Investment: Should you invest in... pharmaceutical companies?

the pharmaceuticals sector has been a source of strong growth, despite the potentially high-risk nature of a business heavily dependent on research and development of new products, and patent protection. The more mature business of chemicals manufacture has also been largely out of favour.

Glenn Meyer of Pavilion Asset Management says: "The two sectors seem to act in opposition. Pharmaceuticals are generally growth stocks and chemical companies tend to be highly cyclical. Pharmaceuticals have a much clearer and longer flow of earnings, and the chemical sector moves in line with the world economy and is much more volatile."

Jeremy Batstone of NatWest Stockbrokers has a different focus."Pharmaceuticals have been very volatile and the sector has tended to lag the market," he says. "People are looking more for value as the economy has improved, away from more defensive growth areas like pharmaceuticals."

Mark Mathias, head of investment funds at Rea Brothers Investment Management, agrees the sector's long-term growth potential is undisputed. Mathias, whose firm runs two specialist pharmaceutical funds, says: "There is the trend to ageing populations in the OECD countries, with the highest proportion of lifetime healthcare expenditure coming in the last two years of life, underpinned by the significant increase in healthcare research expenditure. At the same time, the OECD governments are trying to rein in the cost of government-subsidised healthcare and the way you do that is to spend more on drugs to keep people out of hospital."

North America's political debate about state-funded medical programmes has added to the uncertainty, says Nigel Thomas, manager of ABN Amro's UK Growth Fund. "Proposed legislation in Medicare reform will limit spending on outpatient drug costs for elderly people who account for over 30 per cent of US outpatient drug spending and this will affect pharmaceutical companies - the FT suggests it would impact earnings by between 10 and 15 per cent."

Thomas says the plans will probably not come to fruition but the debate is affecting share prices. "It is a political hot potato but given the Republican position in Congress, we are not so sure it will be enacted."

Size is also going to be a key element in future corporate earnings. "When it comes down to it, healthcare is not an optional expenditure and the amounts spent on it are going to rise," adds Mathias.

"There is very good long-term earnings visibility in the pharmaceutical sector andmergers of large companies. You can sell the same drugs into different markets, and IT helps keep control in multinational companies."

Batstone says: "There is still a lot of scope for mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical sector. Critical mass is the key force driving consolidation because of the large spend on R&D. The quicker you can develop a new drug from scratch, the longer you will have the benefit of its patent protection, but without the scale you haven't got the size or funds for research."

Every major player is in the frame. "SmithKline Beecham is mentioned on a fairly regular basis but Glaxo Wellcome is also rumoured to be looking at an overseas tie-up," he adds.

Glenn Meyer says: "The UK chemical sector has underperformed the market, but overseas firms seem to value UK chemical companies more highly than the market does."

Stock selection is the key. "Concentrate on chemical sector stocks which focus on profitable areas, such as BTP, which constantly refreshes its portfolio," he says. "Avoid larger companies, which tend to underperform the market."

There is scope for the active share trader. Meyer adds: "ICI has been a relatively poor performer for a long time, but with short periods of outperformance, so timing is everything. Look at manufacturers of industrial chemicals. The problem here is that you very quickly reach overcapacity and have a fairly low return on capital."

By contrast, the bulk of investor interest in the drugs sector is focused on the largest stocks. Nigel Thomas says: "There aren't that many pure pharmaceutical companies below pounds 1bn in size. Shire Pharmaceuticals and Medeva, with Galen in Ireland, are the only mid-sized ones and once below a certain size they are largely bio-techs, of which we like Celltech and Phytopharm."

Jeremy Batstone adds: "There are a lot of stocks in the sector relatively cheap, with the possible exception of AstraZeneca. Glaxo Wellcome still looks good value at around pounds 19. We would suggest it could get up to maybe pounds 21.50 or pounds 22 in the short to medium term."

Another key player in the sector is SmithKline Beecham, where investors were holding off until the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) ruled on Avandia, its new diabetes treatment, last week. Batstone adds: "The ruling was positive and SmithKline could be looking at sales of $1.5bn to $2bn."

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
Voices
voices
News
general electionThis quiz matches undecided voters with the best party for them
Arts and Entertainment
Keira Knightley and Matthew Macfadyen starred in the big screen adaptation of Austen's novel in 2005
tvStar says studios are forcing actors to get buff for period roles
News
Prince William and his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge show their newly-born daughter, their second child, to the media outside the Lindo Wing at St Mary's Hospital in central London, on 2 May 2015.
news
ebooks
ebooksA celebration of British elections
  • Get to the point
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Ashdown Group: Trainee Consultant - Surrey/ South West London

£22000 per annum + pension,bonus,career progression: Ashdown Group: An establi...

Ashdown Group: Trainee Consultant - Surrey / South West London

£22000 per annum + pension,bonus,career progression: Ashdown Group: An establi...

Recruitment Genius: Claims Administrator

£16000 - £18500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an excellent opportunit...

Recruitment Genius: Senior SEO Executive

£24000 - £28000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Senior SEO Executive is requi...

Day In a Page

Fishing for votes with Nigel Farage: The Ukip leader shows how he can work an audience as he casts his line to the disaffected of Grimsby

Fishing is on Nigel Farage's mind

Ukip leader casts a line to the disaffected
Who is bombing whom in the Middle East? It's amazing they don't all hit each other

Who is bombing whom in the Middle East?

Robert Fisk untangles the countries and factions
China's influence on fashion: At the top of the game both creatively and commercially

China's influence on fashion

At the top of the game both creatively and commercially
Lord O’Donnell: Former cabinet secretary on the election and life away from the levers of power

The man known as GOD has a reputation for getting the job done

Lord O'Donnell's three principles of rule
Rainbow shades: It's all bright on the night

Rainbow shades

It's all bright on the night
'It was first time I had ever tasted chocolate. I kept a piece, and when Amsterdam was liberated, I gave it to the first Allied soldier I saw'

Bread from heaven

Dutch survivors thank RAF for World War II drop that saved millions
Britain will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power - Labour

How 'the Axe' helped Labour

UK will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power
Rare and exclusive video shows the horrific price paid by activists for challenging the rule of jihadist extremists in Syria

The price to be paid for challenging the rule of extremists

A revolution now 'consuming its own children'
Welcome to the world of Megagames

Welcome to the world of Megagames

300 players take part in Watch the Skies! board game in London
'Nymphomaniac' actress reveals what it was really like to star in one of the most explicit films ever

Charlotte Gainsbourg on 'Nymphomaniac'

Starring in one of the most explicit films ever
Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi: The Emirates' out-of-sight migrant workers helping to build the dream projects of its rulers

Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi

The Emirates' out-of-sight migrant workers helping to build the dream projects of its rulers
Vince Cable interview: Charging fees for employment tribunals was 'a very bad move'

Vince Cable exclusive interview

Charging fees for employment tribunals was 'a very bad move'
Iwan Rheon interview: Game of Thrones star returns to his Welsh roots to record debut album

Iwan Rheon is returning to his Welsh roots

Rheon is best known for his role as the Bastard of Bolton. It's gruelling playing a sadistic torturer, he tells Craig McLean, but it hasn't stopped him recording an album of Welsh psychedelia
Morne Hardenberg interview: Cameraman for BBC's upcoming show Shark on filming the ocean's most dangerous predator

It's time for my close-up

Meet the man who films great whites for a living
Increasing numbers of homeless people in America keep their mobile phones on the streets

Homeless people keep mobile phones

A homeless person with a smartphone is a common sight in the US. And that's creating a network where the 'hobo' community can share information - and fight stigma - like never before