On the turn: is it time for equities once again?


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The Independent Online

Something is stirring in investment circles, reckons Brian Dennehy of Fund Expert. He predicts that 2013 could be the year of the Great Rotation.

What's that? It's a theory about the potential end of the 30-year bond market and investors being forced to switch into equities.

Mr Dennehy explains: "The Great Rotation has been talked about and anticipated for years – and for years those who recommended dumping bonds for equities have been wrong. But right now there is an argument that it has begun."

The main evidence, he says, is that the week to 9 January saw the second biggest week of inflows into equities since 1996, according to EPFR, a US-based fund research company.

If true, what does it mean for investors? "You need to ask some questions," says Mr Dennehy. "Should you buy any stock markets where central banks are artificially pushing values higher? Or should you buy markets beyond the indebted Western markets? You might ordinarily regard them as higher risk, but those that aren't rigged, and which benefit from better fundamentals, do offer opportunities," he says, picking out China and India.

However, as with any other investment theories, acting in haste could be a mistake. Mr Dennehy points out that the biggest inflow into equities recorded by EPFR was in September 2007. That was a month before the end of a bull market for the US.

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