers from the Middle East and Asia, the market remains robust."

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus
Career Services

Day In a Page

Bee Gees star Robin Gibb loses cancer battle

Bee Gees star Robin Gibb dies

British songwriter who defined disco described as second only to the Beatles
Antelope first seen 20 years ago is on brink of extinction

Endangered animals

The good news and the bad news
Second best day of his life? Zuckerberg surprises friends with secret wedding

Second best day of his life?

Zuckerberg surprises friends with secret wedding
Laurie Penny: In the age of camera phones the message is that protesters are watching police too

Occupy in the age of the camera phone

In Chicago, you can't see the cops for the cameras
Exclusive extract: How Cameron tried to evade Murdoch's embrace

Exclusive book extract

How Cameron tried to evade Murdoch's embrace
Pathetic fantasist or Nazi spy? The mysterious Mrs O'Grady

Pathetic fantasist or Nazi spy? The mysterious Mrs O'Grady

She was the only British woman sentenced to death for treason during the Second World War. Now, a new book revisits her bizarre case
Introducing the wellderly

Introducing the wellderly

Growing numbers of the over-65s want to keep working, volunteer or go on gap years
Penny Junor: 'I'm absolutely not a friend of Prince Charles'

Penny Junor interview

'I'm absolutely not a friend of Prince Charles'
Joe Strummer: The angry young man who grew up

Joe Strummer

How to remember the punk hero?
Patrick Cockburn: Goodbye to recent delusions - the age of nationalism is back with a vengeance

Patrick Cockburn: Goodbye to recent delusions...

... the age of nationalism is back with a vengeance
AN Wilson: Can Hollande live down the rain on his parade?

Can Hollande live down the rain on his parade?

The new French President's debut last week has drawn comparisons with Clouseau. But AN Wilson says curious things can happen after a downpour
Slumdog the musical calls in Julian Fellowes

Slumdog the musical calls in Julian Fellowes

Danny Boyle has broken off talks on staging his hit movie after an argument over artistic control
Like hotcakes: Bill Granger thinks the world is about to go pancake-crazy

Like hotcakes

Bill Granger thinks the world is about to go pancake-crazy
Siren sisters: The fishy tale of America's strangest theme park

Siren sisters

The fishy tale of America's strangest theme park
Blade Runner with a female lead: All-action gals... just like mother

All-action gals... just like mother

It's no surprise Ridley Scott is to remake his sci-fi action thriller 'Blade Runner' with a female lead