Nate Silver: The political forecaster who called the US election says Scots have 'no chance' for independence
Alice Jones' Arts Diary
Nate Silver has spoken. The statistician and political forecaster, 35, who shot to fame when he correctly called the outcome of all 50 states in the 2012 US Elections has predicted that the Yes campaign has "virtually no chance" in the Scottish Independence vote next year.
Speaking at the Edinburgh International Book Festival this week, Silver said: "There is a wide variety of polls and they all show the 'no' vote ahead, some by modest margins and some by overwhelming margins."
"The best you can do is take an average of those. If there was a major crisis in England – if the eurozone split apart and there were ramifications economically then maybe things would be reconsidered a little bit. For the most part it looks like it's a question of how much the 'no' side will win by, not what the outcome might be."
Silver's comments caused a flurry in Scottish media and political circles but the man himself urged calm. "Taking a comment based on a 30-minute interview that becomes front page news is not the precedent I want to set", he said. "Being seen as a magic svengali is the opposite of my attitude."
Also in the Arts Diary
After giving gay film R-rating despite no sex or violencefilm
Arts & Ents blogs
- 1 Jeremy Clarkson 'sees no problem' with his racist language on Top Gear, says BBC
- 2 'Alien thigh bone' on Mars: Excitement from alien hunters at 'evidence' of extraterrestrial life
- 3 Richard Dawkins on babies with Down Syndrome: 'Abort it and try again – it would be immoral to bring it into the world'
- 4 London restaurant 34 creates champagne glass modelled on Kate Moss’ left breast
- 5 ALS ice bucket challenge co-founder Corey Griffin drowns, aged 27
Jeremy Clarkson 'sees no problem' with his racist language on Top Gear, says BBC
Lucy, film review: Scarlett Johansson will blow your mind in Luc Besson's complex thriller
Miley Cyrus concert banned on morality grounds in the Dominican Republic
Britain's ugliest buildings: Which monstrosities should be nominated for the Dead Prize?
American film board gives gay film Love Is Strange R-rating despite no sex or violence
Richard Dawkins on babies with Down Syndrome: 'Abort it and try again – it would be immoral to bring it into the world'
Scottish independence: English people overwhelmingly want Scotland to stay in the UK
Isis threat: Cameron wants an alliance with Iran
Michael Brown shooting: Chaos erupts on the streets of Ferguson after autopsy shows teenager was shot six times – twice in the head
Bin bag full of cats' heads discovered near Manchester's Curry Mile
Disgusting, frustrating, but intriguing: how the country really feels about its politicians