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Sean O'Grady: 'Hedge your bets on the election - you'll feel much better if you lose'

Apart from the Lotto and Grand National, Sean confines his gambling to politics

Sean O'Grady
Friday 24 April 2015 19:33 BST
Comments

Problem gambler; that's me. Obviously my problem is not so much gambling as winning. I jest! Anyway, my gambling habits are fairly modest, and focused on the National Lottery. This, I cannot justify. Recently I have taken to doing it online, and I seemed to have had more success – but only seemed.

I realise how silly thinking that way is. The odds are still ridiculously long and the proportion given to charitable causes ridiculously small. In that context, I know I'd be better setting up a standing order for the British Legion or the RSPCA (which, as it happens, I already have done).

Why do I do the lottery? Sheer greed. Which I have in common with the former Tory chancellor Nigel Lawson. During Lawson's time as a journalist, so an old story goes, someone asked this highly intelligent and rational man why he did the pools every week: "Think of the odds," someone told Lawson; "Think of the winnings," he replied.

Apart from the Lotto (where I am a large net loser) and the Grand National (I lost about £30 on Oscar Time), my gambling is confined to politics, where I fancy myself an expert. Obviously the general election is a prompt, so I have staked some £35 on assorted political bets via Paddy Power (I have no connection with them). Shall I share them?

I can't resist. First off, who'll win? Before I declare where my gut instinct lies, I should mention that I put this bet on a few weeks ago, before the Miliband revival. I thought then, with my head as well as my guts, that the Tories would form the largest party in the Commons. I didn't want that to happen, and I shan't be voting for them, but I thought that the most likely outcome and the odds were not bad: in decimal terms, 1.4 to 1. My brain tells me that might not happen now, but my gut instinct is that the internet polls are wrong and there are a lot of shy Tories out there.

There is also, in this respect, an element of emotional hedging to this, which I recommend as an entirely rational approach to life's political disappointments. Thus, if you're a lifelong socialist who is liable to become really upset if the Tories get in next time, then your emotional distress could be ameliorated by the thought that at least you'd have made some cash at the bookies.

The extent of your bet on the Tories would be determined by how annoyed you'd be at their winning. Conversely, the annoyance of losing your stake if Labour won would be outweighed by the elation you'd feel as Ed Miliband moved into Number 10.

As a Liberal Democrat sympathiser, then, my bet on them winning 25 Commons seats or fewer is just such an emotional hedge, not a declaration of loyalty. On that scenario, Paddy Power offered me 1.83 to 1.

I also liked (before she declared) Hillary Clinton to be the next Democratic nominee for the US presidency, at 1.25 to 1. Next week, I'll tell you who I'm betting will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.

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