Outlook Time is running out for Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. While the Argentinian President has been talking tough about defying the hedge fund “vultures” carrying out “extortion” on her country, in reality her options are rapidly disappearing.
The US Supreme Court’s ruling that she must pay in full the hedge funds led by NML and Aurelius – and by the end of the month, according to some accounts – means she must negotiate, and negotiate fast.
Plenty of analysts are predicting she will not, and that she will once more hit Argentina’s default button. That may play well in superficial, populist, political terms at home, but it would be disastrous for her country’s relations with the US, and for its economy. And she knows it.
The two sides may seem entrenched. But a deal will probably be done. The hedgies will agree limited concessions, which will be extended to other bondholders too. It will cost Argentina many billions of dollars, but the alternative is far worse.