Should you play bear or bull with markets?
The FTSE 100 reached a 13-year high this week, before falling back. What’s next?
Simon Read is Personal Finance Editor at The Independent. He edits the Saturday Your Money section and writes the Daily Money column and Wednesday’s Midweek Money section in i newspaper. He also writes for the news and business pages of the Independent and i newspaper and is a regular money commentator on TV station London Live. He has won numerous awards including Consumer Finance Journalist of the Year.
Saturday 25 May 2013
At the start of the week it looked likely that the Footsie would reach a new all-time high, topping the 6930 record achieved at the height of the dot-com boom in 1999.
But a 2 per cent fall in the Blue Chip index on Thursday put paid to that – at least for the moment. For investors who have enjoyed the near 100 per cent rise in the Footsie in the last four years the question rises: is it time to take profits?
No, says Mark Dampier of Hargreaves Lansdown, who writes our weekly The Analyst column. “I’m still bullish,” he said this week. “Even though the market came off strongly on Thursday, my view is that there’s a lot of cash waiting on the sidelines.
“I don’t think the UK equity market is overvalued. It can go further. The signs that I look for to show the current rally is coming to an end are things like wage rises, and we’re not seeing that.”
Brian Dennehy of Fund Expert has been a long-time bear, predicting that the Footsie would fall to 4000 rather than climb to record highs. This week he admitted he got that wrong.
“Our thesis for some time was that the UK stock market has been in a bear market since December 1999. That’s why we predicted falls in the Footsie,” he said.
“But we couldn’t anticipate several factors such as the Cyprus affair, and lots of money in banks flooding a range of asset classes.
“At any point we’re analysing markets to uncover a “most likely” path – and we always do this in such a way that if certain parameters are breached, we must be on another path. So as the facts changed, we’ve had to change our minds.”
But what now for markets? We’re into crystal-ball gazing territory, but Mr Dennehy has considered several scenarios including that there will be a continuing bear market, or even that a stronger bull market emerged in 2009 and is set to push the Footsie up to 10000 and beyond.
However, the most likely scenario, he now thinks, is that a new bull market began in March 2009 but is now nearing its end. “It could also represent the end of a much bigger stock market cycle stretching back decades that could lead to further 400 point upside in markets before the beginning of a new bear market.”
Other views? Patrick Connolly of Chase de Vere thinks taking some profits now could be a wise course. “While equity investors should remain in the market over the long term, there is a strong argument for taking some profits and rebalancing now,” he said.
“By doing this you are effectively selling at the top of the market and buying at the bottom. This is the holy grail of investing and something which very few investors achieve.”
Meanwhile Rebecca O’Keeffe of Interactive Investor favours a switch into emerging markets. She said: “It’s too early to be absolutely calling the top of the market, but for those who have made some healthy profits in the run up since the start of the year, a degree of redistribution into emerging markets may well prove to be rather astute.”
Chris Godding of Signia Wealth has a similar view. “Developed markets are due a correction of around 5 per cent, but the outlook looks good on a three-year time frame. Investors should look to emerging markets which offer a good entry point at current levels.
“Falling commodity prices may be bad for the top line in countries such as Brazil and Russia, but they relieve inflationary pressures for the emerging consumer in India, China and many other resource importers.”
Bank finally sees sense over £6,000 charge for redeeming mortgage two days early
Five Questions On: GB Energy's new tariff
Questions of Cash: 'I want a refund on my TV licence payments but they've turned my claim into a soap opera'
Bank-beating exchange rates on your international payments
Be warned of the dirty tricks the bailiffs pull
- 1 Malaysia issues arrest warrant for Gordon Brown’s sister-in-law after she publishes stories on leader Najib Razak's financial affairs
- 2 Porn block in India: hundreds of sexual websites banned, internet outraged
- 3 Natalia Molchanova: World's most successful free-diver missing and feared dead after disappearing in Mediterranean
- 4 Dutch King Willem-Alexander declares the end of the welfare state
- 5 Gamers confess the worst things they've done in The Sims
Is Britain really full up? Are migrants taking our jobs? Leading academic answers the most common anti-immigration claims
Calais Migrant Crisis: Deputy Mayor of Calais labels Cameron's use of 'swarm' as 'racist' and 'ignorant'
Chris Leslie: Jeremy Corbyn's anti-austerity agenda will harm the poor, says Labour shadow Chancellor
Jeremy Corbyn: Tony Blair could face war crimes trial over 'illegal Iraq invasion'
Landlords renting properties to illegal immigrants to face up to five years in prison
While we fixate on Calais, the Home Office is quietly deporting dozens of migrants on 'ghost flights'
iJobs Money & Business
£35 - 38k + Benefits & Bonus: Guru Careers: We are seeking an Account Manager ...
£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE £45K: SThree: At SThree, we like to be differe...
£50 - 80k: Guru Careers: We are seeking an Associate Director for the Markets ...
£60 - 100k: Guru Careers: Our client is looking for an Associate Director of S...
Day In a Page
Built on a former chapel site, this impressive four-bedroom home boasts balconies, stunning views and contemporary modern living.
This three-bedroom house is situated in a quiet mews and set over three floors. Features include glazed staircases and high ceilings.
A period townhouse set over four floors, this five-bedroom home was built in the 18th Century and retains many original features.
With five bedrooms, this spacious home offers beautiful gardens and modern interiors - set within the popular market town of Bingley.
Set sail for this four-bedroom farmhouse in Cowes. With five acres of land and an indoor pool, this home oozes character. There is even potential to let a one-bedroom annexe.
A few miles from the seaside at Perranporth, this four-bedroom farmhouse sits amongst nine acres of idyllic grounds - including a lake and two barns used as holiday lets.
