BAe likely to fire the first shot

VSEL shareholders anticipate big gains in battle of the bids

BRITISH Aerospace is expected to reopen hostilities in the defence industry this week by launching a bid of around pounds 700m for the nuclear submarine manufacturer VSEL after a battle of nerves in which neither side has wanted to be the first to make an offer.

GEC is almost certain to counter-bid, reigniting the battle that began earlier this year and was interrupted by a Monopolies & Mergers Commission inquiry.

Many in the City are surprised that neither side launched a bid last week, even though Michael Heseltine, President of the Board of Trade, gave both companies the go-ahead on Tuesday.

"BAe has no reason to delay any longer," said Sandy Morris, engineering analyst at NatWest Securities. "So far they have improved their image by their handling of this bid. They have been the aggressor all along. They would lose their advantage if they are now seen dithering and waiting around for GEC."

Observers close to BAe said the company's preparations for a bid appeared to be further advanced than those of GEC.

BAe's 3.3-for-one share offer valued VSEL shares at around pounds 14 when the MMC stepped in before Christmas. Because of a rise in the company's shares, however, the same bid would now be worth nearly pounds 18. This substantially increases the cost of a bid for GEC if it renews its purely cash offer.

One banker pointed out that VSEL is worth more than it was six months ago, because it is more financially robust. The balance sheet published last week showed it had cash of pounds 411m at the end of March, against pounds 360m six months earlier. VSEL has a healthy order book and is about to start building its first large surface warships for many years.

City analysts believe that the bidding could go to pounds 20 per share. "GEC would be stupid not to push it as far as possible even if BAe wins," said one observer. "Because of the tax advantages, BAe can probably afford to pay more for VSEL in the end."

VSEL is expected to keep to the stance it held during the previous bid battle - showing no preference for either side. "We would be equally happy with either," Lord Chalfont, the company's chairman, said last week. He acknowledged that this left shareholders with the happy prospect of watching a battle that is likely to increase the value of their holdings significantly.

Lord Chalfont also said he expected there to be further rationalisation in the defence industry, even if this led to a loss of domestic competition. "I think it's an inevitable trend," he said.

PROMOTED VIDEO
Travel
travel
News
Tim Vine has won the funniest joke award at the Edinburgh Festival 2014
peopleTim Vine, winner of the Funniest Joke of the Fringe award, has nigh-on 200 in his act. So how are they conceived?
News
people
Life and Style
techApp to start sending headlines, TV clips and ads to your phone
Arts and Entertainment
Taylor Swift crawls through the legs of twerking dancers in her 'Shake It Off' music video
musicEarl Sweatshirt thinks so
Life and Style
tech
News
ebooksAn evocation of the conflict through the eyes of those who lived through it
Arts and Entertainment
Daniel Radcliffe and Zoe Kazan in What If
filmReview: Actor swaps Harry Potter for Cary Grant in What If
News
Our resilience to stress is to a large extent determined by our genes
science
Travel
travel
Sport
sportBesiktas 0 Arsenal 0: Champions League qualifying first-leg match ends in stalemate in Istanbul
News
Pornography is more accessible - and harder to avoid - than ever
news... but they still admit watching it
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Sales Performance Manager, Gloucester - £290 p/day

£200 - £290 per annum + competitive: Orgtel: Sales Performance Manager, Key Ba...

Junior Database developer (SQL, T-SQL, Excel, SSRS, Crystal rep

£25000 - £30000 per annum + bonus+benefits+package: Harrington Starr: Junior D...

Java/Calypso Developer

£600 - £800 per day: Harrington Starr: Java/Calypso Developer Java, Calypso, ...

Quantitative Developer

£700 per day: Harrington Starr: Quantitative Developer C++, Python, STL, R, PD...

Day In a Page

Ferguson: In the heartlands of America, a descent into madness

A descent into madness in America's heartlands

David Usborne arrived in Ferguson, Missouri to be greeted by a scene more redolent of Gaza and Afghanistan
BBC’s filming of raid at Sir Cliff’s home ‘may be result of corruption’

BBC faces corruption allegation over its Sir Cliff police raid coverage

Reporter’s relationship with police under scrutiny as DG is summoned by MPs to explain extensive live broadcast of swoop on singer’s home
Lauded therapist Harley Mille still in limbo as battle to stay in Britain drags on

Lauded therapist still in limbo as battle to stay in Britain drags on

Australian Harley Miller is as frustrated by court delays as she is with the idiosyncrasies of immigration law
Lewis Fry Richardson's weather forecasts changed the world. But could his predictions of war do the same?

Lewis Fry Richardson's weather forecasts changed the world...

But could his predictions of war do the same?
Kate Bush asks fans not to take photos at her London gigs: 'I want to have contact with the audience, not iPhones'

'I want to have contact with the audience, not iPhones'

Kate Bush asks fans not to take photos at her London gigs
Under-35s have rated gardening in their top five favourite leisure activities, but why?

Young at hort

Under-35s have rated gardening in their top five favourite leisure activities. But why are so many people are swapping sweaty clubs for leafy shrubs?
Tim Vine, winner of the Funniest Joke of the Fringe award: 'making a quip as funny as possible is an art'

Beyond a joke

Tim Vine, winner of the Funniest Joke of the Fringe award, has nigh-on 200 in his act. So how are they conceived?
The late Peter O'Toole shines in 'Katherine of Alexandria' despite illness

The late Peter O'Toole shines in 'Katherine of Alexandria' despite illness

Sadly though, the Lawrence of Arabia star is not around to lend his own critique
Wicken Fen in Cambridgeshire: The joy of camping in a wetland nature reserve and sleeping under the stars

A wild night out

Wicken Fen in Cambridgeshire offers a rare chance to camp in a wetland nature reserve
Comic Sans for Cancer exhibition: It’s the font that’s openly ridiculed for its jaunty style, but figures of fun have their fans

Comic Sans for Cancer exhibition

It’s the font that’s openly ridiculed for its jaunty style, but figures of fun have their fans
Besiktas vs Arsenal: Five things we learnt from the Champions League first-leg tie

Besiktas vs Arsenal

Five things we learnt from the Champions League first-leg tie
Rory McIlroy a smash hit on the US talk show circuit

Rory McIlroy a smash hit on the US talk show circuit

As the Northern Irishman prepares for the Barclays, he finds time to appear on TV in the States, where he’s now such a global superstar that he needs no introduction
Boy racer Max Verstappen stays relaxed over step up to Formula One

Boy racer Max Verstappen stays relaxed over step up to F1

The 16-year-old will become the sport’s youngest-ever driver when he makes his debut for Toro Rosso next season
Fear brings the enemies of Isis together at last

Fear brings the enemies of Isis together at last

But belated attempts to unite will be to no avail if the Sunni caliphate remains strong in Syria, says Patrick Cockburn
Charlie Gilmour: 'I wondered if I would end up killing myself in jail'

Charlie Gilmour: 'I wondered if I'd end up killing myself in jail'

Following last week's report on prison suicides, the former inmate asks how much progress we have made in the 50 years since the abolition of capital punishment