Bonds on a roll as Italy hits EMU targets

Brave investors who placed their faith in the Italian government's commitment to qualifying for Europe's single currency have been rewarded with the best bond market returns in Europe this year - and there's more to come.

The bond rally that has delivered returns in lire of more than 28 per cent this year - ahead of the UK in second place with gains of nearly 19 per cent - has had just two cuts in official interest rates to help it along.

Last week consumer price reports confirmed that annual inflation was unchanged at 1.6 per cent in November, well below the 2 per cent ceiling demanded by the Bank of Italy. This suggests the party isn't over yet as it looks likely that the central bank will sanction more rate cuts in the coming months.

"Italian bonds are destined to rise further as Italy's entry to European Monetary Union is now certain," says Corso Pecori Giraldi, who helps manage L5,200bn (pounds 1.8bn) in bonds at Ducato Gestioni. "It's a European story, and Italian rates must come down to be a part of that story."

Italian bonds have been on a roll this year as government efforts to get its budget deficit down to the 3 per cent level demanded of countries to qualify for the single European currency from the launch date of 1 January 1999 have gained credibility.

Since November 1996, Italy has halved its budget deficit, trimming the shortfall between public spending and revenue to L10,500bn from L19,500bn.

That cut the deficit in the first 11 months of this year to L78,000bn, down from L138,000bn just a year earlier. Economists reckon that this puts Italy well on track to meet the EMU deficit target this year, and perhaps even to beat it by a whisker.

The reward for economic discipline? Italy's 10-year borrowing costs have dropped to a record low of 5.85 per cent, from about 7.5 per cent at the beginning of the year.

Moreover, the yield premium investors demand for buying Italian rather than German bonds - Europe's benchmark securities - has shrunk to a record low of 45 basis points from 200 basis points in March.

"The Italian/bund spread is destined to narrow in the coming year," says Mr Giraldi. "I see it at 30 basis points."

The approach of EMU has driven European bond yields closer together, as the bonds of countries using the same currency are expected to trade at similar levels.

Italy's performance in closing the gap to Germany, however, still lags behind that of its fellow southern European states, Portugal and Spain. Portuguese bonds yield about 36 basis points more than German issues, while Spanish yields offer a premium of about 29 basis points to Europe's bellwether market.

"Italy's been a great performance," says Sven Rump, manager at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich. "I'm not convinced that Portugal should trade closer to Germany than Italy."

Mr Rump says he sees scope for the Italian yield premium to shed about another 10 basis points, although he feels that gains beyond that are likely to prove difficult.

Just as 10-year yield gaps are disappearing, so the differentials between official interest rates are expected to vanish. German and French central bankers are all insisting that the interest rate which will govern European monetary policy after 1999 will be closer to their 3.3 per cent level than it will to the 6.25 per cent prevailing in Italy.

Italy's discount rate has been cut twice this year, by three quarters of a point in January and by half a point in June. In September, the government unveiled a budget for next year that aims to slash some L25,000bn off the 1998 deficit and help Italy meet the single currency terms.

The bill consists of about L15,000bn in spending cuts and around L10,000bn of taxes.

The lower house of Italy's parliament is currently debating that bill, which must be approved by 31 December if it is to become law. The governor of the Bank of Italy, Antonio Fazio, has said he wants assurances that the budget will be passed before he will sanction lower rates.

With annual inflation one percentage point lower than it was at the beginning of the year, investors believe Mr Fazio might be willing to deliver a pre-Christmas rate cut as early as today.

That could be just the boost Italian bonds need to put on a final sprint into 1998.

"We could see a 50-basis-point rate cut after Thursday's inflation numbers, and another 50-basis-point cut after the budget approval," predicted Mr Giraldi at Ducato Gestioni.

q Additional reporting by Jason Jacobs.

