Where will you prosper in 2013?
The New Year is the perfect time to review your portfolio, so Emma Dunkley asked the experts for their tips
Sunday 30 December 2012
Related articles
Although you can't predict what the future has in store, the turn of the year is as good a time as any to take a look at how your investments are set for the next 12 months.
With interest rates still at rock-bottom and returns on government bonds languishing at the very low end of the scale, getting your portfolio into shape and making your money work harder should definitely be at the top of your New Year's resolutions list.
While it's unlikely the global economy will grow substantially in 2013, there are some green shoots and a sense of cautious optimism for the next year. “We come out of the traps in 2013 feeling more confident about equities,” says Gary Potter, the fund of funds manager at Thames River. “Over the past few years people have been weaned off equities and other 'risk assets'. But you need to put to one side the biases of those years.”
Rather than look into your rear-view mirror and invest in what has done well in the past, it's important to focus on the road ahead, otherwise you could end up in a nasty crash. “To continue to base your investment strategy with reference to more recent experiences could be quite damaging – people are going to have to embrace some risk next year,” adds Mr Potter.
Government bonds, for example, have done well in the past as the eurozone crisis escalated and investors flocked to safe-havens. However, investing in Western government bonds now could actually be dangerous.
“Government and corporate bonds should be handled carefully,” says John Chatfeild-Roberts, the chief investment officer at Jupiter. “Yields on bonds issued by Western governments such as the US and UK are low but could come under pressure in an inflationary environment where interest rates start to rise.”
Ironically, government bonds are supposed to offer risk-free returns but now just offer return-free risks, says Darius McDermott, the managing director of Chelsea Financial Services. “They are giving next to nothing in terms of current yield on 10-year bonds and just a 1 per cent rise in interest rates would lead to a 9 per cent capital loss on the gilt index. And if yields return to normal levels quickly, the potential capital losses are quite frightening.”
Even though corporate bonds and lower-quality debt are looking slightly better in terms of price and the returns on offer, they're still not great. However, if you're really keen to put some of your money into bonds, then Mr McDermott recommends “strategic bond funds”, which are run by managers who have the flexibility to invest in different types of debt. In particular, Mr McDermott cites the Henderson Strategic Bond fund and the L&G Dynamic Trust.
But 2013 is being viewed as the year for equities, especially dividend-paying companies as people hunt for some form of income. “I still think in all of next year, high quality income generation will be a key feature, because interest rates are so low,” says Mr Potter. For equity income, Mr Potter tips the JO Hambro UK Equity Income Fund, run by Clive Beagles and James Lowen.
It's the UK's smaller companies that have come into their own in 2012 – up around 22 per cent – and are ripe for future gains. Mr Potter recommends the Cazenove Smaller Companies fund, managed by Paul Marriage and John Warren, which aims to grow your money over the long-term.
Don't think you should just stay rooted to home turf though, as you could end up missing out on potentially superior returns abroad. “Given the huge amount of money already in UK equities, I'd again say global dividend funds are worth a look to add an extra level of diversification,” says Mr McDermott. He recommends the M&G Global Dividend fund and the Newton Global Higher Income fund.
A more leftfield or contrarian investment – perhaps not for the fainthearted – is Japanese shares. The land of the rising sun has had many false dawns and is arguably the least loved developed market among UK investors. But the recent election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been warmly welcomed, and bodes well for boosting the country's ailing economy. With this in mind, now could be the time to snap up shares while they're on the cheap.
“Japan is an area we like for next year,” says Gavin Haynes, the managing director at Whitechurch Securities. “Many have thrown the towel in, because it's been a perennial underperformer. But valuations are looking attractive. We've seen change in the political backdrop, combined with a weakening yen – it will be significant this year.”
Mr Haynes recommends the Jupiter Japan Income fund, managed by Simon Somerville, which aims to grow your money and income.
Europe is also still looking cheap and attractive, says Mr Haynes, who recommends the Henderson European Special Situations fund managed by Richard Pease.
Meanwhile, Trevor Greetham, the asset allocation director at Fidelity, is upbeat on the world economy and expects the trend to favour US and emerging market stocks. “US stocks have outperformed Euro Area stocks by around 50 per cent since the middle of 2007 and policy differences still lead us to favour the US,” says Mr Greetham. “US property prices are rising, banks are willing to lend and unemployment is falling.”
But, as the experts concede, despite these pockets of opportunity, 2013 won't be plain sailing. Although equities in certain regions are tipped to do well, there are definitely headwinds on the horizon that could make it a rocky ride, including any relapse in Europe's debt crisis, as well as tax and spending changes in the US.
