Business Comment

Rain (AM and PM) 14° London Hi 14°C / Lo 6°C

Jeremy Warner's Outlook: Bankers are desperate for more funding. So why are they paying bumper dividends?

Institutions must act on stock lending; Rentokil pays high price for dream team

Friday, 21 March 2008

The media circus that surrounded the Governor of the Bank of England's meeting with senior bankers yesterday to discuss the turmoil in financial markets was in danger of feeding the very crisis the bankers are hoping to avoid, so at the close of the fireside chat, everyone agreed to say as little about it as possible.

Yet you didn't need to be a fly on the wall to know what would have been said. The bankers would have demanded that the Bank of England act like the Federal Reserve in the US, and through its statements and actions show that it is willing to do everything within its powers to solve the funding problems in credit markets.

More specifically, they would have urged the Governor to go beyond the £10.9bn of money market operations announced yesterday to provide almost unlimited term money secured against much wider collateral than has been allowed in the past.

Despite the high moral tone he adopted at the outset of the crisis, the Governor may no longer need much persuading. Already he's loosened the rules on collateral and provided quite a bit of term money. He appears more than willing to do more.

Yet he will also have given the bankers a severe ticking off. On two occasions now, he's publicly urged bankers to take steps to strengthen their balance sheets, so that capital ratios can be maintained and lending supported amid deteriorating credit quality. Far from listening, bankers seem deliberately to have contradicted him, both by saying they don't need any more capital and paying inflation-busting increases in dividends to demonstrate the point.

Like the markets, the Governor believes they are in a state of denial. There is also something faintly disturbing about the sight of bankers desperately crying out for funding from the lender of last resort on the one hand while simultaneously paying out record dividends and bonuses on the other. Obviously there is a difference between the two things. Liquidity is not the same thing as capital. It is quite possible for banks to have an absence of one while simultaneously having a surplus of the other. For bankers, there is no greater sin than cutting the dividend. Indeed, if you are going to raise more capital, it may help sugar the pill if shareholders at least know that the dividend is underwritten.

Even so, to most people, the difference between an absence of funding and capital looks technical and largely irrelevant. Logically, a bank which is desperately short of funding shouldn't be signing a £1bn dividend cheque.

Though bankers lecture their customers on the disciplines of the market, they don't expect to suffer its consequences themselves. Whenever there is a sickness in the system, even when it is one of their own making, they expect the authorities to come riding to the rescue.

Because of the central importance of banks to the economy – they are the plumbing that keeps the whole thing going – the authorities have little option but to oblige. Banks will require a lot more medicine before the fever goes away. Until the US housing market convincingly bottoms out, so that investors can be sure of the level of defaults and consequent losses, the credit markets will continue to look sick and bankers will also continue to hoard their cash against rising impairment charges.

The securitisation markets won't come back until debt has been convincingly repriced and the wrecks have been fully exposed by the receding tide. Though Bear Stearns may have marked the nadir of the crisis, the banking system is likely to remain on the critical list for months to come.

Institutions must act on stock lending

Time was when it was illegal to short banking shares, the idea being that confidence is so vital to the health of the banking system that anything that might undermine it should be strongly discouraged.

With today's global markets, I'm not sure it would ever be possible to reintroduce such a rule. Someone, somewhere would find a way of doing it. Yet the trouncing of Bear Stearns and the failed attempt to do the same thing to HBOS may call for extreme measures. Certainly, all institutions that provide the stock lending that makes shorting possible need urgently to re-examine their procedures and properly to model whether there is any advantage to their long-term investors in providing this service. It is hard to see how there can be.

The practice also self evidently opens the flood gates to scaremongering abuse when market conditions are as nervous as they are at the moment. There is a simple solution to the difficulty regulators have in pursuing the abuse: close down the mechanisms through which the miscreants practise it.

Every time there is a serious banking crisis, a mass of new regulation is introduced, which is then slowly dismantled as the lobbyists gets to work and the reasons for the rules are lost in the mists of time. Then there is another banking crisis and it all has to be reinvented.

Rightly or wrongly, there is going to be a pile of the stuff reimposed after the latest implosion. Lawmakers need to be careful they don't throw the baby out with the bath water, yet confidence in the banking system, now wide open to the abuse of scaremongers, plainly has to be bolstered somehow or other.

Rentokil pays high price for dream team

Brian McGowan spent so long agonising over who to appoint to run Rentokil Initial after engineering the dismissal of its founder, Sir Clive Thompson, that it was widely said he must have been trying to keep the job for himself. Yet though he no doubt enjoyed the trappings of the chairmanship, the reality was that he couldn't find anyone stupid enough to drink from such a self evidently poisoned chalice.

In the end he opted for Doug Flynn, a great guy but a wholly inappropriate choice. Mr Flynn's background was in newspapers and advertising, not rat catching and logistics. All in all, it was a quite exceptional result. Mr Twenty Per Cent was replaced with Mr Minus Twenty Per Cent. Worse, in fact, as the McGowan/Flynn partnership has since succeeded in halving the share price in a period when the rest of the stock market has risen 50 per cent.

