Lord Stern says that there is more extreme weather to come for the UK if global warming is not tackled Getty Images
Leading environmental economist Lord Stern has said the ongoing storms in the UK are just a taste of things to come, warning that failing to tackle global warming could lead to war as hundreds of millions of people are forced to migrate.
The peer, author of a landmark 2006 report on climate change, said record rainfall and storm surges were “a clear sign that we are already experiencing the impacts of climate change”.
He said that the dangers were greater now than in 2006 because greenhouse gas emissions have “increased sharply” and their effects are happening more quickly, such as the melting of Arctic sea ice.
“If we do not cut emissions, we face even more devastating consequences, as unchecked they could raise global average temperature to 4C or more above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century,” he wrote in The Guardian.
“The shift to such a world could cause mass migrations of hundreds of millions of people away from the worst-affected areas. That would lead to conflict and war, not peace and prosperity.”
In pictures: Storms batter the UK
Storms continue to batter the UK
Huge waves break over the Newhaven Lighthouse on the south coast as another Altlantic storm hits Great Britain in Newhaven
Storms continue to batter the UK
A miniature sandstorm whipped up unusually high winds blows across the breakwater next to the Perch Rock lighthouse in New Brighton
Storms continue to batter the UK
Storm waves crash over the Longships Lighthouse just off Lands End in Cornwall
Storms continue to batter the UK
Storm waves crash over cliffs at Sennen Cove near Lands End in Cornwall
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Storms continue to batter the UK
A woman watches the rough sea in Aberystwyth, west Wales
Storms continue to batter the UK
Storm waves break at Porthleven in Cornwall
Storms continue to batter the UK
Storm waves break at Porthleven in Cornwall
Storms continue to batter the UK
Newhaven Lighthouse is battered by waves during stormy weather in Newhaven on the southern coast of England
Storms continue to batter the UK
A car sits on flood water on a flooded property at Burrowbridge on the Somerset Levels
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Storms continue to batter the UK
Flood water is seen pumped into the river at the pumping station near Fordgate on the Somerset Levels near Bridgwater Getty Images
Storms continue to batter the UK
Waves crash against the seafront and the railway line that has been closed due to storm damage at Dawlish, Devon Getty Images
Storms continue to batter the UK
A huge waves break over the railway in Dawlish, causing damage. High tides and strong winds have created havoc in the Devonshire town PA
Storms continue to batter the UK
A huge length of railway track is exposed and left hanging after the sea wall collapsed in Dawlish PA
Storms continue to batter the UK
People stand by beach huts that have been damaged by the storm waves at Dawlish Getty Images
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Storms continue to batter the UK
A huge wave breaks behind a car, which sits in seawater on a flooded street by the sea wall railway in Dawlish PA
Storms continue to batter the UK
Beach huts that have been damaged by the storm waves at Dawlish Getty Images
Storms continue to batter the UK
Spectators watch as waves break over the harbour wall at Porthcawl, Wales, during a high tide Getty Images
High tides, rain And strong winds in Wales
Waves crash up against the sea defences at Aberystwyth during high tide and high winds on 2 February
Stormy waves in England
Stormy waves roll in to the shore and break along the seafront at Porthcawl Getty Images
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High tide waves in Wales
High tide waves break along the seafront at Porthcawl in Mid Glamorgon, Wales Getty Images
Flooding in England
Flood water surrounds the Plough Inn besides the River Severn at Upton-upon-Severn in Worcestershire Getty
Flooded streets in Kent
A man looks on as a car passes on a flooded road in the village of Yalding in Kent AFP
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Storm damage in Surrey
A fallen tree blocks a road in Epsom, Surrey Getty
Huge waves in Wales
Waves crash against the lighthouse wall in Porthcawl EPA
High tides in Scotland
A train passes along the coast at Saltcoats in Scotland, as a combination of high tides, heavy rains and strong winds are expected to bring yet more severe flooding to many parts of the country PA
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Flooding in Wales
Holiday chalets at Carmarthen Bay Holiday Park are surrounded by flood water caused by high tides in Kidwelly, West Wales
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A car drives through flood water on the A361, which has been closed to traffic due to flooding, at Burrowbridge
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A car tackles flood waters near Headcorn, Kent
River Wey floods
Flooding near the river Wey in Guildford, Surrey
Blackpool flooding
Waves crash over Blackpool seafront
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Huge waves at Tyne and Wear
Surfers brave the waves at Tynemouth
He pointed to other parts of the world that have been experiencing “extreme weather events” in the past few months: heatwaves in Australia and Argentina, record rainfall and floods in Brazil, and Typhoon Haiyan – “the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall anywhere in the world” — which killed more than 5,700 people in the Philippines.
“This is a pattern of global change that it would be very unwise to ignore,” Lord Stern wrote.
“The upward trend in temperature is undeniable, despite the effects of natural variability in the climate which causes the rate of warming to temporarily accelerate or slow for short periods, as we have seen over the past 15 years.
“The risks are immense and can only be sensibly managed by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which will require a new low-carbon industrial revolution.”
He condemned the “lack of vision and political will” from politicians in the developed world, but said “fortunately poorer countries, such as China, are showing leadership and beginning to demonstrate to the world how to invest in low-carbon growth”.
And he argued the Government should resist calls to cut overseas aid to help pay for the flood response as it would be “deeply immoral to penalise the 1.2 billion people around the world who live in extreme poverty”.
“In fact, the UK should be increasing aid to poor countries to help them develop economically in a climate that is becoming more hostile largely because of past emissions by rich countries.”
Watch elderly Staines residents rescued from encroaching flood waters