Jeremy Warner: Ronson won't call the turn quite yet

Outlook To London's Dorchester Hotel, where Gerald Ronson was yesterday hosting his annual City lunch. The Heron International boss is as seasoned a participant of the European property market as they come, having successfully managed his way through at least three cycles. This must be his fourth.

Jeremy Warner: Keeping American dream on the road

Outlook President Barack Obama gave a number of reasons for wanting to save the core of the American car industry yesterday after rejecting the survival plans submitted by management. Unfortunately, very few of these reasons were commercial. Rather, the President referred in dewy-eyed hyperbole to the importance of the automobile as an emblem of the American spirit that had helped to build the very fabric of the nation. The car, he concluded, was the very essence of the American dream.

Jeremy Warner: FSA finds that Barclays is telling the truth

Outlook: Right from the start of the banking crisis, Barclays has attempted to argue that it should be viewed differently from other banks, that it had managed its risks more effectively than rivals during the long boom, and that there was therefore no need for the UK Government support that the others had had to avail themselves of.

Jeremy Warner: More banks is what we chiefly need

Outlook: Dear old Alan Greenspan. Ever since the banking crisis first broke, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve has been furiously scribbling away in an attempt to defend his legacy from the growing weight of lacerating commentary which blames Greenspan himself for allowing financial markets to run amok and the boom to get out of control.

Jeremy Warner: Canary Wharf owner teeters on the brink

Outlook Those with long memories will recall that Canary Wharf, the London Docklands development which is home to some of the City's largest investment banks, went spectacularly bust in the last recession. With the economy once more contracting fast, and the financial services industry contracting even faster, is it about to go under for a second time? Perhaps oddly, given the meltdown in investment banking and London commercial property values, this actually doesn't seem terribly likely. The complex is close to fully let, there's cash on the balance sheet, there's no speculative development going on (new offices for which there are no tenants pre-signed), most existing tenants are on long leases, and even the building once occupied by the now-defunct Lehman Brothers looks safe enough. The rent was insured for four years with AIG.

Jeremy Warner: Despite Brown's best efforts, G20 can only disappoint

Outlook Hopes of winning agreement at next week's summit of the G20 for a co-ordinated fiscal stimulus have turned to dust before the meeting could even begin. France and Germany were never in favour of it in the first place, preferring instead to preach the virtues of fiscal discipline and insisting that time must be given first to seeing whether current fiscal stimuli were working before considering even more. Now even our own Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, one of the keenest proponents of global action to deal with the recession, has been forced to concede that he's already so over-borrowed he cannot spend or cut taxes any further. As if Tuesday's warning from the Governor of the Bank of England wasn't salutary enough, the markets sent their own message the following day by shunning an issue of long-dated gilts. There are limits to how much the UK Government will be allowed to borrow.

Jeremy Warner: Inflationary nemesis awaits gilts investment

Outlook After Wednesday's gilt auction flop, yesterday there came a rip-roaring success in government debt issuance, with the latest offering 2.7 times subscribed. So is the buyers' strike over before it had even properly begun? It would be unwise for the Debt Management Office to assume so. Yesterday's issue was an index-linked gilt, and if you think what the Government is doing by borrowing so much is inflationary, that's the only form of government debt you'd be interested in buying. There are two ways of defaulting on your debt. One is simply not to pay. The other is to inflate it all away. Post-war British governments have been particularly good at this latter form of default, and that's what's going to happen this time too.

Jeremy Warner: Legal & General halves dividend for investors

Outlook Who would be a non-executive director of a life insurance company right now? Banks look almost transparent by comparison, while even if the chief executive isn't pulling the wool over your eyes, figuring out whether the company is solvent or not is like trying to get your head around the theory of relativity. It all depends crucially on what assumptions you use and the myriad different ways you can value your assets.

Jeremy Warner: Goldman may not be allowed to repay Tarp

Outlook Goldman Sachs is reportedly desperate to repay the $10bn of Tarp money it was forced to take in the thick of the banking crisis last autumn and believes itself easily capable of doing so. That way it escapes the conditions on pay and oversight the money imposed. Other more solvent banks are said to be trying to do the same thing.

Jeremy Warner: Gilt auction failure highlights challenge of the public finances

Outlook Last week, I expressed the view that the recession should prove just about affordable for the UK assuming nothing further by way of fiscal stimulus. Now I'm not so sure. With the failure of yesterday's long-dated gilt auction – the first such failure in seven years – we may be seeing the beginnings of a buyers' strike that will make the fiscal deficit increasingly difficult to fund.

Jeremy Warner: The inflationary parrot is not yet deceased

Having been declared dead, it appears that the parrot still lives. I'm talking about inflation, which to the surprise of most forecasters actually rose last month as measured by the Consumer Prices Index. To believe the headlines, you would think we were already in an age of deflation, yet the latest numbers have bizarrely forced the Governor of the Bank of England again to write to the Chancellor explaining why inflation is still so much above target. Wait a while, he might have said, and I'll be writing to you to explain why we are so far below target.

