The Week In Review: Sir Alan's a TV hit, but his business needs work
So The Apprentice is over for another year. But does the winner really know what he's getting into? Amstrad might once have been a power, with its cheap personal computers, but it's a long time since its glory days. True, at 133.75p, up 0.75p, the shares are in a much better shape than the 20p nadir they hit four years ago. But it's been downhill recently. Amstrad's main business is selling set-top TV boxes, and it has not been easy making money in a saturated market.
Stripping out its cash pile, Amstrad trades on barely eight times this year's forecast earnings, and in reality, it would need Sir Philip Green and Bill Gates in the final two to turn around this one-trick pony. From an investment perspective, even on a modest valuation, the shares are not worth the punt. Sir Alan, with regret, you're fired.
FUTURE
The magazine publishing industry is incredibly competitive – one glance at recent newsflow from the industry giant Emap is enough to prove that – but Future looks to be heading in the right direction after a long period in the doldrums. This is not for widows and orphans, but for investors with a healthy appetite for risk. Buy.
BIFFA
Getting rid of rubbish is a profitable enterprise, and since its demerger from Severn Trent last October, Biffa has performed admirably. Although its shares are far from cheap, Biffa is an attractive target for a handful of larger European competitors. The lack of progress on PFI contracts and the increase in competition for collection contracts is a cause for concern, but there are enough pluses to make the shares worth hanging on to.
JARVIS
Sales at Jarvis have shrunk over the past year, debt is slightly higher, and there is still no dividend. For the future, the company is pinning its domestic hopes on being one of four major contractors to be appointed by Network Rail for the never-ending task of track renewal. In the meantime, it believes there is scope for winning contracts abroad. However, the shares still look in fragile health. Avoid.
BANGO
Bango, which runs the system by which companies deliver content to mobile phones, issued three profit warnings during 2006, and results for the year to March, published this week, missed expectations. Although Bango has signed up a number of key clients, there's still a huge amount of execution risk implicit in its business model. The stock trades at eight times pre-tax earnings – not expensive for a growth stock, but, with much work to do, new investors should wait for more compelling signs of life before tucking in.
REXAM
Aluminium can maker Rexam paid $1.6bn for Owens Illinois Plastics this week. The acquisition will give it a stronger position in pharmaceuticals and healthcare, although due to the hefty price it paid, investors may have to wait before the benefits of the deal become apparent. Nevertheless, Rexam remains a well-run company and the stock should be supported by its 3.7 per cent yield. The drop in the shares this week has created a decent buying opportunity.
KEWILL SYSTEMS
After a few years in the small-cap wilderness, Kewill Systems is slowly coming back into the sights of software analysts. The logistics software developer's market valuation has swelled to nearly £70m on the back of a strong run in the shares since February, and the company this week reported its strongest results in six years. High risk, but worth a punt.
UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA
Business-to-business media company United Business Media has decided to refocus its US-based CMP Technology business toward exhibitions as part of an ongoing strategy to improve the unit's margins. The move involves slashing 200 jobs and refocusing the division. The ongoing margin improvement strategy has lead to expectations of a strong structural story unfolding in 2008 with either significant acquisition activity or a major share buyback expected. Buy.
HAYS
Recruitment agency Hays appears to be in robust health. The company has reduced its reliance on the UK by expanding overseas. Hays remains the key player in a growth sector, and is more defensive and trades at a hefty discount to its sexier rivals. Buy.
AG BARR
AG Barr makes Irn Bru, the biggest-selling grocery product in Scotland. Investors toasted a sparkling update from the company this week as sales were driven by the warm spring weather, which has seen consumers guzzling fizzy pop. The shares have been climbing since the beginning of the year but still represent decent value for a stock with strong growth prospects. Keep on buying.
SPEEDY HIRE
Following on the back of Archie Norman's acquisition of HSS on Wednesday, Speedy Hire confirmed its position in a rapidly consolidating market on Thursday with the £115m takeover of Hewden Tools. Despite being at the smaller end of the mid market, Speedy has been one of the top performers and the acquisition makes compelling logic. There is more to play for here. Keep buying.
Film studio's the reel deal for those in search of a star buy
Producing blockbuster movies is a fickle old game, thanks to the often chaotic funding structure and the habits and whims of stars. Studio owner Pinewood Shepperton yesterday warned that a number of major film projects would begin later than planned this year.
There were no clues as to which films have been delayed – and the hope is that production is delayed and not cancelled. Shareholders have to grin and bear it and hope that shooting on the 22nd Bond gets underway as planned in January.
Fortunately, Pinewood Shepperton has not been sitting on its hands. There has been a successful drive to attract less volatile television work such as The Weakest Link and My Family which now accounts for around 30 per cent of total revenue.
But the attraction for investors has always been the 200 acres of prime land owned by the three studios, at Pinewood, Shepperton and Teddington. That land is estimated to be worth £150m or 327p a share and work has started on unlocking the value through a tie-up with Morley Fund Management.
Yesterday's warning should be considered a blip and a buying opportunity.
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