http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/?service=Rss http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-tax-rises-are-inevitable-ndash-but-will-need-a-lot-of-explaining-to-voters-1824060.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-tax-rises-are-inevitable-ndash-but-will-need-a-lot-of-explaining-to-voters-1824060.html ]]> <p>The economy is getting better; the public finances are getting worse. That is the core message from the latest data on our economy and, while any economic recovery is naturally most welcome, the scale of the fiscal catastrophe is such that the pullout from recession will be longer and more painful than it need have been. History will, I think, come to judge this government very harshly.</p> Hamish McRae Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-our-highend-industries-need-a-more-sympathetic-civil-service-1820821.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-our-highend-industries-need-a-more-sympathetic-civil-service-1820821.html <p> If, as most people now accept, the next government – which will inherit the gravest fiscal position of any government since 1945 – will have to be more enabling and regulating, rather than taxing 'n' spending, it will need new skills. But aside from "more responsive" and "more efficient" mantras, what are they? </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:00:38 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-celebrate-europes-return-to-growth-then-prepare-to-face-the-next-crisis-1820820.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-celebrate-europes-return-to-growth-then-prepare-to-face-the-next-crisis-1820820.html <p> Phew! Europe is growing again. Yes, I know that according to the official statistics the UK is not yet part of that growth but the more I look at the other data the more convinced I am that our stats are wrong and that eventually it will be shown that some growth began in Britain in the third quarter. But we will see. The more important point is that most of the economies of this time zone are moving forward again. That gives a base from which to think about the coming months. What have we learnt and what should we look for? </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:00:17 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-a-world-that-is-now-divided-into-the-haves-and-the-havedebts-1819889.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-a-world-that-is-now-divided-into-the-haves-and-the-havedebts-1819889.html ]]> <p>The world is dividing the cash-rich and the debt-heavy – the "haves" and the "have debts" so to speak. This always happens to some extent as economies emerge from a downturn but the severe damage to the banking system and the low-inflation environment has made the distinction much sharper than in previous cycles.</p> Hamish McRae Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-what-the-world-needs-now-is-a-round-of-golf-ndash-between-leaders-of-the-g20-1816793.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-what-the-world-needs-now-is-a-round-of-golf-ndash-between-leaders-of-the-g20-1816793.html <p>The G20 finance ministers are gathering this weekend in St Andrews, not to play golf but to knock economic policy ideas about. The G20 embraces the main developed economies and the largest emerging ones, and is, as you may recall, replacing the smaller G7 club of developed nations as the main body co-ordinating the world economy.</p> Hamish McRae Sun, 08 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-growth-is-returning-but-what-will-happen-when-qe-is-wound-up-1815849.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-growth-is-returning-but-what-will-happen-when-qe-is-wound-up-1815849.html ]]> <p>So the monetary policy accelerator remains on the floor. It remains on the floor here and will remain on the floor in the US too for a while yet – and there is only the slightest hint that the European Central Bank will ease back at all soon. Not only do interest rates remain unchanged, as was of course expected, but more money is being pumped in both here and in the States. </p> Hamish McRae Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-quantitative-easing-must-end-soon-the-question-is-what-happens-next-1812636.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-quantitative-easing-must-end-soon-the-question-is-what-happens-next-1812636.html <p>So, according to the official figures, the US economy has scrambled back to growth again in the third quarter while we in Britain are still in recession. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-lets-celebrate-us-growth-but-this-recovery-will-be-far-from-smooth-1811641.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-lets-celebrate-us-growth-but-this-recovery-will-be-far-from-smooth-1811641.html ]]> <p>So now let's think about the shape of the global recovery. The United States is a bit less than one-third of the world economy but it is and will remain hugely important. There has been a turning point of sorts there, which will help nudge the rest of the world economy round the corner. In a few months even the laggards, which seem to include the UK, will be growing again. </p> Hamish McRae Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-figures-are-shocking-the-cures-are-not-working-ndash-but-it-isnt-all-that-bad-1808840.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-figures-are-shocking-the-cures-are-not-working-ndash-but-it-isnt-all-that-bad-1808840.html <p>So we are not yet out of recession after all. Those of us who have long warned that 2009 would be the bad year have been proved more right than we would have liked. But even the most gloomy of us will have been upset by these numbers, for this is worse by a fair margin than we have expected. All those headlines that the recession had ended in September? They were wrong. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 25 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-any-green-shoots-have-failed-to-take-root-so-far-1808389.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-any-green-shoots-have-failed-to-take-root-so-far-1808389.html <p>We are not through this yet. The worst predictions for the economy in the third quarter were that it would be flat. Most people expected it to have grown a little, hence the headlines at the end of last month that the recession was over.</p> Hamish McRae Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/rescuing-the-banks-has-cost-the-uk-20-per-cent-of-gdp-1807932.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/rescuing-the-banks-has-cost-the-uk-20-per-cent-of-gdp-1807932.html Hamish McRae Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:02:31 +0100