Jeremy Warner: Governor tells Brown he cannot afford to spend any more

Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, has broken one of the big unwritten taboos in publicly warning the Government off any further fiscal stimulus. The deal is that just as the Government stays out of the conduct of monetary policy, the Bank of England minds its own business on fiscal matters, at least publicly. There is always the odd bit of sniping on each other's territories, made the more intense by the financial and economic crisis of the past two years, but nothing as overt as yesterday's warning has happened in ages.

Jeremy Warner: Can the Geithner bounce be maintained?

Will Tim Geithner's $1 trillion public-private partnership plan for buying up the banking industry's toxic assets mark the bottom of the bear market, as the massive Wall Street rally on Monday seemed to suggest? The not terribly helpful answer to this question is that it depends whether the US Treasury Secretary's plan works. We are not going to know this for some months, and even then it may not presage a sustained rally. What can be said is that we must now be pretty close to the bottom of the financial crisis. Much less certain is what shape the recovery might take. Is it the sharp bounce-back anticipated by some, or will we just bump along at depressed levels for years to come? Whatever the answer, the outlook for equity markets is for the time being one of more volatility.

Jeremy Warner: Daily Mail sees signs of stabilisation

Outlook: More than half of Daily Mail's profits now come from business-to-business activities, which for the time being are proving relatively resilient

Jeremy Warner: Believe it if you will as Geithner's $1trn elephant takes flight

Outlook: For some banks there remains a certain inevitability about at least a temporary period of state ownership
At the presidential palace in Buenos Aires, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was not cowed into meeting the demands of hedge funds
It has defaulted on its debts again and bondholders could take it to the brink. But investors are betting that a deal with the vultures will come. Ben Chu looks at the domestic and global implications
Lord Heseltine has been indelibly associated with the revival of Liverpool for four decades
Lord Heseltine is cautiously optimistic over the Coalition’s bid to put a regenerated Liverpool at the centre of its target to double exports to £1 trillion by 2020, says Russell Lynch
Demonstrators carry placards as they gather for an anti-fracking protest in London last week
As developers get set to bid in the UK’s biggest sale of onshore gas licences, the commercial benefits of drilling remain far from clear
GlaxoSmithKline Chinese headquarters
We’ll just have to wait and see if Sir Andrew’s apparent wit goes hand in hand with the wisdom to cure GSK’s problems, says James Moore
Burberry is opening new stores in San Francisco and Los Angeles this autumn
From discount to luxury, UK brands are vying to conquer the States. Laura Chesters asks if they can succeed in a graveyard for our retailers
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is obsessed by sales
As its new smartphone makes its debut, it is sometimes hard to keep track of what Amazon does. And that's not a good sign
When God was giving out the moral outrage, Wall Streeters were inventing credit-default swaps. It's no surprise Ackman failed to take down Herbalife, says Mark McSherry
Fallen star Bo Xilai in court, in September last year; he was given a life sentence
The rules are subtle and unspoken, finds Evan Osnos , as he learns the dark arts from a master
A brand new prescription: ‘Only using healthy mice and rats to find cures for ill humans is old-fashioned,” says George Freeman
The UK’s first-ever minister for life sciences tells Margareta Pagano about his new role at the departments of business and health, transforming how the UK develops and finances medicine
Rich, young Russians won’t dump their English lives unless they have absolutely no other option, says Jim Armitage
It’s not a question of if, but when... interest rates have been kept artificially low for long enough, says Hamish McRae
There may be trouble ahead … David Levy has very rarely been wrong in his forecasts
David Levy’s family has correctly called every major financial event in the US for decades. Now he’s warning of a global recession next year. Bernard Condon investigates
A 1930 image of the Karl Albrecht Spiritousen and Lebensmittel shop, Essen. The shop was opened by Karl and Theo Albrecht’s mother; the brothers later founded Aldi
The retailer is on its knees, thanks to a German war veteran who turned the family grocers into the Aldi chain, writes Tony Paterson
It was Paul Fisher’s job to oversee and implement quantitative easing
Paul Fisher has left the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee after five years. He tells Ben Chu what Threadneedle Street got right and why the Bank behaved properly over forex
Arts and Entertainment
Tycoons' text: Warren Buffett and Bill Gates both cite John Brookes' 'Business Adventures' as their favourite book
Warren Buffett and Bill Gates are big fans of an out of print 1960s business book. Seth Stevenson explores why
Analysis: Some feel that Philip Clarke didn't get enough of a chance to prove himself
Mr Osborne, who is on a two-day trip to India with Foreign Secretary William Hague, said the two countries would see greater investment in each other’s economies and more job creation.
The young have been hurt the most by recession. They don't vote Tory and can't buy a house, so who cares?, writes David Blanchflower
One of the lines on the Metro do Porto network crosses the Dom Luis bridge
An interest rate swap arrangement has ended up costing a Portuguese state-owned transport company a fortune. So did it really understand the pages and pages of algebra in the contract, asks Jim Armitage
Is the new bank likely to be of much use? The emerging countries have done pretty well without it, says Hamish McRae
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