Brazil vs Germany World Cup 2014: How top economists got their predictions completely wrong

Goldman Sachs, Unicredit and Danske Bank all predicted Brazil would win the World Cup. Germany disagrees.

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The Independent Online

If you were one of the many football fans rooting for Brazil to win the World Cup, only to be humiliated after their 7-1 defeat against Germany, don't feel bad. Just blame the economists and their spectacularly wrong predictions.

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, Italy's Unicredit and Danske Bank all predicted the Seleção would a) make it to the final b) win the World Cup. These are supposed to be smart people, surely they couldn't get it that wrong, right? Well, they did.

Goldman initially predicted the hosts would beat Argentina in a 3-1 final. The bank also predicted Spain and Germany would make it to the semi-finals. Unfortunately, the Spanish national team didn't make it pass the group stage, losing to Chile and the Netherlands.

As for Germany? They've secured their spot in the final that is set to take place on 13 July at the Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro after hammering La Canarinha last night.

Video: Brazilians react to humiliating loss

Similarly, Italy's Unicredit got their World Cup predictions completely wrong. The bank expected total South American domination with Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay all reaching the semi-finals, adding: "The only European team in the semi-finals will be Germany".

Again, they got it wrong.

Colombia defeated Uruguay in a 2-0 victory, reaching the quarter-finals for the time in history, after Uruguay’s star player Luis Suarez was sent home for biting Italy's Giorgio Chiellini in the shoulder. The Liverpool striker was also handed a record nine-game ban and a four month ban from all football related activity.


In a Bloomberg survey, 98 out of 171 economists from 139 companies predicted Brazil would beat Argentina and Germany. Defending champion Spain came fourth.

Last, but not least, Danske Bank also picked Brazil as their top choice, with a 45.1 per cent chance to win the World Cup, citing their "home advantage, a large population and a strong football tradition".

Their top four also included Argentina (8.1 per cent), Germany (7.6 per cent) and France (6.7 per cent).

Danske, however, did get something right- they expected Spain to be "the big disappointment of the tournament", losing to Italy in a hypothetical quarter final.