The Big Question: Who will be the EU's first president, and why is the role so contentious?


Why are we asking this now?


The European Council, the EU's main decision-making body, made up of the leaders of the 27 member states, is due to appoint its first president at a special summit in Brussels tomorrow night. The post has been created by the Treaty of Lisbon, which streamlines the EU's workings and takes effect on 1 December after being ratified by all 27 countries.





What's new about the role?

It will replace the "Buggins's turn" rotating presidency under which one member state chairs EU meetings for six months. This has been criticised as ineffective and being too big a burden on smaller member states. The new president would serve for two-and-a-half years and is likely to enjoy a salary of about £250,000 a year.

So what exactly will the president's role be?

Good question. Bizarrely, EU leaders are still trying to answer it. Some, including Gordon Brown, favour a heavyweight who would represent Europe on the world stage. Tony Blair would fit this bill. But other member states believe the new president's priority should be to chair EU leaders' meetings and drive through their agenda. Those who want a big-hitter argue that the United States would not take Europe seriously if a little-known figure from a small member state was appointed, warning that the EU would not punch its weight in a world dominated by the US and China. They point out that small nations who do not want a heavyweight opposed the post's creation when it was first mooted.

The opponents of a big name reckon that the EU doesn't need one, pointing out that the Lisbon Treaty also creates the post of high representative for foreign and security policy, dubbed the EU "foreign minister." The European Commission President, currently Jose Manuel Barroso, also plays a role on the global stage.

So who's going to land the job?

Now it really gets complicated. Mr Blair was seen as an early front-runner. France's president Nicolas Sarkozy originally championed him (and even told him the job was made for him). But lately he has cooled on the idea. He wants to put on a united front with his new friend the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, after their relationship got off to a sticky start. She is sympathetic to demands by the smaller member states for the president to be "one of theirs", on the grounds that the big ones are already too dominant.

The other big factor is the pressure for the president to be on the centre-right of the political spectrum, reflecting the parties now in power in most European countries – and ruling out Mr Blair. In a classic EU trade-off, the "foreign minister" would then be a centre-left politician.

Realistically, what are Tony Blair's chances?

Not great, but his supporters insist that he is not out of the race yet. Remarkably, he has not confirmed publicly that he wants the job, with friends saying that he is busy enough in his role as Middle East peace envoy (not to mention his lucrative speaking engagements around the world). It seems that he does not want to suffer the indignity of being turned down. But he has not quelled the speculation that he wants the post and is thought to have lobbied some EU leaders privately.

Who are the other candidates?

The current front-runner is Herman van Rompuy, the Belgian Prime Minister, who is little known outside his own country – and best-known for his passion for writing Japanese haikus in Flemish. ("Hair blows in the wind/After years there is still wind/Sadly no more hair.").

Although he enjoys the support of several small nations, his opponents claim he is a "lowest common denominator" candidate who would not open doors in Washington or "stop the traffic" in capitals around the world (as the Foreign Secretary David Miliband said Mr Blair would do). He is a federalist who supports the EU having greater tax-raising powers.

Other runners from the centre right include Jan Peter Balkenende, the Dutch Prime Minister, who was once compared to Harry Potter. It is believed that Britain might back him to stop Mr van Rompuy if Mr Blair has no chance when EU leaders gather for their working dinner tomorrow. Then there is Jean-Claude Junker, the long-serving Prime Minister of Luxembourg, who shrugged off unfavourable comparisons with Mr Blair by declaring: "I am not a dwarf." A dark horse is Latvia's Vaira Vike-Frieberga, 71, dubbed the "Iron Lady of the North."

How does one separate the contenders?

That is not easy. Faced with no obvious likely winner, EU diplomats are apt to quip to each other, "Why don't YOU run for president?" Fredrick Reinfeldt, Prime Minister of Sweden, which currently holds the presidency, is said to have a list of 20 names for both jobs.

How will the decision be made?

Mr Reinfeldt had hoped his "confessionals" – private conversations with his fellow EU leaders – would produce a consensus on the EU president and "foreign minister" before the dinner, allowing the 27 leaders to rubber-stamp them and then enjoy their food. But there is still little sign of that, so there could be some hard-bargaining and hours of wrangling. Brown aides will pack two shirts in case the meeting runs into Friday.

Mr Reinfeld will want to avoid a formal vote – the EU tries to work by consensus – but if it comes to that, the president will be appointed by qualified majority voting, with no country having a veto. Mr Blair's backers still hope he could "re-emerge" in the event of a deadlock. One British minister said: "It's all up to Angela Merkel. We hope she will show some leadership and back Tony."

Who is in the running for EU 'foreign minister'?

