The Week Ahead: Orders shortfall may dim Aggreko
Monday 28 October 2013
Are investors in Aggreko ready for some power outages for the share price? The temporary power provider will update the market on its third-quarter results today, and analysts expect some problems in the short term.
RBC Capital’s Andrew Brooke warns that it is experiencing a “slow order intake in power projects”, and it “factors in a slowing of the local business” as well as no new large events, while all of its military and Japan business will “drop out next year”. Mr Brooke thinks earnings per share could fall to below 70p. Numis points out that this quarter is normally the weakest for new contract wins, so it is unlikely we will get positive news. Mr Brooke expects short-term cashflow forecasts to remain intact due to lower capital expenditure, and his medium-term assumptions are unchanged despite the short-term problems.
Results/updates: Aggreko, Volex.
The wider public may never forgive BP for its Mexican oil spill disaster but analysts have hoped it would become a bit more risky when it comes to the widening of its exploration programme. Analysts at Barclays note that the oil giant has already “diversified geographically beyond its previous heartlands” into areas such as Australia, Brazil, Nova Scotia, Libya and Uruguay, which is a sign management is prepared to take on “more geological risk”. But this risk isn’t quite enough for the City. Barclays experts think much of its recovery is from the Gulf of Mexico volumes rather than a better upstream portfolio. They admit its doubling of exploration spend in the past three years has helped BP reverse its underperformance but they still rate it underperform ahead of its third-quarter update tomorrow. The update comes ahead of rivals Shell and BG on Thursday. Analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove expect BP’s third-quarter earnings to reach £2.1bn, with earnings per share up 23 per cent quarter on quarter. But they rate the shares a hold because of uncertainties on further Macondo costs.
Results/Updates: Braemar Shipping Services, BP, Dragon Oil, Glanbia, Lloyds Banking Group, National Express, Playtech, Standard Chartered, Wolfson Microelectronics.
Time for Standard Life give an update on the insurance market. Analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove think its “new-style” UK business will treble earnings to £262m by 2015, and they reckon it has both top-line and bottom-line growth to come. Investors will also be awaiting future cash dividends. JP thinks there is £800m of excess capital at the holding company and £300m at Canadian operations.
Results/Updates: Advanced Computer Software, African Barrick Gold, Barclays, C&C Group, Genel Energy, Kerry Group, Sportech, Standard LIfe.
Feeling peckish? It is time for Premier Foods to step up with its trading update on Thursday. The owner of Mr Kipling cakes and Hovis bread has a new finance chief who joined from Dairy Crest. Analysts at Shore Capital said the key to the turnaround of the business is its balance-sheet re-engineering, which “is critical to Premier’s future”, but they welcomed the appointment of Alastair Murray. Shore believes a major capital raising is needed.
Results/Updates: Afren, Antofagasta, AstraZeneca, Avocet Mining, BG, Colt, Countrywide, Croda International, Glencore Xstrata, Henderson Group, Premier Foods, Royal Dutch Shell, Smith & Nephew, Stagecoach.
While this week is mainly a banking week with both Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland to update, Friday is also a day for RBS spin-off Direct Line to show what a good job it has been doing of selling car insurance. Numis expects the nine-month operating profit from continuing operations to be £414m. It outperformed the market in the first half and Numis thinks this third-quarter update on Friday will “overall read well”. It reckons it has “good scope for self-help earnings upside and potential future capital return”.
Results/Updates: Berendsen, Direct Line Insurance, F&C Asset Management, Meggitt, Royal Bank of Scotland.
Hometrack housing survey, CBI reported sales, Nationwide house prices.
Net consumer credit, Net lending secured on dwellings, Mortgage approvals, M4 money supply.
US ADP employment and US consumer price index.
GfK consumer confidence, US weekly jobless claims, EU challenger job cuts.
Purchasing managers’ index – manufacturing, US motor vehicle sales.
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