Jeremy Warner: How many more will have to be saved?
Monday, 29 September 2008
Such is now the scale of the global banking crisis that news that once would have been counted as sensational – the nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley – now barely passes the "so what" test.
Against the plethora of previously "inconceivable" events – the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the nationalisation of the US's two biggest mortgage organisations and of the world's largest insurer, AIG, the sanctioning by the British Government of the "rescue" takeover bid by Lloyds TSB of HBOS to create a company with 40 per cent of the UK banking market, and so on – this one seems almost small beer. B & B was the always the "also ran" of the independently quoted former building societies. What's more, it has a high exposure to buy-to-let and other forms of "riskier" mortgage lending, so ever since Northern Rock ran into problems more than a year ago it has been obvious B & B would struggle to survive.
The recent intensification of the banking crisis, with banks again refusing to lend to one another and depositors withdrawing their money from any bank that looks remotely suspect, has sealed the company's fate.
Desperate to avoid another £50bn of mortgage assets coming onto its books, the Treasury and Financial Services Authority has been searching for buyers, but such is the febrile atmosphere of mistrust in credit markets that no rival bank could be persuaded to take on responsibility for additional funding of this sort without a government guarantee. Bankers are finding it tough enough to fund their own lending books, let alone taking on responsibility for someone else's.
Nationalisation of the assets together with sale of the deposits and branch network became the only way of preventing an insolvency in which depositors would have lost large amounts of money.
With nationalisation of B & B goes the last of the converted building societies floated on the stock exchange in an orgy of de-mutualisation windfalls in the mid to late 1990s. Northern Rock too has been nationalised, Abbey National and Alliance & Leicester taken over by Santander, and assuming the deal goes through, HBOS, the former Halifax and Leeds Permanent building societies, has been parked with Lloyds TSB. Others are already part of larger banks.
The demutualisation "experiment" – designed to release capital to members and give these organisations the access to international money markets that would allow them to expand – has ended up a miserable catastrophe. Worse, by stoking the explosion in mortgage lending, the process of demutualisation must be judged one of the main causes of the housing bubble and the now painful correction.
In all cases, these once conservatively run mortgage societies seem to have been operating an unsafe business model, with investment in dodgy financial instruments and rapid growth in mortgage books funded not by ordinary retail deposits, but by the international money markets. Once this sort of funding dried up, they were in trouble.
Members still holding their demutualisation shares will have lost all or most of their "windfalls". Bradford & Bingley was particularly big in "buy-to-let" mortgages and high-risk "self-certified" mortgages, under which the mortgage holder vouched for his own credit worthiness. Access to these products will now become much more restrictive, as it is hard to imagine the Government will find supporting them a good use of taxpayers' money. Nationalisation will put the B & B mortgage book into run-off, which means B & B mortgage holders will be forced to pay more once their existing deals run out.
Details of the nationalisation are still unclear, but shareholders and rival bankers who only two months ago were press ganged by the Financial Services Authority into providing B & B with an additional £400m of equity capital stand to lose the lot.
As one banker put it last night: "Don't expect us to put up anything for other banks after this. It's all very well to make shareholders take the punishment for bad lending, while depositors are protected, but we were trying to help." The decision to nationalise £50bn of mortgage lending is not so dissimilar to what is being done in the US, with the $700bn Wall Street bailout plan. This has proved highly controversial, though at the time of writing it looked as if Congress would swallow its scruples and sanction the scheme in modified form.
The key difference is that in the US, the authorities propose to pay for the banks' bad loans in an attempt to get them off Wall Street's books and restore confidence in the banking system. Back here in Britain, the B & B mortgage book is being acquired for free. In time, therefore, the taxpayer ought to get most, if not all his money back and may even make a profit on the exercise.
In the meantime, it further undermines public finances, adding another 3 percentage points to public debt as a proportion of economic output. The Government will try to present the nationalisation as another act of "decisiveness" which demonstrates it is on top of the crisis. Yet it comes at an extreme cost, and increasingly people are asking where it will end. Are all banks to end up in public ownership?
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Comments
11 Comments
QUOTE: "The B & B mortgage book is being acquired for free" UNQUOTE.
I think it is a bargain that taxpayers would have been happy to forego. I only hope the HBOS/Lloyds goes ahead as expected. If it collapses I fear HBOS would be nationalised; and already the taxpayers cup brimeth over.
