The Week Ahead: Big banks feel heat from consumer slowdown

On Friday, the City was unsettled by Lloyds TSB, which revealed a 21 per cent rise in retail bad debt during the first half of its financial year.

This comes after Barclays' warning in May that its bad debts would rise more than expected this year because of growing credit card arrears.

HSBC will be the first of the big four to report. Its results are due on Monday, followed by HBOS on Wednesday, Royal Bank of Scotland on Thursday and Barclays on Friday.

Given HSBC's international spread, investors are least worried about its exposure to the slowing consumer environment in the UK. Questions about who will take over from Sir John Bond, as its chairman nears retirement age, are bound to emerge in the wake of its figures.

Meanwhile, Royal Bank of Scotland is likely to be quizzed about its plans for expansion into China. The company is reported to be in negotiations aimed at taking a minority stake in Bank of China.

As for Barclays, the City will want to know how Barclays Capital, its investment-banking division is performing, along with the state of its unsecured lending operations. Unsecured lending is also important for HBOS as is the state of its buy-to-let loan book.

TODAY: Results: Full year - Filtronic. Interims - HSBC; Inchcape; Royalblue Group; Ultra Electronics.

TOMORROW: First-half results from Amvescap will show that cash continues to exit the group's US mutual funds at quite a pace. "We feel the second quarter fund outflows may be the worst in Amvescap's recent poor run," Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein warned last week. The German broker forecasts the group's AIM US and Invesco US divisions to register losses in funds under management.

But Dresdner does not expect these weak fundamentals at Amvescap to negatively impact its shares, given the growing possibility that the company might be taken over. Dresdner forecasts the fund management giant to deliver a 6 per cent fall to £142m in first-half profits.

Results: Full year - PZ Cussons. Interims - Alliance & Leicester; Amvescap; DataCash; Morgan Crucible; Quantica; XP Power.

WEDNESDAY: Given the recent spate of takeovers in the building-materials sector, there is a growing belief in the Square Mile that it is just a matter of time before Hanson is also gobbled up by a larger player. As for its financial performance, its profits continue to rise, helped by the strength of the dollar.

Brokers expect Hanson to report an interim profit of £175m, compared with £155m last year. The only black cloud to hang over the company is its asbestos liabilities, but these are likely to be reduced by planned legal reforms in the US.

Results: Full year - BSkyB. Interims - 4imprint; Hanson; HBOS; Marconi Group; Rio Tinto; Rotork.

THURSDAY: GKN shares have enjoyed a strong revival since the start of May thanks to the engineer's share buy-back programme, its robust balance sheet and cost-cutting agenda.

Williams de Broë does not see why this re-rating should not continue. A possible catalyst for a further jump in its stock would be an acquisition, according to the broker. GKN certainly has the firepower for a big deal. At the latest count, it boasted cash reserves of more than£800m. Williams de Broë expects first-half pre-tax profits of about £95m from GKN, down from about £120m last time, because of the group's recent disposals.

The broker also suggests that the performance of the company's car-making division is likely to have been held back by high raw material prices and lower production volumes in North America and parts of Europe.

The current year is one of transition for Unilever. Analysts want to see the heavyweight consumer goods group return to consistent top-line growth. For the second quarter, it is forecast to achieve growth of 2 to 3 per cent from its leading brands.

In the past it has blamed poor weather for weak ice-cream sales, but analysts do not expect such a setback this year. Investors can expect second-quarter net profits of €1.05bn (£724m) from Unilever, down from €1.07bn last time. Cash flows should remain strong, which will help Unilever reduce its debt burden.

Results: Full year - None. Interims - Alfred McApline; Anglo American; GKN; ICI; International Power; Royal Bank of Scotland; Senior; Smith & Nephew; Unilever.

FRIDAY: Results: Full year - None. Interims - Barclays; British Airways; Greggs.