Your key questions answered
So does this mean the financial crisis is over?
Tuesday, 14 October 2008
Are the banks safe?
A lot safer than they were. The state owns Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock, partially owns the Royal Bank of Scotland and the soon-to-be-merged Lloyds TSB/HBOS group. They should be more confident about lending to each other.
Will it be easier to get a mortgage now?
it ought to be. The part-nationalised banks are committed to returning to 2007 levels of lending. New mortgages are at only 30 per cent of last year's levels, so something had to be done. We'll see big cuts in interest rates too.
What will it mean for staff?
It is hard to see the Government pushing for redundancies to cut costs. Some jobs may be lost anyway but in a slow, orderly fashion.
What about the fat cats?
No bonuses this year and future bonuses will be paid in shares. Packages for traders and top execs should be restructured to align them with the consequences of their actions.
What does it mean for shareholders?
Most of us have some shares in these large banks, because most pension funds have had money tied up in them, and there are small shareholders from the demutualisation of the Halifax andfrom the privatisation of TSB. For the banks that have been part-nationalised, it means a substantial dilution of shareholders' interest. Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock shareholders will be lucky to see anything from their stakes.
What's these banks' futures?
in the medium term, the shares the Government owns will probably be sold back to the private sector. in the long term we may see the emergence of "utility banks" that concentrate on taking deposits, current accounts and savings and making simple loans.
Did the taxpayer have a choice?
Not really. Yesterday's move was the only response the Government had left, short of complete nationalisation. The banks' balance sheets were so weak that the only way to prevent a "systemic" collapse was for the Government to step in. Lending the money was a sticking plaster on a much bigger wound, and there was only one way to treat it; a huge injection of capital from the only people able to do so, the taxpayers.
What will this cost us?
This is a huge subsidy from the taxpayer to the banks. it will have to be paid for. if the banks make operating losses those will have to be funded. The ultimate danger is that the system stays under pressure and the Government has to nationalise it all, so shares bought for £37bn become worthless.
Could the taxpayer make a profit on the deal?
it's conceivable. it depends how rapidly the financial system settles, how bad the recession is, and the rest of the world getting its financial system in order.
How long will this go on for?
Optimistically two years, with the Government then selling the shares.
Why didn't the Government do this sooner?
The scale of the weakness in the banks' balance sheets has only recently become apparent and the crisis in the credit markets was not going away, despite cuts in interest rates and huge loans from central banks. This would have been outlandish a few months ago but an unprecedentedcrisis prompted a reciprocal action.
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Comments
16 Comments
Brown and Darling are desperate to reflate the housing bubble until the next election, hence they will encourage the state-owned lenders to start up again with irresponsibly high loans. Never mind that lending at 2007 levels constitutes the problem with this country, not the solution.
Posted by Paul | 15.10.08, 20:21 GMT
Why was the West so quick to hail the 'collapse' of socialism as an economic system, and so slow to admit that this crisis is nothing less than the total collapse of the capitalist system and the 'free market' mantra? What is 'free' about an economic system that has to be bailed out by the general populace who already pay the banks and the government vast amounts of their income each year? What a joke.
Bring back economic controls, inject some more equality instead of some more equity!
Next time the CEO of a bank checks into a 5-star hotel, dines on Russian caviar and slurps on a Dom Perignon (and yes, they do actually live like that), let's send in one of the many victims of the dreaded mortgagee sale to ask for a bite of his bread roll!
I am sure some know-it-alls will retort "o, economics just doesn't work that way, you're being simplistic and ignorant." It's the economic experts (e.g. A Greenspan) who helped us get into this mess, so don't trust them to get us out.
Posted by Jason | 15.10.08, 07:03 GMT
Uhh no - it;s only just begun.. Once again transfixed by instantaneous solutions but in this case we are facing years of slow growth, hight taxation and a very little security. What I say is - regardless of this we have a short time on the Earth we should enjoy ourselves and sod thepoliticians. Make this a better, friendlier place and not somehwere which is built on greed and envy.
Posted by James C | 14.10.08, 20:37 GMT
Mortgage lending cannot possibly return to anything like their 2007 levels, that is pure fantasy. "something had to be done" you say. Yes - house prices need to fall, and far.
It cannot go back to 2007 because
1) The insane overlending of 2007 and before is what caused the whole crisis in the first place
2) Banks will not and cannot lend the 6x salary at 100% LTV required to make this a reality. Look at Nationwide, 90% LTV maximum.
The fundamentals have not changed - houses are way way overpriced. The debt is still there, and the debt is real.
Your last question should be
"How on earth did the government let this happen?"
Posted by Jon Cooper | 14.10.08, 14:34 GMT
I have just watched an insight into the world of the Dealer on television. When asked what the manic activity was about the spokesman came out with some unintelligible Mumbo Jumbo that said that they were BETTING on the future value of sterling against the Euro. He also said that ALL the Banks do it and it forms the core of any transactions. And we wonder why we are in a mess? Makes sewer cleaning seem like a noble occupation.
Posted by mike randall | 14.10.08, 14:21 GMT
A Lesson in the new world order.
a banker goes into a bookies and puts £50 on a gee gee in the 3.00 at Ascot.
Horse comes very very last.
On the way out of bookies the banker is greeted by a politician who gives him back the £50 he has just lost.
"Where did you get that from?" Asked the bemused banker
"From those feckin morons called taxpayers" replied the chirpy politician.
"Does this mean I can have a bet in the 4.40 at Newmarket?" enquired the bemused banker
"You can bet in every race and every day,horses, dogs, football casino's poker.....you name it Banker and you can bet on,and if you loose just come back to me and I will give you some more taxpayers money"
"Oh the joys of living in a democracy" thought the banker.
Posted by medici | 14.10.08, 13:28 GMT
"No bonuses this year and future bonuses will be paid in shares."
So when the World economy picks up again, these shares will be worth just as much as their past bonuses, for doing exactly the same job!
Posted by Paul | 14.10.08, 13:15 GMT
How are the banks going to return to 2007 lending levels without resorting to the irresponsible practises that have got us in this mess? How can the interest rate cuts continue when we have 5% inflation? This crisis will turn into a recession in the general economy. Do not expect to get our taxpayers money back quickly. Gordan and has friends in the banks have a lot to answer. The no more boom and bust mantra looks a little sick.
Posted by david a | 14.10.08, 13:10 GMT
In a galaxy far far away just right of never never land lived a Dark Prince.
The Dark Prince surrounded himself with money lenders,whose job it was to organise(and spend) the wealth created by the peasants of the planet.
One day the money lender general explained to the Dark Prince that they were running out of money..
WHY? demanded theDark Prince
"Well Prince" answered his general,"the money was spent on all of those grand Balls,and Gala Luncheons you have ordered over the last 10 years".
The Dark Prince then called on his Darling(a strange thing with bushy eyebrows who couldn't count),and together they came up with a bright idea,"lets pinch some money from the peasants"...said they.And indeed this is what they did!!!
And indeed there was dancing in the the streets of the city,as the bankers scored yet another victory over the peasants,and now an extended victory over the Dark Prince.
But now the peasants looked on and indeed their was unrest amogst them..to be continued..
Posted by medici | 14.10.08, 12:26 GMT
This has helped in one area of the economy, it is almost as if people have forgotten that there are hundreds of thousands of people who stretched themselves financially. House prices are still in need of a large correction in price and unemployment is rising. But hey the banks will lend again and so continues the cycle..... somehow I dont think people have the appetite for massive debts as they did before.
Posted by justin | 14.10.08, 11:45 GMT
16 Comments