Posted by Anna H | 29.09.08, 17:49 GMT
Please - if the UK was enrolled in the Euro club we would be in exactly the same situation as we are now. Look at Ireland - low ineterst rates have really helped that economy! We are in this mess because rates have been too low for far too long. Borrowing has been stimulated and encouraged over savings. European banking regulation, most of which applied to the UK anyway, has added to leverage rather than limited it. Basel 2 did nothing to restrain the regulatory capital set aside for lending - it did the opposite. London never refused to share - Frankfurt and Paris had every opportunity to compete for the centre but it just never took off. Hell every major European bank could have taken their London branch and closed it - they didn't because the source ofexperienced labour as well as the regulatory environment could not be matched. Fine in hindsight London should have been better regulated - but that's with the benefit of backward looking glasses.
Posted by James C | 29.09.08, 12:43 GMT
If the UK had joined the euro this daily unfolding tragedy could have been avoided. With more controls, lower interest rates and
fixed rate loans the British public would be far better off and secure. But the City of London could not see further than its already thick wallet.
By refusing to share its role as a financial centre with Paris and Frankfurt and succumbing to unparalled greed based on the US system in Wall Street, City financiers with Government and Regulatory bodies watching from the sidelines, have been allowed to rip off the nation pocketing billions to the detriment of the general economy.
However what has been lost is more important than money.
It is the trust and confidence in the whole banking system. Who will want to let 25 year old traders handle savings or pensions?
Who will even trust the stock markets again as money looks for the safest investment even if it produces low returns?
Time for the UK to get into Europe before it becomes a third world economy.
Posted by peter fieldman | 29.09.08, 11:47 GMT
Yes Colin, it is difficult and probably silly, to trust finance people very much. However, it would also be silly to trust regulators and politicians much either. They have screwed up at least as much as the bankers. Human folly seems to be fairly well distributed in the population and is certainly not restricted to either the public or the private sector!
Actually, rapid growth in mortgage books are a problem - however they are funded. Inevitably a high proportion of mortgages are recent ones - i.e. at the top of the market. Moreover, in order to get the business, you have to offer more attractive, (=riskier), terms. It is the LATER entrants to the mutualisation game which have had to be nationalised!
Posted by michael Boon | 29.09.08, 11:01 GMT
'In all cases, these once conservatively run mortgage societies seem to have been operating an unsafe business model, with investment in dodgy financial instruments and rapid growth in mortgage books funded not by ordinary retail deposits, but by the international money markets. Once this sort of funding dried up, they were in trouble.'
EXACTLY, Jeremy, spot on. Boring old retail deposits were not enough to fund the crazy price boom of house prices in the UK, so far less secure sources of funding had to be sought. But if they had not been would there have been a boom? Now we know that you can't trust finance people and that serious regulation is required. Permanently. By honest regulators.
Posted by Colin | 29.09.08, 10:07 GMT
how can B&B be put into run off when >50% of motgages were interest only ??
Posted by J McGee | 29.09.08, 09:37 GMT
money borrowed into existence...comes as ponzi-money and also its opposite...anti-money. the two now are canceling each other out. after the leveraging..the deleveraging...balance will come...but not yet.
Posted by peterthepainter | 29.09.08, 08:33 GMT
Demutulisation was not just about the cheque in the post it is was based on a business model that allowed the lender access to "cheap" wholeslae funds and financial products for resale. Now that this business model is bust (and no matter how much money you throw at it it is still bust) the Govt has stepped in to pick up the pieces. What this means is that the taxpayer is now the 2nd largest lender of secured funds into a housing market that is collapsing. When unemployment rises and repayment defaults rise with it - does the Government forclose on people further adding to bankcrupcies and unemployment. If it can't where's the incentive to pay a mortgage. These debts could go from bad to toxic in a matter of weeks. Can anybody else see a political moral hazard ahead and an extremely unpleasant spiral developing?
Posted by James C | 29.09.08, 08:01 GMT
Hardly the THATCHER experiment James. The two ex building societies that have needed (?) to be nationalised both de-mutualised when Tony BLAIR was in Downing Street. The earlier ones were bought up by commecial banks - not as "rescues", (apart from HBOS), but as investments at a premium to their de-mutualisation prices. These banks wanted an entree into the mortgage market.
Posted by michael Boon | 29.09.08, 07:59 GMT
So the THATCHER EXPERIMENT has finally been exposed as the dodgy deal it always was.
Posted by james | 29.09.08, 03:00 GMT
11 Comments