What to avoid
Aside from Western government bonds, the experts warn of other areas you should be wary of next year. “Opportunities remain in carefully selected corporate bonds but again, rising interest rates would create a headwind for them,” says John Chatfeild-Roberts at Jupiter.
Property as an investment is also an area in which to tread carefully. “We think commercial property is going to struggle,” says Gavin Haynes, the managing director of Whitechurch Securities. “We are not completely negative but we still think it'll continue to be an area where returns are fairly staid next year.”
Gary Potter at Thames River says: “My worries are that those funds that have taken lots of money could be disappointing … it's about the price you pay.”
Emma Dunkley is a reporter for citywire.co.uk
- 1 Freedom fighters? Cannibals? The truth about Syria’s rebels
- 2 Breaking the Silence: In the reality of occupation, there are no Palestinian civilians – only potential terrorists
- 3 Special Report: US troops are stationed in Japan to protect the nation. But to sex workers in Okinawa, they bring fear, not security
- 4 Vice pulls 'breathtakingly tasteless' fashion shoot glorifying the suicides of famous female authors from Sylvia Plath to Virginia Woolf
- 5 Iran to send 4,000 troops to aid President Assad forces in Syria
Get your summer started with British Military Fitness
BMF is the UK’s biggest and best loved outdoor fitness classes
How will you make today delicious?
Tell us how you plan to make today delicious and you could win a £50 M&S gift card.
Learn a new language
Add another string to your bow with Rosetta Stone, whether it's Spanish, Italian or Mandarin...
Making reading fun for kids
Nook is donating eReaders to volunteers at high-need schools and participating in exclusive events throughout the campaign.
Introducing the 'Get Reading' campaign
Get the latest on The Evening Standard's campaign to get London's children reading.
Enter the latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
Business videos from commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.
iJobs Money & Business
Senior Investment Manager - Renewable Energy
£65000 - £85000 Per Annum: The Green Recruitment Company: The Green Recruitmen...
Snr Business Analyst - Banking - Bristol - £585pd
£400 per day: Orgtel: A top tier banking client urgently requires a Senior Bus...
Financial Crime Analyst,Midlands, £250-350PD
£250 - £350 per day: Orgtel: Financial Crime Analyst,Midlands, Banking, AML/Sa...
Graduate Trainee – Recruitment Consultant
£20,000 - £45,000 OTE: Co-Venture: Working for this company will give you a ch...
Day In a Page
Streatham, SW16
Heath End, Berkhamsted HP4
Harwood Road, SW6
Alcester, Warwickshire, B49
Telford, Shropshire, TF1
Peckham, SE15
South Acton, W4
Finsbury, N7
Southfields, SW19
Studley, Warwickshire B80
Wandsworth, London SW11
Banbury, Oxfordshire OX15
Putney Hill, London SW15
Monkton Combe, Bath
Clerkenwell, EC1V
Tetbury, Gloucestershire
Stoke Newington, N16
Wapping, E1W
Norwich, Norfolk, NR12
Bassett Road, North Kensington, W10
South Gloucestershire, GL12,
Greenwich, SE10
Maida Vale, W9
Waltham Abbey, Essex EN9
Clapham, SW4
Torquay, Devon TQ1
Canonbury, N1
Canterbury, CT1
Haywards Heath, RH16
Wandsworth, SW8
Peckham, SE15
Southend-on-Sea, SS1
Battersea, SW11
Woodbridge, Suffolk IP13
Stratford, E15
Keswick, Norwich NR4
Stamford Brook, London W12
Claverton Down, Bath BA2
Gasthorpe, IP22
Battersea, SW11
Brockley, SE4
Cambridge, CB1
Oxford, OX4
Near Tatworth, Somerset TA20
Hoxton Wharf, London N1
Axminster, Devon
Shepherds Bush, W12
Chingford, E4
Tonbridge, Kent, TN10
Fulham, SW6
Streatham, SW16
A smartly presented two-bedroom cottage, extensively refurbished with sun-filled garden and terrace, £350,000
Heath End, Berkhamsted HP4
A Victorian barn conversion at Heath End Farm with four bedrooms. £1.25 million.
Harwood Road, SW6
A spacious two-bedroom flat within an impressive Victorian terrace building, close to Fulham Road and New Kings Road, £375,000.
Alcester, Warwickshire, B49
A two-bedroom flat at Grafton Court, a former manor house in the village of Temple Grafton, with private terrace, £450,000
Telford, Shropshire, TF1
A four-bedroom listed mews in Apley Castle with impressive drawing room, £425,000
Peckham, SE15
A one-bedroom flat with a private garden. £235,000
South Acton, W4
A two-bedroom garden flat with a paved garden. £400,000
Finsbury, N7
A two-bedroom flat close to the Regent's Canal with a private patio and a concierge service. £500,000
Southfields, SW19
A four-bedroom terraced house with a private garden. £850,000
Studley, Warwickshire B80
A Grade II-listed six-bedroom house close to Studley Castle. £600,000.
