The Independent - Jeremy Warner RSS Feed

The Independent - Jeremy Warner RSS Feed http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/?service=Rss Jeremy Warner: When interest rates reach zero, what does the Bank do then? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-when-interest-rates-reach-zero-what-does-the-bank-do-then-1052818.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-when-interest-rates-reach-zero-what-does-the-bank-do-then-1052818.html Outlook: Things must be bad, mustn't they, if interest rates have been cut all the way down to 2 per cent, the lowest since 1951 and indeed equal lowest in the Bank of England's entire 314-year-history, with markets predicting still more reductions to come? Well, plainly they are, but it is an interesting thought that though rates as low as these can hardly be described as "a return to normality", in the broad sweep of history, they are not as unusual as you might think. Jeremy Warner Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:22:02 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Cynicism of the mortgage plan http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-cynicism-of-the-mortgage-plan-1052810.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-cynicism-of-the-mortgage-plan-1052810.html Outlook: Following my generally positive note yesterday on the Government's proposed mortgage-relief scheme, a banker calls to tell me I'm talking nonsense and to point out that the largesse of the taxpayer in underwriting a two-year moratorium on mortgage repayments for the unemployed is far from free. Jeremy Warner Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:19:35 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Savers ignored in the rush to zero interest rates http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-savers-ignored-in-the-rush-to-zero-interest-rates-1052806.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-savers-ignored-in-the-rush-to-zero-interest-rates-1052806.html Outlook: Good news. Interest rates are going down – for millions of borrowers. Bad news. Interest rates are going down – for millions of savers. While falling interest rates make profligate borrowers better off, it makes those who have laboriously saved for a rainy day worse off. As a nation, we have become so seriously indebted that reducing the cost of money puts more back into the economy than it removes from those who rely on their savings for all or part of their income. Jeremy Warner Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:17:37 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Biotech faces funding crisis http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-biotech-faces-funding-crisis-1052803.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-biotech-faces-funding-crisis-1052803.html Outlook: A high-level group of entrepreneurs, business leaders and scientists, including Sir Christopher Evans and Sir Richard Sykes, is warning that the financial crisis threatens meltdown in Britain's once-thriving biotech industry unless the Government steps into the breach with alternative funding. Welcome to the club. Just about every industry in the land is holding out the begging bowl right now. Jeremy Warner Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:13:44 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Sterling was far too high. Now it may be going the other way http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-sterling-was-far-too-high-now-it-may-be-going-the-other-way-1050950.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-sterling-was-far-too-high-now-it-may-be-going-the-other-way-1050950.html Outlook: Jose Manuel Barroso, head of the European Commission, thinks Britain is “closer than ever before” to joining the euro and even claims to have had conversations with senior members of the UK Government to that effect. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, would be more than happy to welcome us in. Jeremy Warner Thu, 04 Dec 2008 03:01:52 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Sibir Energy’s lesson in caveat emptor http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-sibir-energyrsquos-lesson-in-caveat-emptor-1050947.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-sibir-energyrsquos-lesson-in-caveat-emptor-1050947.html Outlook: Ah, the perils of investing in Russia. M&G, Black Rock and other top-drawer London-based investors might have thought when they bought shares in Sibir Energy they were investing in a Siberian oil and gas play, but in fact it turns out they were buying into a Moscow property company with a portfolio of largely uncompleted development projects. Jeremy Warner Thu, 04 Dec 2008 03:00:46 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Mortgage plan may be smarter than it looks http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-mortgage-plan-may-be-smarter-than-it-looks-1050930.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-mortgage-plan-may-be-smarter-than-it-looks-1050930.html Outlook: Brown’s mortgage relief plan is smarter than it looks. On the face of it, underwriting lenders who allow those who lose their jobs to defer their mortgage payments for up to two years is an outrageous use of taxpayers’ money as well as amounting to unwarranted interference in a necessary housing market adjustment. Jeremy Warner Thu, 04 Dec 2008 02:59:42 +0000 Jeremy Warner: 'Not guilty', plead bankers on small business lending http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-not-guilty-plead--bankers-on-small-business-lending-1049047.