The battle for Middle Earth

Eleven hours and 38 minutes. That's how much of Peter Jackson's The Lord of the Rings is available for anyone smitten by elves, dwarves and small things with hairy feet.

It's the same time it takes to fly halfway round the world. It's a heck of a stretch to spend in Middle Earth. But if said land – where JRR Tolkien's books are set – sounds a little like purgatory, here's some hellish news for anyone immune to the charms of Gollum, Frodo, Gandalf and co: the fantasy is back. It will be the biggest film story from now until the end of 2012. You have been warned.

The addition to the yarn is a two-part imagining of The Hobbit – a prequel to the most successful film trilogy of all time that began with The Fellowship of the Ring in 2001 and wrapped up with The Return of the King two years later, nabbing 17 Oscars and $2.91bn in takings. Such figures turned the decision to film Tolkien's much-loved introductory novel into a no-brainer. But what has shocked fans is that Jackson – godlike in Ring circles – only executive produces this time, handing directing responsibilities over to Guillermo del Toro of Pan's Labyrinth and Hellboy fame. Perhaps the creator has tired of the world he so meticulously made.

It wouldn't be surprising. Ever since the curtain rose on the trilogy, the franchise has been milked. Online shops stock 20-plus DVD spin-offs (Special Extended Editions, Box Sets, Special Limited Editions, a Trivial Pursuit game), with Blu-Rays to come. On the official site, 18-carat gold "One Ring To Rule Them All" gift boxes are being bought at £380 a pop. Such marketing clout greatly excites the studio moneymen. In short, no fantasy novel has been safe from being filmed.

Sadly for filmgoers, the rush to grab hold of the Rings coattail has led to underwhelming adaptations of hugely successful fantasy novels Eragon (2006) and The Golden Compass (2007). Neither did enough business to warrant planned sequels. Disney has even pulled support from future films in the decent CS Lewis Chronicles of Narnia franchise, with Prince Caspian only the seventh most successful movie of 2008.

Has Jackson realised that The Hobbit can't be possibly be as successful as his original films in a time when gritty, real-world fare such as The Dark Knight smashes box-office records? Fantasy is far from a guarantee of big business these days and so, perhaps to protect his legacy, Jackson has ducked to the side.

Until this century, the New Zealander was no more than a well-regarded cult film-maker, the man behind classic splatter-flicks Bad Taste and Braindead and the excellent, Kate Winslet-starring fantasy-thriller Heavenly Creatures. Rings was by far the biggest venture he'd attempted, absorbing him and co-writer and wife Fran Walsh for the best part of five years. A desire for a change of scene seems reasonable.

Or, perhaps, he's too busy with adaptations of Alice Sebold's weepie The Lovely Bones (due next year) and Tintin (a joint enterprise with director Steven Spielberg), in various stages of development. Jackson admitted last year of his decision not to direct The Hobbit that "the idea of going back in and essentially competing against my own movie seemed an unsatisfying way to spend the next five years".

His no-show has already caused fan palaver more than three years before the planned release of The Hobbit's first instalment. During a live webchat in May last year, Jackson was asked why he couldn't just "direct it himself, after The Lovely Bones", and how Del Toro could possibly do justice to the hallowed work having told reporters at Cannes in 2006 that "I was never into heroic fantasy. At all. I don't like little guys and dragons, hairy feet, hobbits – I've never been into that at all. I don't like sword and sorcery, I hate all that stuff."

Fair points. While Jackson said he "thought long and hard about this and what we're doing here will result in better movies, I promise you," and Del Toro argued passionately that he loves The Hobbit "enough to give it half a decade of my life and move half a world away to do it," this executive producer/director set-up smacks of how one imagines Sir Alex Ferguson's eventual successor at Manchester United will feel if his stupendously successful predecessor sticks around, offering advice.

What's more, with Jackson and Walsh back on co-writing duties (alongside the new director), Lord of the Rings bigwigs Weta Workshop returning for effects, and New Zealand again doubling for Middle Earth, Del Toro's creative freedom hardly seems unchecked. He seems like a hired hand.

It would be a pity, though, if the Spanish director can't stamp his authority on the franchise. The visionary behind Cronos, The Devil's Backbone and Hellboy, his mind brims with creatures great and varied. He is a fascinating, unique talent, a genre crossover director who deserved an Oscar for 2006's superlative Pan's Labyrinth. In that film, he expertly depicted the fantasy world a little girl (Ofelia) creates to escape the brutality of the Spanish Civil War. It's grown-up storytelling – visually a perfect fit for a children's book like The Hobbit, but thematically miles off.