Not Mr Miliband, who rejected pressure from socialists on the Continent to throw his hat into the ring, or Lord Mandelson, who has a general election campaign to run. Lord (Chris) Patten of Barnes, the former Conservative Party chairman and ex-European commissioner, has been touted as an outside bet, although not in combination with Mr Blair since no one country would land both posts (and not if the job goes to a centre-left politician). Massimo D'Alema, Italy's former foreign minister, is now seen as the favourite for the job, even though eastern European states oppose him because of his Communist past.

How important is the role?

Although most of the attention has focused on the top job, some commentators say the "foreign minister" could wield more power – particularly if a low-key figure is picked as president. "It's a much more interesting post and it will totally change the EU's role in the world. That person will have real access to power and money," says Hugo Brady of the Centre for European Reform. The winner will benefit from the creation of a de-facto foreign ministry, with over 7,000 diplomatic staff and a string of new EU embassies around the world. Nice work ...

Should Tony Blair be President of the European Union?

Yes...

*The EU will not be taken seriously on the world stage unless it appoints a heavyweight figurehead

*His experience and negotiating skills, shown in the Northern Ireland peace process, make well qualified

*He could prove a useful ally as David Cameron attempts to stop the EU gaining new powers

No...

*The EU's smaller member states oppose another "stitch-up" by the big guns and have a claim to the post

*He is a divisive figure because of the Iraq war – and will give evidence to Britain's inquiry into it

*The Tories oppose his candidacy and they may well form the next government

***

a.grice@independent.co.uk

Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
SPONSORED FEATURES

Day In a Page

Isis profits from destruction of antiquities by selling relics to dealers - and then blowing up the buildings they come from to conceal the evidence of looting

How Isis profits from destruction of antiquities

Robert Fisk on the terrorist group's manipulation of the market to increase the price of artefacts
Labour leadership: Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea

'If we lose touch we’ll end up with two decades of the Tories'

In an exclusive interview, Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea
Tunisia fears its Arab Spring could be reversed as the new regime becomes as intolerant of dissent as its predecessor

The Arab Spring reversed

Tunisian protesters fear that a new law will whitewash corrupt businessmen and officials, but they are finding that the new regime is becoming as intolerant of dissent as its predecessor
King Arthur: Legendary figure was real and lived most of his life in Strathclyde, academic claims

Academic claims King Arthur was real - and reveals where he lived

Dr Andrew Breeze says the legendary figure did exist – but was a general, not a king
Who is Oliver Bonas and how has he captured middle-class hearts?

Who is Oliver Bonas?

It's the first high-street store to pay its staff the living wage, and it saw out the recession in style
Earth has 'lost more than half its trees' since humans first started cutting them down

Axe-wielding Man fells half the world’s trees – leaving us just 422 each

However, the number of trees may be eight times higher than previously thought
60 years of Scalextric: Model cars are now stuffed with as much tech as real ones

60 years of Scalextric

Model cars are now stuffed with as much tech as real ones
Theme parks continue to draw in thrill-seekers despite the risks - so why are we so addicted?

Why are we addicted to theme parks?

Now that Banksy has unveiled his own dystopian version, Christopher Beanland considers the ups and downs of our endless quest for amusement
Tourism in Iran: The country will soon be opening up again after years of isolation

Iran is opening up again to tourists

After years of isolation, Iran is reopening its embassies abroad. Soon, there'll be the chance for the adventurous to holiday there
10 best PS4 games

10 best PS4 games

Can’t wait for the new round of blockbusters due out this autumn? We played through last year’s offering
Transfer window: Ten things we learnt

Ten things we learnt from the transfer window

Record-breaking spending shows FFP restraint no longer applies
Migrant crisis: UN official Philippe Douste-Blazy reveals the harrowing sights he encountered among refugees arriving on Lampedusa

‘Can we really just turn away?’

Dead bodies, men drowning, women miscarrying – a senior UN figure on the horrors he has witnessed among migrants arriving on Lampedusa, and urges politicians not to underestimate our caring nature
Nine of Syria and Iraq's 10 world heritage sites are in danger as Isis ravages centuries of history

Nine of Syria and Iraq's 10 world heritage sites are in danger...

... and not just because of Isis vandalism
Girl on a Plane: An exclusive extract of the novelisation inspired by the 1970 Palestinian fighters hijack

Girl on a Plane

An exclusive extract of the novelisation inspired by the 1970 Palestinian fighters hijack
Why Frederick Forsyth's spying days could spell disaster for today's journalists

Why Frederick Forsyth's spying days could spell disaster for today's journalists

The author of 'The Day of the Jackal' has revealed he spied for MI6 while a foreign correspondent