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-not-guilty-plead--bankers-on-small-business-lending-1049047.html Outlook Forget the bankers, it may be as much suppliers and customers who are to blame for the present squeeze in small business lending. In launching its "charter for small businesses" yesterday, Lloyds TSB insisted that, far from reducing its small business lending over the past year, it had increased it by 18 per cent, with the average amount drawn rising from 50 per cent of overdraft limits to 58 per cent. These figures seem to conform with separate data from the British Bankers' Association suggesting an overall uplift of 10 per cent in lending to SMEs among the major banks. Jeremy Warner Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: The real carnage comes after Christmas http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-the-real-carnage-comes-after-christmas-1049048.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-the-real-carnage-comes-after-christmas-1049048.html Outlook Little sign yet of the wheels coming off the Tesco juggernaut. UK like-for-like sales growth of "just" 2 per cent is the slowest since the early 1990s, but there is no profits warning, as forecast by some. Given that the growth being reported is all volume, with no contribution from inflation, performance doesn't look that bad. Jeremy Warner Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: British Airways adds Qantas to list of marriage partners http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-british-airways-adds-qantas-to-list-of-marriage-partners-1049050.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-british-airways-adds-qantas-to-list-of-marriage-partners-1049050.html Outlook That two-timing Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways, has been playing the field again. Not content with his ongoing courtship of Spain's Iberia, or even his on-off affair with American Airlines on revenue, sales and cost-sharing, he's also been sweet-talking the Australian carrier Qantas, though you must please understand that it wasn't any part of Mr Walsh's doing. It was apparently Qantas that made the approach. What can a man do when such an attractive-looking Sheila throws herself at your feet? Jeremy Warner Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: New Star in meltdown as shares plunge http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-new-star-in-meltdown-as-shares-plunge-1047336.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-new-star-in-meltdown-as-shares-plunge-1047336.html Outlook: As founder of first Jupiter and later New Star Asset Management, there is no doubting John Duffield's talents as a serial entrepreneur and money maker, yet the skids have been under his once buoyant share price for more than a year now. After yesterday's calamitous attempt to suspend trading in the shares, they have become worth little more than option money. Jeremy Warner Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: O'Leary back for a second bite at Aer Lingus http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-oleary-back-for-a-second-bite-at-aer-lingus-1047337.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-oleary-back-for-a-second-bite-at-aer-lingus-1047337.html Outlook: If at first you don't succeed ... Michael O'Leary, the pugnacious boss of Ryanair, thinks conditions in the airline industry have deteriorated so much in the two years since he last took a tilt at Aer Lingus that now he's bidding at half the price he did back then, the competition authorities in Europe will be only too happy to wave him through. Jeremy Warner Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Housing market adjustment cannot so easily be halted http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-housing-market-adjustment-cannot-so-easily-be-halted-1047338.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-housing-market-adjustment-cannot-so-easily-be-halted-1047338.html Outlook: Stephen Hester, chief exec-utive of Royal Bank of Scotland, hopes people might look more kindly on banks now that RBS is planning to give six months breathing space to householders who fall behind with their mortgage payments. Jeremy Warner Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Now we own the banks, what should we do with them? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-now-we-own-the-banks-what-should-we-do-with-them-1040433.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-now-we-own-the-banks-what-should-we-do-with-them-1040433.html Outlook: It's been on a slow burn, but that doesn't make the moment any less historic. On Monday, Her Majesty's Treasury becomes the proud owner of 58 per cent of Royal Bank of Scotland, ostensibly putting the Government in charge of £1.9 trillion of assets and liabilities, equal to one and a half times Britain's entire annual output. Add in the 43.5 per cent of the combined Lloyds TSB/HBOS that the Government is likely to end up with once the recapitalisation of the two banks has gone through, and the Treasury might be deemed to control assets valued at well over double GDP. Jeremy Warner Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Private equity sees land of opportunity http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-private-equity-sees-land-of-opportunity-1040435.