There is no doubt that Del Toro knows how to direct wonderful, personal, unique films, but his Hellboy movies have been good, not great, and his studio debut Mimic (1997) was by all accounts a disaster ("Mimic was a studio process, which is completely different and quite frankly, I did not enjoy it," he said). How he deals with the two-studio Hobbit behemoth – with or without Jackson peering over his shoulder – will be fascinating.

It wasn't meant to be like this. Back in September 2006, all roads seemed to lead to a link-up between MGM and Rings backers/Hobbit rights-owners New Line Cinema for a Jackson-directed prequel. But then he and New Line Cinema entered legal wranglings over what the director claimed was lost revenue from The Fellowship of the Ring, and the studio's co-founder Robert Shaye cut ties with the man who had brought unprecedented success to his company. Jackson was being greedy, they said. MGM put the brakes on. They wanted Jackson. Eventually a settlement was thrashed out and on 18 December 2007 it was announced that the MGM, New Line and (executive producing) Jackson team was back on.

"I really respect and admire Peter and would love for him to be creatively involved in some way in The Hobbit," said Shaye. Just not, it seems, behind the camera. It's as if the New Zealander's name means more to the companies backing the film than the book itself. Similarities can't even be drawn between Jackson and George Lucas, as the latter's Star Wars world was entirely his own. It made sense for him to executive-produce films in the series he did not direct (one of which, The Empire Strikes Back, is the best of the lot), but with Jackson's name appearing on the title card, The Hobbit will surely remain in his image.

Tolkien wrote The Hobbit for his three young boys, publishing it in September 1937 to such critical and commercial adulation that he crafted the Rings tomes. It tells of Bilbo Baggins teaming up with 13 dwarves to recapture treasure from the dragon Smaug. Set "between the dawn of the Færie and the Dominion of men" and riddled with sing-a-long songs (sample lyric: "O! Tril-lil-lil-lolly, the valley is jolly, ha! Ha!"), the novel begins the stories of two of the Rings films' most revered characters, Gollum and Gandalf, played by Andy Serkis and Ian McKellen respectively in Jackson's work.

Both are rumoured to be returning (Del Toro exclaiming "Absolutely" when asked about McKellen's involvement), along with a role of some sort for Ian Holm, who played Bilbo in Jackson's films. As such, continuity is assured. The first film will deal with the book of The Hobbit, while the second as-yet-untitled instalment offers creative licence to bridge the 60-year gap to The Fellowship of the Ring.

Both films are being shot back-to-back in 2010, but with freedom to imagine what Tolkien had in his head 70 years ago being handed to Del Toro and Jackson's writing team, fans' daggers are surely being sharpened. Perhaps the new director insisted on the infallible old master's involvement after all.

THE RETURN OF THE SEQUEL: FRANCHISES THAT RAN AND RAN

Star Wars: The Clone Wars
Never say that Hollywood has run out of ideas. Just a few months ago, George Lucas told the long-awaited (in certain circles at least) tale of what happened between Episodes II and III – in cartoon form. The ultimate never-say-die franchise, there's an animated TV programme available and a live-action one in the works.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine
If a comic book franchise runs out of stories for its ensemble, why not milk the individual tales? So, with the X-Men trilogy done and dusted in 2006, Fox looked to the back-story of rugged man-beast Wolverine (Hugh Jackman, above) to fills its coffers. Directed by Gavin Hood, it's due in May this year.

Spider-Man 4
Due in May 2011, 'Spider-Man 4' is the first of two more web-slinger flicks that see the return of Kirsten Dunst and Tobey Maguire – the latter netting a cool $50m for both films. 'Spider-Man 3' took $60m on its opening day in the US. You do the maths.

Terminator: Salvation
With Arnold Schwarzenegger holed up in political office, this most unexpected of franchise reboots (right), out next year, takes the story to a time after the machines have risen. Christian Bale has signed; Arnie may be involved.

Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Are you surprised that a film trilogy of diminishing artistic returns warrants a fourth outing, set for 2011, with Johnny Depp pocketing $59m for his continued involvement? 'Pirates 2' is the third-highest grosser of all time, and 'Pirates 3' is the sixth. It's not rocket science. Who would have thought that a theme park ride could have so much to say?