Nate Silver: The political forecaster who called the US election says Scots have 'no chance' for independence
Alice Jones' Arts Diary
Nate Silver has spoken. The statistician and political forecaster, 35, who shot to fame when he correctly called the outcome of all 50 states in the 2012 US Elections has predicted that the Yes campaign has "virtually no chance" in the Scottish Independence vote next year.
Speaking at the Edinburgh International Book Festival this week, Silver said: "There is a wide variety of polls and they all show the 'no' vote ahead, some by modest margins and some by overwhelming margins."
"The best you can do is take an average of those. If there was a major crisis in England – if the eurozone split apart and there were ramifications economically then maybe things would be reconsidered a little bit. For the most part it looks like it's a question of how much the 'no' side will win by, not what the outcome might be."
Silver's comments caused a flurry in Scottish media and political circles but the man himself urged calm. "Taking a comment based on a 30-minute interview that becomes front page news is not the precedent I want to set", he said. "Being seen as a magic svengali is the opposite of my attitude."
Also in the Arts Diary
Glastonbury Roger Daltrey and Pete Townshend will perform with Paul Weller as their warm-up act
Arts & Ents blogs
- 1 Morgan Freeman on the riot-focused coverage of the Baltimore protests: 'F**k the media'
- 2 The man who filmed the Freddie Gray video has been arrested at gunpoint
- 3 Top Gear: Jodie Kidd, Philip Glenister and Guy Martin 'in advanced talks' to replace Jeremy Clarkson and co
- 4 Frankie Boyle on Scottish independence: 'In the Interests of Unity, F**k Off'
- 5 Length of pregnancy can vary by up to five weeks, scientists discover
Penny Dreadful, series 2 episode 1, review: It is still gloriously silly
Top Gear: Jodie Kidd, Philip Glenister and Guy Martin 'in advanced talks' to replace Jeremy Clarkson and co
Eurovision 2015: What date and time is the song contest and who are the favourites to win?
Game of Thrones, season 5 episode 4, review: Sansa in danger of becoming another footnote in Westeros' bloody history
Fifty Shades of Grey movie shows first sex scene 'after 40 minutes'
In defence of liberal democracy
The Rothschild Libel: Why has it taken 200 years for an anti-Semitic slur that emerged from the Battle of Waterloo to be dismissed?
General Election 2015: UK will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power, Labour warns
General election live: SNP suspends two members for disrupting Labour rally
Schools forced to act as 'miniature welfare states' with teachers buying underwear and even haircuts for poor pupils
Andy McSmith's Sketch: Feisty audience is the real star of an enlightening show