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-private-equity-sees-land-of-opportunity-1040435.html Outlook: Thought you had heard the last of the private equity boys? Think again. The death of leverage hasn't dispirited them at all. With the credit markets closed and even major, well-run companies with market-leading positions struggling to finance themselves, private equity senses a veritable lorry-load of opportunity. Jeremy Warner Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Atrocities highlight fragility of India's economic miracle http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-atrocities-highlight-fragility-of-indias-economic-miracle-1039060.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-atrocities-highlight-fragility-of-indias-economic-miracle-1039060.html Outlook No country is immune to terrorist attack, but this week's shocking events in Mumbai serve as a timely reminder that despite stellar rates of economic growth, all is not well on the Indian sub-continent. On top of all its other problems, India remains a tinder box of ethnic, religious, regional, caste and economic division. Jeremy Warner Fri, 28 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Car makers beg for state assistance http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-car-makers-beg-for-state-assistance-1039061.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-car-makers-beg-for-state-assistance-1039061.html Outlook The age of state intervention is back with a vengeance. Not that the Government is a particularly willing intervener, despite Labour's socialist roots. Rather, circumstance is forcing intervention on reluctant ministers. Almost unbelievably, given their natural aversion to anything to do with the state, the severity of the downturn is causing business leaders to start queueing at the Government's door, cap in hand, begging for assistance. Jeremy Warner Fri, 28 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Retailers face up to a slimline future http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-retailers-face-up-to-a-slimline-future-1039063.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-retailers-face-up-to-a-slimline-future-1039063.html Outlook First housebuilding, now retailers. After banking, these are the industries in the front line of the deepening economic and financial crisis, though there are plenty of others fast following up the rear. Perhaps oddly, no major housebuilder has yet gone bust, but in retailing they are already dropping like flies. Woolies may be the biggest and most iconic name to have bitten the dust so far, but it is only the outsized tip of the iceberg. Scores of smaller retail chains have been forced to quit the high street over the past year. Jeremy Warner Fri, 28 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Don't blame the economy for the demise of Woolies http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-dont-blame-the-economy-for-the-demise-of-woolies-1037043.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-dont-blame-the-economy-for-the-demise-of-woolies-1037043.html Outlook The slide into administration of the wonder of Woolies is a sad day for the British high street, but also an inevitable one. In their search for culprits, employees should blame not the credit crunch or the economic downturn, though these things sealed the company's fate, but decades of mismanagement which has left Woolies a debt-laden relic of a bygone age. Bizarrely, given the way the Woolworth brand elsewhere in the world has adventurously transmogrified into something else, the British Woolies totally failed to modernise and prepare itself for the advent of more aggressive high- street discounters. Jeremy Warner Thu, 27 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Government is guilty of double-talk over bank lending http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-government-is-guilty-of-doubletalk-over-bank-lending-1037047.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-government-is-guilty-of-doubletalk-over-bank-lending-1037047.html Outlook How to get the banks to start lending again? This, as the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has this week made plain, is now the number one challenge for economic policymakers as they grapple with the ever-deepening financial crisis. Nothing the Government has done so far, awesome in size and radical in nature though it might seem, has managed to do the trick. Other than beg, bully and berate the banks into lending a helping hand to struggling businesses and householders, what can, or should, the Government be doing? Jeremy Warner Thu, 27 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Confusion of the American policy response http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-confusion-of-the-american-policy-response-1035329.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-confusion-of-the-american-policy-response-1035329.html Outlook If you think British policymakers are still flailing around in the dark trying to address the banking crisis, it looks even worse on the other side of the Atlantic, where there was yet another massive attempt yesterday to kick-start markets in mortgages, car, student and credit card loans. Jeremy Warner Wed, 26 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Bankers adopt can't lend, won't lend approach http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bankers-adopt-cant-lend-wont-lend-approach-1035332.