Monkeys tipped for historic second Mercury

If the bookmakers are to be believed, this year's Nationwide Mercury Prize will be a two-horse race between the Arctic Monkeys and Amy Winehouse.

The judges, normally lauded for championing some of the more marginal talents in the British music scene, left themselves open to accusations of drifting towards the mainstream by including both acts for the second time in their short careers.

The Arctic Monkeys won the Mercury Prize at their first attempt last year and could become the first actto win it twice after their second album Favourite Worst Nightmare was nominated yesterday. Winehouse, who made it on to the shortlist in 2004 with her debut Frank, is joint favourite at 4-1 with Back To Black, which has already been showered with awards.

But those who have followed the contest, which rewards the UK's album of the year, will recall that the final decision has a habit of turning up unexpected winners such as the fateful Britpop year of 1994 when M People beat Pulp, Blur and Paul Weller.

Anyone looking for an alternative bet on the 12-strong shortlist should note the return of another previous winner, Dizzee Rascal, with his second album Maths+English.

Among the eight debut albums on the shortlist is Myths Of The Near Future by the new ravers Klaxons, which reached number two in the UK album chart in January. Also present are Dundee's finest, The View, who chalked up a triumphant performance at this year's T In The Park festival and whose Hats Off To The Buskers has already gone platinum. Those looking for an outside punt could consider 27-year-old James Chapman, better known as Maps. His album We Can Create, devised on a 16-track recorder in his bedroom, scored rave reviews and the single "Don't Fear" won much radio airtime.

At the more esoteric end of the spectrum can be found Basquiat Strings, a classical string quintet set to the progressive jazz drumming of Seb Rochford.

Simon Frith, chair of the judges said this year's competition had seen a record 230 entrants. He praised the "energy, excitement and personality" in what is undeniably a more youthful crop of entrants than 2006. There were some surprise omissions, chief among them the non-appearance of Damon Albarn and Paul Simonon's band The Good, The Bad and The Queen on the shortlist.

Geoff Taylor, chief executive of the British Phonographic Industry, said: "One thing you can be sure of with the Nationwide Mercury Prize shortlist is that it will get people talking about great new UK music."

Gennaro Castaldo of HMV said: "It will be interesting to see if the judges are prepared to open themselves to potential accusations they are going too mainstream by voting for the Arctics for a second year in a row or by selecting Amy Winehouse - both of whom have enjoyed massive commercial success - or whether they deliberately go for a less obvious choice in order to show that they remain unpredictable and independently minded."

The result will be announced on 4 September.

The nominees

Arctic Monkeys: Favourite Worst Nightmare

Dizzee Rascal: Maths+English

The View: Hats Off To The Buskers

Maps: We Can Create

Bat For Lashes: Fur And Gold

Klaxons: Myths Of The Near Future

Jamie T: Panic Prevention

The Young Knives: Voices Of Animals And Men

Fionn Regan: The End Of History

Basquiat Strings with Seb Rochford: Basquiat Strings

Amy Winehouse: Back To Black

New Young Pony Club: Fantastic Playroom