http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/?service=Rss http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-what-the-world-needs-now-is-a-round-of-golf-ndash-between-leaders-of-the-g20-1816793.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-what-the-world-needs-now-is-a-round-of-golf-ndash-between-leaders-of-the-g20-1816793.html <p>The G20 finance ministers are gathering this weekend in St Andrews, not to play golf but to knock economic policy ideas about. The G20 embraces the main developed economies and the largest emerging ones, and is, as you may recall, replacing the smaller G7 club of developed nations as the main body co-ordinating the world economy.</p> Hamish McRae Sun, 08 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-growth-is-returning-but-what-will-happen-when-qe-is-wound-up-1815849.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-growth-is-returning-but-what-will-happen-when-qe-is-wound-up-1815849.html ]]> <p>So the monetary policy accelerator remains on the floor. It remains on the floor here and will remain on the floor in the US too for a while yet – and there is only the slightest hint that the European Central Bank will ease back at all soon. Not only do interest rates remain unchanged, as was of course expected, but more money is being pumped in both here and in the States. </p> Hamish McRae Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-quantitative-easing-must-end-soon-the-question-is-what-happens-next-1812636.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-quantitative-easing-must-end-soon-the-question-is-what-happens-next-1812636.html <p>So, according to the official figures, the US economy has scrambled back to growth again in the third quarter while we in Britain are still in recession. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-lets-celebrate-us-growth-but-this-recovery-will-be-far-from-smooth-1811641.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-lets-celebrate-us-growth-but-this-recovery-will-be-far-from-smooth-1811641.html ]]> <p>So now let's think about the shape of the global recovery. The United States is a bit less than one-third of the world economy but it is and will remain hugely important. There has been a turning point of sorts there, which will help nudge the rest of the world economy round the corner. In a few months even the laggards, which seem to include the UK, will be growing again. </p> Hamish McRae Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-figures-are-shocking-the-cures-are-not-working-ndash-but-it-isnt-all-that-bad-1808840.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-figures-are-shocking-the-cures-are-not-working-ndash-but-it-isnt-all-that-bad-1808840.html <p>So we are not yet out of recession after all. Those of us who have long warned that 2009 would be the bad year have been proved more right than we would have liked. But even the most gloomy of us will have been upset by these numbers, for this is worse by a fair margin than we have expected. All those headlines that the recession had ended in September? They were wrong. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 25 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-any-green-shoots-have-failed-to-take-root-so-far-1808389.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-any-green-shoots-have-failed-to-take-root-so-far-1808389.html <p>We are not through this yet. The worst predictions for the economy in the third quarter were that it would be flat. Most people expected it to have grown a little, hence the headlines at the end of last month that the recession was over.</p> Hamish McRae Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/rescuing-the-banks-has-cost-the-uk-20-per-cent-of-gdp-1807932.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/rescuing-the-banks-has-cost-the-uk-20-per-cent-of-gdp-1807932.html Hamish McRae Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:02:31 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-should-we-go-back-to-the-future-to-avert-another-banking-crisis-1807616.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-should-we-go-back-to-the-future-to-avert-another-banking-crisis-1807616.html <p>Break up the banks or make them have plans for their own demise? This week has seen a sharp divergence of opinion as to how banking reform should proceed. This is a global issue rather than a UK one, and there will have to be some kind of global consensus. Still, the different views here between the Treasury and the Financial Services Authority on the one hand and the Bank of England on the other are worth trying to unpick because it highlights the arguments of this global issue.</p> Hamish McRae Fri, 23 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-on-the-road-to-recovery-a-modest-optimism-points-the-way-ahead-1804645.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-on-the-road-to-recovery-a-modest-optimism-points-the-way-ahead-1804645.html <p> A turning point at last? This week we should get confirmation in the GDP figures that the UK economy has bottomed out in the July-September quarter. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 18 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-bulls-are-back-so-expect-the-footsie-to-hit-6000-next-year-1803609.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-bulls-are-back-so-expect-the-footsie-to-hit-6000-next-year-1803609.html <p>It is time to take stock, for the bulls are clearly back. The rebound of the markets since March has blown away nearly all the "depressionists", that school of commentators who believed that the world was facing something similar to the Depression of the 1930s. Those of us who wrote then (albeit with a public health warning) that shares might perform very well in the medium term can feel more comfortable about our judgement. </p> Hamish McRae Fri, 16 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-this-publicspending-squeeze-will-be-much-tighter-than-people-expect-1800795.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-this-publicspending-squeeze-will-be-much-tighter-than-people-expect-1800795.html <p>People still don't get it. And we don't get it because we aren't being given it. The "it" is the scale of the squeeze on public spending that is about to happen, whosoever wins the coming election. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 11 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100