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bankers-adopt-cant-lend-wont-lend-approach-1035332.html Outlook Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, suggests that the banks may have to raise even more capital if they are to be persuaded to start lending again, and that if they still prove reluctant then the Government may have to resort to strong-arm tactics to bring them into line, possibly culminating in outright nationalisation. Jeremy Warner Wed, 26 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: BHP's Rio tilt proves costly waste of time http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bhps-rio-tilt-proves-costly-waste-of-time-1035333.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bhps-rio-tilt-proves-costly-waste-of-time-1035333.html Outlook The best that can be said about BHP Billiton's 11th- hour decision to abandon its hostile takeover bid for Rio Tinto is that at least Marius Kloppers, the BHP chief executive, has managed to avoid the folly of Royal Bank of Scotland's Sir Fred Goodwin, who despite the eruption of the worst banking crisis in living memory hubristically pursued the overpriced acquisition of ABN Amro to the bitter end. Jeremy Warner Wed, 26 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: This is more politics than economics – with a sting in the tail http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-this-is-more-politics-than-economics-ndash-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-1033697.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-this-is-more-politics-than-economics-ndash-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-1033697.html Now let's see if I've got this right – the Government proposes to address a recession whose origins lie in a credit-fuelled spending binge that left Britons on average more indebted than any other country in the world by encouraging consumers to spend even more and then financing it by borrowing so much that it doubles the national debt. Surely some mistake? Regrettably not. Welcome to the weird and wacky world of reflationary economics – or should that be reflationary politics? Jeremy Warner Tue, 25 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Job losses keep on mounting http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-job-losses-keep-on-mounting-1018082.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-job-losses-keep-on-mounting-1018082.html Outlook While political leaders chomp their canapés and quaff whatever it is the organisers deem appropriate to serve by way of drink for these straitened times, the news on the real economy gets ever grimmer. Germany was confirmed yesterday as officially in recession, while job losses continue to mount at an alarming pace. Jeremy Warner Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Barclays faces protest vote http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-barclays-faces-protest-vote-1018083.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-barclays-faces-protest-vote-1018083.html Outlook Ooo! I bet the Barclays board is really scared. Faced with a total stitch-up which will see Middle Eastern investors bag a third of the bank on preferential terms, existing shareholders are threatening to... to... jolly well abstain and duck any proper decision on the matter at all. Jeremy Warner Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Bretton Woods II this is not, but at least it is a start http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bretton-woods-ii-this-is-not-but-at-least-it-is-a-start-1018088.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bretton-woods-ii-this-is-not-but-at-least-it-is-a-start-1018088.html Outlook Anyone expecting something substantive from this weekend's meeting of the G20 in Washington is likely to be sadly disappointed. Comparisons with Bretton Woods are not so much misguided as completely ridiculous. Jeremy Warner Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: BBC's regional ambitions must be halted http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bbcs-regional-ambitions-must-be-halted-1016089.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bbcs-regional-ambitions-must-be-halted-1016089.html Outlook You don't need to read yesterday's statement from Johnston Press to know that the British regional newspaper industry is in dire straits. For the first 44 weeks of the year, Johnston reports a 15.5 per cent slump in advertising, with property, one of the three central pillars of classified advertising along with cars and jobs, down a stomach-churning 50 per cent. Into this struggle for survival enters the lumbering monster of the licence fee-funded BBC, apparently intent on stamping out the last vestiges of life in this once-thriving industry. The BBC is planning to spend £68m over the next three to four years setting up a series of regional websites specialising in local news and other localised content. Jeremy Warner Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Don't count on a rapid bounce back http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-dont-count-on-a-rapid-bounce-back-1016091.