In the pretty market town of Bungay, this grade II-listed Mill House is arranged over four floors, offering four bedrooms and three reception areas.
This first-floor flat comes with two bedrooms, an impressive open-plan reception room and two lovely roof terraces.
This five-bedroom home comes with a range of outbuildings including a large barn which could be converted into a self-contained granny-flat or rental.
Moored at Taggs Island and reached via a pretty garden, this two-bedroom houseboat has a vaulted reception room and skylit garden studio - currently a beauty salon.
On the edge of the city, this six-bedroom home comes with an outdoor swimming pool and a large garage block that has annexe potential.
A contemporary house spread over three storeys, this three-bedroom detached home has large sliding doors that open out to the River Quaggy.
Moored in Chelsea's Cheyne Walk, this houseboat offers two double bedrooms and a teak deck that's ideal for al-fresco dining.
This former village bakery, dating back to the 17th century, is now a three-bedroom detached home just a few miles from the East Sussex coast.
On the picturesque Isle of Man, this four-bedroom character home has a ground-floor shop that's currently run as a newsagents and a flat that would make an ideal holiday let.
In a new collection of flats, this first-floor two-bedroom apartment offers ample entertaining space and a prime view of Furze Green from a private balcony.
This three-bedroom stone-built cottage currently trades as the village store with a restaurant in the annexe and family accommodation on the upper floors.
Previously two semi-detached properties, this five-bedroom home is spread over three floors with a large breakfast kitchen, orangery, office and gym on the second floor.
This five-bedroom home enjoys countryside views over the Blyth estuary to Southwold, offering flexible living space with a ground-floor annexe - ideal for use as a holiday let.
Close to the market town of Eye, this four-bedroom detached home offers a double-height living room which takes the place of the original, 19th-century, chapel nave.
Dating back to the 19th century, this four-bedroom home needs modernising. Spanning three storeys, the red-brick house has a fireplace, a small terrace and a cellar.
Just outside of Cambridge, this single-storey home offers three double bedrooms, a living room with vaulted timber ceiling and ladder steps that lead to a mezzanine study area.
This six-bedroom Georgian home is on three floors with open fireplaces, a two oven Aga, an annexe, and cottage gardens with outbuildings and a car barn.
A former coach house, Glebe Farm Stable is now a three-bedroom cottage with a double car barn, an attached office, kennels and an outbuilding that's currently used as a gym.
Located beside an impressive Victorian viaduct, this four-bedroom home has an open-plan living area that is glazed on two sides, with skylights and high ceilings.
A former furniture workshop, this three-bedroom home has high ceilings and painted brick walls, in a village setting only fifteen miles from the coast.
This five-bedroom stone townhouse features a pine staircase and an Inglenuk fireplace, double doors from the lounge give access to an enclosed courtyard.
This five-bedroom, detached home blends traditional and modern design; the sleek kitchen features a gas hob and oven set within an exposed chimney breast.
Capitalise on the fabulous views of Trevone Bay by taking two homes and creating one spacious boutique B&B. Just a cliff-top walk from Padstow.
Surrounded by woodland, this five-bedroom manor house has plenty of outdoor storage space in the form of three converted loose boxes, two smaller outhouses and a woodstore.
This six-bedroom home is set amongst three acres of grounds. Currently a large family home, Clift Hill has potential to make a B&B or countryside retreat, subject to change of use permissions.
This Grade II-listed three-bedroom home is situated on a private road, just a short walk from the sandy beaches of Frinton-on-Sea.
Less than five miles from Malmesbury, this four-bedroom cottage comes with equestrian facilities and gardens that extend to approximately three acres.
Spanning three storeys, this late-Victorian five-bedroom farmhouse is a spacious family home with a modern interior and B&B potential.
With an original church arch, this triplex one-bedroom church conversion has a light, spacious, feel and comes with a secure off-street parking space.
This recently-refurbished three-bedroom home has bi-folding doors that lead out to a decked seating area - ideal for alfresco dining this summer.
Well-located for coastal walks and popular restaurants, this detached four-bedroom home offers views over farmland, to the Solent, the Purbecks and Bournemouth.
If you love high ceilings, school conversions like this one are bang on the money. This two-bedroom flat is minutes from Burgess Park and the foodie haven at Borough Market.
Set within a church conversion in Bermondsey, this two-bedroom maisonette combines existing features, such as original arches and brickwork, with a contemporary finish.
This four-bedroom Edwardian home offers a combination of original features and contemporary design after a renovation by the current owners.
This four-bedroom home offers a vaulted ceiling in a breakfast room that's ideal for summer entertaining with doors that open to the patio and garden.
On the market for the first time in more than 50 years, this six-bedroom home is a project with vast potential - spread over three floors of living space.
Surrounded by rolling countryside, this four-bedroom barn conversion comes with a self-contained, one-bedroom annexe that could serve as an office or a holiday let.
Located near Harrogate town centre, this five-bedroom Victorian terrace is arranged over three storeys while a current study serves as an optional sixth bedroom.
A ground-floor flat in a country house, located a mile from Sway; this two-bedroom home would make an ideal weekend retreat on the edge of the New Forest.
On a popular residential lane in Caterham on the Hill, this four-bedroom family home offers a secluded garden and a convenient location for local schools and public transport.
Just a short walk from Westerham green, this three-bedroom cottage has a light kitchen with exposed brickwork and double doors that lead to a south-facing garden.
In a prime spot opposite the River Thames, this one-bedroom flat has an 18sq ft reception room with glass doors that open out to a private terrace.
Set in the hills above Llanwrda Village, west Wales, this 18th-century three-bedroom farmhouse has holiday-let potential from a separate barn conversion and annexe.
This charming end-of-terrace townhouse is arranged over three floors, with two double bedrooms and a private courtyard garden located at the rear of the property.