The first indications of German inflation in October are likely to come today when the consumer price index is published. A 0.2 per cent monthly rise is expected, bringing annual inflation down from 4 per cent to 3.8 per cent. Anything worse would be surprising in the wake of last week's unexpected rate cut by the Bundesbank. European Community finance ministers will meet ahead of the special summit on Friday.
As the only important economic release this week, the CBI's quarterly trends for the third quarter will be scrutinised carefully by Budget-obsessed pundits. The US consumer confidence index is expected to offer reasonably encouraging news, up from 62.6 to 64.3.
No significant results or data expected.
The advance US GDP estimate for the third quarter is the week's most keenly awaited economic indicator. Estimates range from 1.9 per cent to 3.5 per cent, annualised, with an average of 2.5 per cent. Second quarter growth was 1.9 per cent. ICI publishes its third quarter figures. Weaker sterling and cost-cutting should have increased operating profit by about pounds 45m on the same period last year. NatWest forecasts pre-tax profit of pounds 55m but expects a cautious trading statement. Wellcome publishes its full-year results. NatWest forecasts a 32 per cent rise in pre-tax profit to pounds 665m. A strong performance by the drug Zovirax will be boosted by currency gains and an improvement in operating margins.
The special European Community summit starts in Brussels. It will decide the site of the European Monetary Institute, which will be established in 1994. Frankfurt is expected to win, against opposition from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. French unemployment is expected to tick up to 11.8 per cent, following a steady 11.7 per cent between July and August.
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