Ben Chu: This was not the crisis summit... the worst is yet to come
Greece was not a focus here but it still loomed large, as the Athens government continued to haggle with its creditors
Tuesday 31 January 2012
Latest in Business Comment
On Facebook
For once, this was not billed as a summit to save the eurozone. We have had so many of those in recent months that officials presumably decided the eurozone could do with a break from being saved.
Instead, eurozone leaders were trying to put flesh on previous agreements, in the hope that the financial markets would see some action being taken by governments.
Eurozone states have signed up to the new "fiscal compact", agreeing to keep their budgets more or less in balance. Given David Cameron's hard line deficit reduction policies at home, it is ironic he felt unable to sign up for this austerity club. Ironic, too, that other non-eurozone members states, led by Poland, spent much of yesterday struggling to ensure they were not shut out of this circle of fiscal discipline, which some economists argue will make the eurozone still more, not less, unstable.
The reality is that this new pan-European architecture falls well short of the sort of fiscal union that markets want to see. It promises to be a system of fiscal rules, without the promise of money transfers to struggling states to help them deliver on their commitments. It is all stick and no carrot – and thus lacks credibility.
There was a small concession to Keynesian demand stimulus yesterday in the release of money from the European Union budget to increase the number of jobs for young people. But any good that such funds does will be swamped by the contractionary economic forces that Germany is still unleashing across Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland. It remains to be seen whether the fiscal pact will result in the Irish government staging a referendum, which may yet derail the whole train.
And what about the enhanced eurozone "firewall" that everyone has been demanding? It was agreed that the European Stability Mechanism will be implemented later this year. But it remains unclear whether the fund will be boosted in size, with extra guarantees from governments. Germany, the crucial nation in this crisis, still seems to be refusing to loosen its purse strings.
Greece was not a focus here but it still loomed large in Brussels, as the Athens government continued to haggle with its private-sector creditors over a crucial debt write-down.
There were also ominous signs that the dreaded contagion has begun. Yesterday's spike in Portugal's market borrowing costs showed investors are now betting that Lisbon will follow Athens down the road to selective default.
It was wise of officials not to label this the decisive summit of this crisis. Everyone knows there will be plenty more to come.
- 1 Brazil rocked by abortion for 9-year-old rape victim
- 2 News in pictures
- 3 Naked Miami man shot dead after being found eating another man's face
- 4 In pictures: The bewildering face of China
- 5 Principled Skinner rises above the fray
- 6 News International 'tried to blackmail select committee'
- 7 Postgraduate students are being used as 'slave labour'
- 8 UN condemns Syria after massacre of civilians
- 9 Coastguard warning after man drowns saving two children
- 10 Pope's butler: 'more arrests may follow'
- 1 Robert Fisk: The going price of getting away with murder... would $33m be enough?
- 2 Brazil rocked by abortion for 9-year-old rape victim
- 3 Hardcore, hard-wired: How the prevalence of porn is changing our everyday lives
- 4 Principled Skinner rises above the fray
- 5 Fat? Really? Olympic hope laughs off official’s jibe – but others aren’t amused
- 6 News International 'tried to blackmail select committee'
- 7 'Hello mum, this is going to be hard for you to read ...'
- 8 Postgraduate students are being used as 'slave labour'
- 9 Coke reveals its secret: It may need to carry a cancer warning
- 10 French in uproar over oral sex anti-smoking posters
Experience the Heineken Hub
Get free wi-fi and exclusive i content while you enjoy a tasty pint of Heineken at participating pubs.
Can you imagine a career in teaching?
Be inspired to teach - let real teachers show you how rewarding the job can be.
Playing a game-changing role during the Games
Cisco is providing the solutions for London 2012's complex IT needs.
Enter the latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
Business videos from commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.



Comments