Media: Tabloid on the tube signals alarm

Will a free paper undermine the mighty Mail? By Naomi Marks far exceeds any previous PM, and many professional writers. But does familiarity breed contempt?

AS ASSOCIATED Newspapers prepared, earlier this year, to launch Metro, a free daily tabloid for Tube-travelling Londoners, there were distinct rumblings in the industry.

Commentators wondered whether the UK's last old-style national newspaper fiefdom wasn't about to shoot itself in the foot. Surely the new paper would steal precious advertising and sales revenue from its established big sister, London's Evening Standard?

What is more, plans for another London freebie, this time from News International, were known to be afoot. And then Forward Publishing, too, was hoping to enter the fray. Was another bloody circulation battle about to ensue? Industry confidence was not boosted when just a month before its launch Paul Dacre, Associated's editor-in-chief, apparently unhappy with the dummy paper, decided to replace the Metro's editor Kim Chapman, a former editor of the Reading Evening Post, with an Associated steady hand, Ian McGregor.

More than two months after launch, some of the question marks over the title have disappeared. News International seems to have gone quiet over its contender for this captive market. And Forward, a minnow in the publishing sea, has been forced to shelve its plans.

But new question marks have replaced the old ones. There are suggestions - although it's too early to draw conclusions - that the Mail may indeed be suffering. The latest circulation figures show the Mail's May circulation down 0.23 per cent on April's sales. April figures, too, showed a minor month-on-month dip.

Laura James, press director of the media buyers New PHD, said: "This could suggest there's an element of cannibalisation going on. If this is a short-term effect, then I don't think we'd be overly concerned. If it is a longer-term effect, then we would be worried."

Steve Goodman, press director of MediaCom TMB, also thought Metro could affect the Mail, but added: "I really can't believe [Associated] hasn't considered what the effects would be on its own stable."

Associated is facing unexpected problems on the distribution front. Anecdotal evidence suggests the neatly stapled, newsy Metro, a typically professional Mail product that has been well-received by the industry, is enjoyed by commuters - when they can get hold of it. The problem lies in their getting to read it, since it was launched in only 70 of an intended 261 Tube stations.

Ms James says: "I'm not sure that [Associated] checked out the feasibility as thoroughly as they thought They didn't know about station managers having a hold over what happens at their stations." As negotiations with station managers continue, Associated is looking for a deal with Connex to get the paper into mainline railway stations, too.

The circulation figures of Metro differ, depending on who is talking. Pre-launch, a bullish Associated was guaranteeing a minimum of 350,000. Following the March launch, media buyers are suggesting varying circulations of 250,000, 300,000 and 350,000. Hard data is proving hard to come by.

One industry observer suggests Associated's own print capacity may not yet be up to the demands of another hefty daily print run. Furthermore, for a free publication Metro is worryingly free of retail advertising.

Another press director at a big London agency admits that these may only just be teething troubles. He points out that Associated isn't the kind of company to invest money in huge, new projects - pounds 3m in this case - only to pull out because of a few early twinges.