Wandsworth, London SW11
A two-bedroom flat at the Candlemakers Apartments set over two floors with a balcony. £625,000.
Banbury, Oxfordshire OX15
This three-bedroom Grade II-listed thatch in the pretty village of Wigginton. £450,000.
Putney Hill, London SW15
A new two-bedroom flat with a bright open-plan reception and skyline views. £450,000.
Monkton Combe, Bath
A two-bedroom mews in a new development. £230,000
Clerkenwell, EC1V
A two-bedroom loft apartment with a large reception room. £615,000
Tetbury, Gloucestershire
A four-bedroom house with stone-walled gardens. £438,000
Stoke Newington, N16
A modern home of almost 1,000sq ft is close to Stoke Newington's high street. £499,950
Wapping, E1W
One-bedroom flat close to the City and St Katharine’s Dock. £314,995
Norwich, Norfolk, NR12
A five-bedroom bungalow in Hoveton with riverside garden and mooring dock, £550,000
Bassett Road, North Kensington, W10
A refurbished one-bedroom flat with south-facing reception and high ceilings. £579,950
South Gloucestershire, GL12,
Four-bedroom detached period cottage in Wotton-Under-Edge. £625,000
Greenwich, SE10
A four-bedroom three-storey Victorian home with a south facing garden. £849,950
Maida Vale, W9
A two-bedroom ground-floor apartment which opens onto attractive gardens. £375,000
Waltham Abbey, Essex EN9
A four-bedroom Grade II-listed house in Nazeing with large gardens. £550,000
Clapham, SW4
A three-bedroom flat within a quiet communal courtyard in Clapham Old Town. £665,000
Torquay, Devon TQ1
A five-bedroom home plus a separate flat above Torquay Harbour. £640,000
Canonbury, N1
A new-build two-bedroom house with a roof terrace in a gated mews. £550,000
Canterbury, CT1
Three-bedroom house with a private garden and conservatory. £355,000
Haywards Heath, RH16
A new two-bedroom flat located in central Haywards Heath. £200,000
Wandsworth, SW8
Three-bedroom early-Victorian terraced house. £635,000
Peckham, SE15
A modern four-bedroom house in a converted stable within walking distance to Peckham Rye. £695,000
Southend-on-Sea, SS1
Four-bedroom semi-detached house within walking distance of the sea. £299,995
Battersea, SW11
Three-bedroom house in a quiet residential area within close distance to Battersea Park. £450,000
Woodbridge, Suffolk IP13
A four-bedroom Georgian gatehouse with a self-contained annexe. £525,000.
Stratford, E15
A one-bedroom flat close to Stratford station and Westfield. £250,000.
Keswick, Norwich NR4
A three-bedroom semi-detached cottage in the village of Keswick. £335,000.
Stamford Brook, London W12
A four-bedroom house with a decked garden and a roof terrace. £775,000.
Claverton Down, Bath BA2
A contemporary four-bedroom house close to Bath University. £760,000.
Gasthorpe, IP22
A three-bedroom cottage within commuting distance of London, Norwich and Cambridge. £250,000
Battersea, SW11
Two-bedroom flat close to Battersea Park. £415,000
Brockley, SE4
A three-bedroom flat with two reception rooms and a private garden. £359,950
Cambridge, CB1
A new one-bedroom flat in the city centre of Cambridge. £270,000.
Oxford, OX4
A two-bedroom terrace house with a garden near Radley station. £192,500.
Near Tatworth, Somerset TA20
A two-bedroom cottage with a sun room and gardens in South Chard. £350,000.
Hoxton Wharf, London N1
A two-bedroom fifth-floor flat overlooking Regent's Canal. £470,000
Axminster, Devon
A three-bedroom Devon Longhouse overlooking the Blackdown Hills. £475,000.
Shepherds Bush, W12
A three-bedroom semi-detached house with a roof terrace and garage. £750,000
Chingford, E4
A brand new four-bedroom house with a family-sized rear garden. £375,000
Tonbridge, Kent, TN10
A three-bedroom semi-detached house with original features including fireplaces and wooden flooring. £399,950
Fulham, SW6
A modern two-bedroom flat split across two floors and close to several public transport links. £595,000
First night: The Cripple of Inishmaan
Scandi-geeks descend on Nordicana for fan-convention
Female aristocrats battle to inherit the title
In pictures: JFK's visit to Berlin in 1963





Comments