http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/?service=Rss http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-china-races-for-growth-india-muddles-through-but-failing-to-prepare-means-preparing-to-win-825710.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-china-races-for-growth-india-muddles-through-but-failing-to-prepare-means-preparing-to-win-825710.html?r=RSS <p>Bangalore &ndash; downturn, what downturn? The world economy really does look different when viewed from the other side. This year it has been China that has attracted the headlines, but the boom and the strains it has created are just as evident in the other Asian giant, India, as a brief visit to the capital of its hi-tech industries makes clear. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 11 May 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-lower-interest-rates-are-no-magic-bullet-but-given-time-they-will-work-822851.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-lower-interest-rates-are-no-magic-bullet-but-given-time-they-will-work-822851.html?r=RSS <p>Another month, another Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting &ndash; and another interest rate cut? Well, we will learn today, but if we don't get a quarter-point now, expect it to come through in June instead. The path is clearly down, with rates at 4 per cent by December now on the cards and maybe even lower.</p> Hamish McRae Thu, 08 May 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-we-feel-poorer-and-resentful-about-tax-so-the-election-should-vanish-over-the-horizon-820733.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-we-feel-poorer-and-resentful-about-tax-so-the-election-should-vanish-over-the-horizon-820733.html?r=RSS <p>Go to the wire, Mr Brown. This is not a comment on the local elections last week or indeed the business about the London Mayor. It is simply that there has been mounting evidence in the past week that 2009 will not be a bundle of fun. Accordingly, the best chance the Government has of persuading voters to give it another term is to hope that by the summer of 2010 there will be a clear economic recovery in place. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 04 May 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-convalescence-has-begun-but-it-will-be-a-slow-road-back-to-normality-818779.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-convalescence-has-begun-but-it-will-be-a-slow-road-back-to-normality-818779.html?r=RSS <p>Are we through the acute phase of the financial crisis? Probably. Does that mean things will return to normal soon? Almost certainly not.</p> Hamish McRae Thu, 01 May 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-if-germany-offers-a-window-on-global-financial-health-then-the-view-is-good-816047.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-if-germany-offers-a-window-on-global-financial-health-then-the-view-is-good-816047.html?r=RSS <p>In Britain there is a clear distinction between what is happening in the housing market and what is happening to the real economy. News on the former is still pretty grim, whereas things such as retail sales and exports seem to be holding up reasonably well. The pound, however, continues to languish. </p> Hamish McRae Sun, 27 Apr 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-a-permanently-high-oil-price-might-not-be-a-bad-thing-if-it-forces-conservation-814769.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-a-permanently-high-oil-price-might-not-be-a-bad-thing-if-it-forces-conservation-814769.html?r=RSS <p>Oil is in blow-off territory and a reaction in the price is inevitable, probably quite soon. But that does not mean that we will return to cheap oil in our lifetimes.</p> Hamish McRae Thu, 24 Apr 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/economic-view-with-mortgages-clogging-up-the-system-a-purgative-from-the-bank-is-just-what-the-doctor-ordered-812033.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/economic-view-with-mortgages-clogging-up-the-system-a-purgative-from-the-bank-is-just-what-the-doctor-ordered-812033.html?r=RSS <p><B>The woes of British banking come to a head this week with two seminal events. One will be the details of Royal Bank of Scotland's fundraising; the other the rescue operation of the mortgage market by the Bank of England and the Treasury. The former is extensively discussed in these pages, so let me just add one comment. What is fascinating is that the markets can cope with bad news but they hate a lack of frankness. So now that RBS has, so to speak, come clean, the shares can be sensibly valued and may be set to recover. Markets are more adult that many people think. </B></p> Hamish McRae Sun, 20 Apr 2008 00:00:01 +0100 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-next-year-will-be-the-real-problem-year-for-uk-plc-ndash-not-this-one-810406.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-next-year-will-be-the-real-problem-year-for-uk-plc-ndash-not-this-one-810406.html?r=RSS <p>The contrast could hardly be greater. On the one hand, there is the doom and gloom of the housing market and the prediction of 40,000 jobs in finance being lost. On the other, there is plenty of evidence that the economy right now is still growing at a decent rate. A huge amount of attention has been devoted to the former; not a lot to the latter. So let's first redress that imbalance and then try to reconcile these two opposing perceptions of what is happening.</p> Hamish McRae Thu, 17 Apr 2008 00:00:01 +0100