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The Week in Review: The secret's all in the circulation

Stephen Foley
Saturday 22 March 2003 01:00 GMT
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EasyJet

Short-term investors with an optimistic view of the military outcome in Iraq could make themselves a tidy sum by buying easyJet shares. The "war risk premium" in fuel prices looks like disappearing. And full-service rivals might use the war as an excuse to ground flights to shore up their profitability, leaving easyJet with scope to increase its market share. Long-term investors are still advised to wait before boarding, since it is not clear that easyJet can maintain the growth rates of recent years.

Premier Farnell

When companies need fuses, screwdrivers, engines, semi-conductors and any other bits and pieces to keep their machines running, Premier Farnell delivers them overnight. These are small packages to small customers, and it leaves the company exposed to economic weakness. Buyers of the shares appear to have already priced in a trading recovery, but the jury is still out on the global economy. Too expensive.

Slough Estates

It is proving a difficult, nervy time, even for a company with property investments spread so wide and encompassing industrial, office and retail space. The growing vacancy rate has put pressure on rents, and consequently on the valuation of the Slough Estates portfolio. UK real estate is a risky area for the time being, but Slough shareholders own a slice of one of the cheaper, more financially conservative companies in the sector. Hold.

Aero Inventory

This little company is growing fast, able to defy the downturn in the civil aerospace industry because it is starting from a position of so few big clients. It is keen to make the distinction between a distributor (which it isn't) and a service provider (which describes it). Instead of delivering parts, it makes sure an agreed list of them is already on site at an aeroplane maintenance group's factories. Interesting.

John Menzies

Though the company has also branched in to airline baggage handling and passenger services, its newspaper and magazine distribution business still provides 80 per cent of group turnover. The thirst for celebrity gossip magazines seems unquenchable, the newspaper price war is coming to an end and the division is a steady, reliable business that provides Menzies with plenty of cash to comfortably cover its dividend. Buy for the long term.

Bodycote International

Bodycote is a master of complex industrial processes such as heat treatment, metals testing and "hot isostatic pressing". But its geographical spread has not insulated it from economic downturn and its customer base means it may recover later than other cyclical plays. Even economic optimists should avoid the shares.

Cairn Energy

Cairn Energy owns a lot of holes. A lot of potentially lucrative holes. Oil exploration is probably the stock market's riskiest proposition. Cairn has made big discoveries on the Indian sub-continent, kept debt levels to 10 per cent of assets, has a nice income from 30,000 barrels a day, and does not operate under particularly wild regimes. It is a good bet.

Ulster Television

With the advertising market in the doldrums and Carlton and Granada in a financial bind, you may be forgiven for thinking there is no money to be made from ITV. But Ulster Television has been quietly building its revenues and its profits. The group has interesting radio assets in the Republic, and its internet service provider is in profit. Hold.

City Centre Restaurants

The group, whose brands include Garfunkels and Caffé Uno, has started to look more appetising since Alan Jackson was made executive chairman in 2001. Its biggest growth area is its Frankie & Benny's brand at cinema multiplexes and bowling alleys. City Centre should be resilient in a downturn, since it is far from the posh end. The average customer spends just £12. Worth a nibble.

BPB

The omens are still good for BPB. Most plasterboard companies seem keen to push prices up and housebuilding activity seems to be robust in the US and the UK. Brave restructuring efforts and another small US acquisition have positioned that business well, so the upside potential is still significant. Buy.

Bloomsbury Publishing

The exciting development this year at Bloomsbury Publishing is the fifth Harry Potter book, The Order of the Phoenix. This is priced into the shares, but there are new hardbacks from Margaret Atwood, Sophie Dahl and Ben Schott. The stock is worth holding.

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