Future of the planet rests on next 30 years, UN warns

The next 30 years will be critical for the global environment, a United Nations report warned yesterday.

More than 70 per cent of planet's land surface could be affected by roads, mining, cities and other developments by 2032. And half the human population could be facing serious water shortages. In some areas, such as west Asia and the Arabian peninsula, nine out of ten people will be living in severely "water stressed" areas, says the report of the UN Environment Programme (Unep).

Choices made today about the protection of forests, oceans, rivers, mountains, wildlife and other environments will affect future generations, Unep says.

Although the report, Global Environment Outlook-3 (Geo-3), prepared by more than 1,000 experts, says that in some areas there are signs of improvements, the overall picture is still one of increasing environmental degradation, especially in the developing world.

Klaus Topfer, Unep executive director, said at a conference in London to launch the report that enough knowledge had been gleaned over the past 30 years to make reasonable predictions about the next 30. He said: "We can never know for certain what lies before us, the future is another country. But we know now to see how our actions or lack of actions might shape the environment and the inhabitants of this extraordinary blue planet by 2032.

"Geo-3 is neither a document of doom and gloom nor a gloss over the acute challenges facing us all. It is the most authoritative assessment of where we have been, where we have reached and where we are likely to go."

The growth in human numbers had resulted in more land than ever being utilised the report said. Soil erosion alone had led to the degradation of an area of land equal to the United States and Mexico combined. Half of the world's rivers were seriously depleted and polluted and 60 per cent of the largest 227 rivers had been fragmented by engineering work.

Success stories included improvements in river and air quality in North America and Europe, and cuts in the emission of ozone-destroying chemicals.