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-dont-count-on-a-rapid-bounce-back-1016091.html Outlook The Bank of England is forecasting a short, sharp recession, no worse in terms of its depth than that of the early 1990s and with growth returning to above trend in early 2011. The Chancellor seems to agree (see interview, page 8). Jeremy Warner Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Colao makes cash his main priority at Vodafone http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-colao-makes-cash-his-main-priority-at-vodafone-1012714.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-colao-makes-cash-his-main-priority-at-vodafone-1012714.html Outlook Despite its relative youth, mobile telephony has seen downturns before, but none in which the opportunity for growing market penetration hasn't been able to compensate. In this respect, the present contraction is a new experience for the mobile phone operators; it is the first time they have had to cope with tough times in a saturated market. With interim results yesterday, the new man in the hot seat at Vodafone, Vittorio Colao, was able to explain how he intends to cope. The stock market seemed to like what it heard, with the shares ending up more than 6 per cent on the day. Not that this makes up for the attrition of the last year, during which – oddly, given the company's defensive qualities – the share price has nearly halved. Jeremy Warner Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Back to the future with auto industry rescues http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-back-to-the-future-with-auto-industry-rescues-1012715.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-back-to-the-future-with-auto-industry-rescues-1012715.html Outlook In the TV series Life on Mars, the main character wakes up to find himself back in the 1970s. It only needs the Americans to rescue their automotive industry with government money, which is expected any day now, for this back-to-the-future world to have become a reality. For those of us brought up to believe state subsidy of industry anathema, it's a deeply dispiriting spectacle. Jeremy Warner Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Sterling crisis threatens Brown's reflationary plans http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-sterling-crisis-threatens-browns-reflationary-plans-1012719.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-sterling-crisis-threatens-browns-reflationary-plans-1012719.html Outlook As Gordon Brown plans his reflationary strategy, an old bogey has returned to haunt the Government's ambitions – the possibility of a sterling crisis. With the pound falling to a new 12-year low against a trade-weighted basket of currencies and an all-time low against the euro, it might be argued that it has already arrived. Jeremy Warner Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: It's tough reflating the economy when there's no money http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-its-tough-reflating-the-economy-when-theres-no-money-1009834.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-its-tough-reflating-the-economy-when-theres-no-money-1009834.html "We must be fast and heavy handed", China said over the weekend in announcing a $586bn stimulus to boost flagging economic activity. With its vast current account surplus and mountainous capital reserves, China has more than enough capacity to be both fast and heavy handed in its app-roach to the downturn. All it has to do is switch investment of the current account surplus from overseas to the domestic economy and the job is done. Jeremy Warner Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: An independent HBOS? Hope springs eternal http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-an-independent-hbos-hope-springs-eternal-1009835.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-an-independent-hbos-hope-springs-eternal-1009835.html Is HBOS still viable as a standalone bank? That's the nub of the question raised by the two Scottish banking chieftains – Sir George Mathewson and Sir Peter Burt – who want to ditch the proposed merger with Lloyds TSB and recreate the glory days of Edinburgh-based banking with a newly invigorated and independent HBOS. Jeremy Warner Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: British Airways reports big rise in yields http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-british-airways-reports-big-rise-in-yields-1001507.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-british-airways-reports-big-rise-in-yields-1001507.html Outlook: A profit of any kind counts as good news in the airline industry these days, so guidance from British Airways yesterday that it is set to make a small operating profit for this financial year caused its shares to soar. All things are relative, however. Since their peak last year, the shares are down by 75 per cent. Against the scale of the fall so far, yesterday's bounce barely registers. Jeremy Warner Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: A recessionary sweet tooth is just the ticket http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-a-recessionary-sweet-tooth-is-just-the-ticket-1001508.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-a-recessionary-sweet-tooth-is-just-the-ticket-1001508.html Outlook: General Motors seems to be going bust, Corus is slashing steel production, Royal Worcester has been forced into administration – that was only some of the negative news about the economy yesterday. All over the shop, the signs multiply of a deep recession in the making. Jeremy Warner Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Shamed banks bow to political pressure – but for how long? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-shamed-banks-bow-to-political-pressure-ndash-but-for-how-long-1001512.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-shamed-banks-bow-to-political-pressure-ndash-but-for-how-long-1001512.html Outlook: Oh brave new world, that hath such bankers in it. In the immediate aftermath of this week's dramatic cut in interest rates, lenders appeared as reluctant as ever to hand on the full benefit of the reduction to their mortgage and business customers. Only two banks, Lloyds TSB and Abbey, announced immediate cuts of the full 1.5 percentage points. The others showed every sign of digging their heels in. Credit remains tight and expensive, they insisted, and anyway, they needed to rebuild profits and balance sheets after the shocks of the past 18 months. Jeremy Warner Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Bank acts boldly to get back ahead of the curve on rates http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bank-acts-boldly-to-get-back-ahead-of-the-curve-on-rates-998268.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bank-acts-boldly-to-get-back-ahead-of-the-curve-on-rates-998268.html Outlook Rarely has the John Maynard Keynes' book of quotations been as much in demand. One of his most famous was: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seems to have taken it to heart in cutting interest rates by a dramatic 1.5 percentage points. Having been slow to recognise the seriousness of the economic downturn, the Bank has acted decisively and with bravado to get back ahead of the curve. Even so, it may be a case of too little, too late. Jeremy Warner Fri, 07 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Bank acts boldly to get back ahead of the curve on rates http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bank-acts-boldly-to-get-back-ahead-of-the-curve-on-rates-998410.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-bank-acts-boldly-to-get-back-ahead-of-the-curve-on-rates-998410.html Outlook Rarely has the John Maynard Keynes' book of quotations been as much in demand. One of his most famous was: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seems to have taken it to heart in cutting interest rates by a dramatic 1.5 percentage points. Having been slow to recognise the seriousness of the economic downturn, the Bank has acted decisively and with bravado to get back ahead of the curve. Even so, it may be a case of too little, too late. Jeremy Warner Fri, 07 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Rate cuts are UK's only weapon in fighting recession http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-rate-cuts-are-uks-only-weapon-in-fighting-recession-995208.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-rate-cuts-are-uks-only-weapon-in-fighting-recession-995208.html Outlook Never mind the US, back home the economy seems to be sliding into an ever deeper recession. The services sector shrank by a record amount in October, while manufacturing continued to suffer. It is more than possible that the present contraction will be worse than that of the early 1990s, when the peak-to-trough fall in output was "only" 2.5 per cent. Most business leaders talk of a particularly sharp fall in activity over the last month, with no sign of where salvation might lie. Jeremy Warner Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Those Barclays arrangement fees http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-those-barclays-arrangement-fees-995209.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-those-barclays-arrangement-fees-995209.html Outlook In the past, I've made myself unpopular with some readers, as well as with the OECD, by seeming to apologise for British Aerospace in connection with the Al-Yamamah bribes for arms contract. But can someone please explain to me the difference between what BAE did and the multimillion-pound arrangement fees the Gulf states are paying themselves and their advisers for investing in Barclays? OK, so one is deemed illegal while the other is apparently accepted practice in the capital markets. Yet in concept the two seem almost identical. Both involve "commissions" to those who arranged the deal. BAE was selling arms, Barclays is selling capital, but almost any transaction when involving the Middle East seemed to require a little something to oil the cogs. Jeremy Warner Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000 Jeremy Warner: Dollar weakness could undermine Obama's plans http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-dollar-weakness-could-undermine-obamas-plans-995212.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/jeremy-warner/jeremy-warner-dollar-weakness-could-undermine-obamas-plans-995212.html Outlook The outlook for the USdollar might seem a subject too trite for analysis on a day of such historic significance, yet it may shape the Obama presidency rather more than he would like. Despite the hope and expectation which is being vested in the new president, not just in the US but internationally too, a strong dollar is by no means guaranteed, and without the backing of the dollar, Barack Obama may struggle to meet his ambitious, fiscally liberal spending plans. Jeremy Warner Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:01 +0000