Copyright: IOS & Bloomberg

News
John Travolta is a qualified airline captain and employed the pilot with his company, Alto
people'That was the lowest I’d ever felt'
Life and Style
healthIt isn’t greasy. It doesn’t smell. And moreover, it costs nothing
News
i100

Other places that have held independence referendums
Arts and Entertainment
Pharrell dismissed the controversy surrounding
musicThe singer said 'the last thing I want to do is degrade'
PROMOTED VIDEO
News
news

Sport
footballThe latest scores and Twitter updates from tonight’s games, featuring Bayern Munich vs Man City and Chelsea vs Schalke
News
A male driver reverses his Vauxhall Astra from a tow truck
newsThe 'extremely dangerous' attempt to avoid being impounded has been heavily criticised
News
peopleThe Times of India said actress should treat it as a 'compliment'
Arts and Entertainment
Jack Huston is the new Ben-Hur
film

It scooped up an unprecedented 11 Academy Awards when it was first remade in 1959

News
news

Watch this commuter wage a one-man war against the Circle Line
News
ebooksAn unforgettable anthology of contemporary reportage
Property
Home body: Badger stays safe indoors
lifeShould we feel guilty about keeping cats inside?
Life and Style
fashion

Olympic diver has made his modelling debut for Adidas

Arts and Entertainment
Toby Jones (left) and Mackenzie Crook in BBC4’s new comedy The Detectorists
tvMackenzie Crook's 'Detectorists' makes the hobby look 'dysfunctional', they say
Arts and Entertainment
Maxine Peake plays Hamlet at Manchester's Royal Exchange
theatreReview: Maxine Peake brings emotional ferocity to Shakespeare's starring part
Extras
10 best table lamps
indybest
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Trainee Recruitment Consultant Birmingham

£18000 - £23000 per annum + Comission: SThree: The SThree group is a world lea...

Trainee Recruitment Consultant - Birmingham - Real Staffing

£18000 - £23000 per annum + Commission: SThree: Real Staffing are currently lo...

Recruitment Consultant - Soho - IT, Pharma, Public Sector

£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE £35,000 first year: SThree: The SThree group i...

Sales Executive

£20 - 24k (Uncapped Commission - £35k Year 1 OTE): Guru Careers: We are seekin...

Day In a Page

Mystery of the Ground Zero wedding photo

A shot in the dark

Mystery of the wedding photo from Ground Zero
His life, the universe and everything

His life, the universe and everything

New biography sheds light on comic genius of Douglas Adams
Save us from small screen superheroes

Save us from small screen superheroes

Shows like Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D are little more than marketing tools
Reach for the skies

Reach for the skies

From pools to football pitches, rooftop living is looking up
These are the 12 best hotel spas in the UK

12 best hotel spas in the UK

Some hotels go all out on facilities; others stand out for the sheer quality of treatments
These Iranian-controlled Shia militias used to specialise in killing American soldiers. Now they are fighting Isis, backed up by US airstrikes

Widespread fear of Isis is producing strange bedfellows

Iranian-controlled Shia militias that used to kill American soldiers are now fighting Isis, helped by US airstrikes
Topshop goes part Athena poster, part last spring Prada

Topshop goes part Athena poster, part last spring Prada

Shoppers don't come to Topshop for the unique
How to make a Lego masterpiece

How to make a Lego masterpiece

Toy breaks out of the nursery and heads for the gallery
Meet the ‘Endies’ – city dwellers who are too poor to have fun

Meet the ‘Endies’ – city dwellers who are too poor to have fun

Urbanites are cursed with an acronym pointing to Employed but No Disposable Income or Savings
Paisley’s decision to make peace with IRA enemies might remind the Arabs of Sadat

Ian Paisley’s decision to make peace with his IRA enemies

His Save Ulster from Sodomy campaign would surely have been supported by many a Sunni imam
'She was a singer, a superstar, an addict, but to me, her mother, she is simply Amy'

'She was a singer, a superstar, an addict, but to me, her mother, she is simply Amy'

Exclusive extract from Janis Winehouse's poignant new memoir
Is this the role to win Cumberbatch an Oscar?

Is this the role to win Cumberbatch an Oscar?

The Imitation Game, film review
England and Roy Hodgson take a joint step towards redemption in Basel

England and Hodgson take a joint step towards redemption

Welbeck double puts England on the road to Euro 2016
Relatives fight over Vivian Maier’s rare photos

Relatives fight over Vivian Maier’s rare photos

Pictures removed from public view as courts decide ownership
‘Fashion has to be fun. It’s a big business, not a cure for cancer’

‘Fashion has to be fun. It’s a big business, not a cure for cancer’

Donatella Versace at New York Fashion Week