Jeremy Warner's Outlook: Russian roulette pays off for BP's Hayward

Other than the soaraway oil price, not much seems to have gone right for BP in recent years. News that the company's bruising dispute with its partners in Russia has been resolved in a manner which allows BP to salvage more than anyone dared hope just a couple of months back, when it seemed as if the company might be forced out of Russia altogether, may mark a turning of the tide.

This might seem the wrong way of looking at yesterday's memo-randum of understanding, which on the face of it gives the Russians virtually everything they were asking for and leaves you wondering why, if this is such a triumph for BP, the whole package wasn't agreed a year ago when it was first proposed.

In the meantime, there has been a hugely damaging public row which has powerfully contributed to the breakdown in diplomatic relations between Britain and Russia. Was it all for nothing? The Russian oligarchs would have us believe that it is game, set and match to them, with their always legitimate demands now fully satisfied.

Robert Dudley is to be replaced with a new, Russian-speaking, chief executive who will be completely independent of BP and will recruit his own management team free from BP's instructions. There are also to be three independent directors nominated to the board, and the company will in future be allowed to pursue the international strategy as an independent oil major the oligarchs have been demanding. Urgent consideration will be given to an international listing, with both partners selling a fifth of their interest, or 20 per cent of the company in total.

Yet what Mikhail Fridman and his Russian partners were demanding in public and what they were really after in private may have been rather different things. In BP's eyes, the real purpose was to rip up the shareholders' agreement that protects assets from the sort of plunder they were subjected to during the company's first foray into Russia in the 1990s.

This agreement remains intact, providing still robust protection for BP's interests under international law. The unanimous agreement of the TNK-BP board is still required for major disposals, acquisitions, the business plan and for dividend payments.

This in itself seems to create the potential for further friction and conflict if either of the two parties can't agree with what the independent chief executive wants to do. The Russians want value extraction and international expansion, BP is keener on long-term reserve replacement and development. In any case, it seems unlikely this is the end of the matter. The TNK-BP partnership is inherently unstable.

All the same, for the time being, the dispute seems to be resolved, to the evident relief not just of BP, which stood to lose around a quarter of its proven reserves if it were forced out, but also of the Russian state, whose apparent connivance with the campaign of harassment against BP made it look as if it was trying to drive out all foreign investment in the country.

Full marks to Tony Hayward, the BP chief executive, for the way he's played the Russians at their own game. It took some guts, for his tough-it-out stance – in which he gave the Russians as good as he got by blackening their name in international markets and with Western lenders – could easily have backfired, with BP losing the assets altogether. The end result is a relatively satisfactory compromise.

As it is, the plan to float should be cause for some celebration among BP shareholders. The 10 per cent holding BP will be selling ought to be worth at least $5bn, which can either be applied to development elsewhere, or returned to investors.

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