So two and a half cheers for Peter Long, the senior independent director at Rentokil, who has moved with impressive speed since the last, calamitous profits warning in clearing out the old guard and bringing in the new. He was lucky, of course, in that the dream team of John McAdam and two of the other executives credited with turning around ICI had suddenly become available thanks to the Akzo Nobel takeover. He's also had to pay extravagantly to bag his talent. All three of them get free shares potentially worth £31.5m apiece on top of salary, assuming various share price targets are met. Unusually, these rewards are linked only to the share price, not wider measures of shareholder return and performance.

The remuneration package requires a little more effort, and the rewards are not quite so humungus, as those proposed by Sir Gerry Robinson during his management buy-in attempt a few years back, but the parallels are more striking than the differences. Back then, shareholders sent Sir Gerry packing, so outrageous did his demands seem. This time around investors are desperate, and although eyebrows will be raised, they will agree almost anything that promises the hope of salvation.

Sometimes it seemed Mr Flynn was more wedded to his passion for sailing, as well as returning to his antipodean roots down under, than running Rentokil, yet despite these distractions and the successive profit warnings that eventually sunk him, some of the right building blocks for recovery may already be in place.

Little more than a resumption of the bull market in shares may be required for Mr Mc-Adam and his colleagues to hit the jackpot. Timing is all in business, and Mr McAdam seems to have his spot on.

Interesting? Click here to explore further

Post a comment

Limit: 1000 characters

View all comments that have been posted about this article

Comment
Your details

* Required field

Offensive or abusive comments will be removed and your IP address logged and may be used to prevent further submissions. In submitting a comment to the site, you agree to be bound by Independent.co.uk's Terms of Use

It is time for a clean up. "Shorting" property of any sort should never have been legal. The idea that it is OK to sell property that you do not own is morally outrageous.

Posted by tony peterson | 22.03.08, 16:33 GMT

Post a complaint

Please note Name and E-mail are required.

Contact details

What about harnessing the people power of internet banking, in unspoken alliance with Mervyn and the BoE, to force banks and mortgage lenders to come clean on the real strength of their balance sheets?

Supposing one of the many money advice websites was to replace its ‘best deal’ tables with an alternative table on ‘highest risk of going bust’. (This will probably happen soon anyway, by popular demand -- we are all taking a growing interest in which banks and savings bodies are safer than others).

Known data on balance sheets could be backed up with a online poll on ‘who may be next, to follow Northern Rock and Bear Stearns?’ Loan customers, en masse, have a shrewd idea of where the defaults will surface.

Then we might see some orchestrated stress testing. The website would tell us which institution headed the table as ‘risk of the week’.

The many careful savers who now have savings spread across several internet accounts would all shift their money out of this week’s bank in the spotlight, and move it elsewhere. Such transfers are the work of a moment for those who bank online (as Northern Rock became grimly aware).

An unfair bank run? Or a concerted ‘prudence warning’, generated by long suffering customers of a sector that has displayed much greed and irresponsibility in recent years.

If the institution concerned is not as robust as it claims, and suffers liquidity problems, Mervyn will be waiting at the new BoE discount window to relieve it of some of its dubious collateral in return for Treasury cash.

Not a bail-out, since the collateral would be valued ‘aggressively’ and in the public interest – with the institution in question not in a position to argue as its capital shrank by the day. People power, through the medium of online self-banking and share-dealing, would force each bank to take their turn in the queue.

Bank profits and bonus payments would take a hit. Sub-prime debt would be flushed out of the system sooner rather than later, and the BoE (and the rest of us) would get a better picture of the depth of a solvency (as opposed to liquidity) crisis. Someone would need to find a way to stop short sellers in the stock market from making a fortune, as each bank takes its restorative cold bath. But otherwise worth a go?

Posted by Henry | 22.03.08, 10:06 GMT

Post a complaint

Please note Name and E-mail are required.

Contact details

Apart from everything else, these two will go down in history as the ones who ruined Rentokil and the careers and livelihood of many loyal and talented people. Flynn should get his golden handshake, after all a deal is a deal, but it should come out of McGowan’s pocket. He’s the one who made the ridiculous contract. Why should the shareholders pay? They have suffered enough!

Posted by smith | 22.03.08, 08:33 GMT

Post a complaint

Please note Name and E-mail are required.

Contact details

I've always been a bit unclear as to how short sellers get away with it? I can see that it makes good business for them, and the brokers they pay to lend them the shares - but what about the poor schmuck that owns the shares? I'm guessing there are going to be a few HBOS shareholders a bit unhappy to realise that their shares have been loaned out (as far as I can make out without their knowledge or consent) for hedge funds to short. I've read the argument that short sellers can keep the market honest by identifying overpriced shares, but this kind of predatory action seems to undermine the whole operation of markets. Or am I missing something?

Posted by Charles Wheeler | 21.03.08, 15:24 GMT

Post a complaint

Please note Name and E-mail are required.

Contact details