Business warns of 'double-dip' slowdown

There is a rising danger that Britain is about to enter a "double dip" or "W-shaped" recession, according to the latest survey of business confidence by the British Chambers of Commerce.

The BCC's second-quarter survey confirms the current consensus on the economy – that "the worst of the recession is over" – but says that employers' hiring intentions are running at a 20-year low and warns of "serious downward pressures". They add: "There is a risk that without a continued focus on limiting the impact of recession, the economy could drop off suddenly, adding weight to the argument that we are heading towards a W-shaped recession."

The BCC survey covers some 5,600 companies: almost all the critical measures – on output, exports and employment – remain in negative territory and many are weak by historical standards.

Many economists believe that the relative weakness of recent data – where the rate of improvement is now starting to slow – will push the Bank of England to use the final £25bn of its quantitative easing programme when the Monetary Policy Committee makes its announcement this Thursday.

The latest news from the Construction Products Association, for example, adds to evidence that the building trade has even now not hit rock bottom. The CPA warns that the construction sector faces a "lost decade" after a record slump in output during 2009 and another three years of pain.

David Frost, director general of the BCC, commented: "The Government needs to think long and hard about its policies on taxation and red tape, which threaten to stifle growth and employment. The planned increase in national insurance contributions is nothing more than a tax on jobs, and it should be abandoned immediately."

The BCC survey follows others, from the CBI, the Bank of England and elsewhere, that shows manufacturing recording a strong bounce-back, although in absolute terms, the manufacturing sector remains in a worse condition overall than services. Economy-wide employment intentions remain depressed. The chambers of commerce predict that unemployment will reach 3.2 million – some 10 per cent of the workforce – by mid-2010. Yorkshire and the East Midlands showed the most pessimistic returns.

John Wraith, the director and head of sterling rates, RBC Capital Markets, indicated a growing view in the City that: "We expect the MPC to announce that the remaining £25bn of reserve creation for asset purchases will be accessed... It will stretch the programme to at least late August, giving the MPC leeway to study the detailed August Inflation Report forecasts before making any major decisions on the future of quantitative easing."

PROMOTED VIDEO
Arts and Entertainment
Babysitter Katie and Paul have terse words in the park
tvReview: The strength of the writing keeps viewers glued to their seats even when they are confronted with the hard-hitting scenes
News
i100
Arts and Entertainment
American singer, acclaimed actor of stage and screen, political activist and civil rights campaigner Paul Robeson (1898 - 1976), rehearses in relaxed mood at the piano.
filmSinger, actor, activist, athlete: Paul Robeson was a cultural giant. But prejudice and intolerance drove him to a miserable death. Now his story is to be told in film...
Sport
England’s opening goalscorer Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain battles with Scotland’s Charlie Mulgrew
FootballEngland must learn to keep possession and dictate games before they are exposed by the likes of Germany and Brazil
Life and Style
Make-up artists prepare contestants for last year’s Miss World, held in Budapest
fashion
Sport
Wigan Athletic’s back-of-the shirt sponsor Premier Range has pulled out due to Malky Mackay’s arrival
Football
News
ebooksNow available in paperback
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant - Soho

£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE £35,000: SThree: We consistently strive to be ...

Ampersand Consulting LLP: Markit EDM (CADIS) Developer

£50000 - £90000 per annum + benefits: Ampersand Consulting LLP: Markit EDM (CA...

Carlton Senior Appointments: Director, Private Bank - San Francisco, CA

$175 - $200 per annum, Benefits: full benefits: Carlton Senior Appointments: P...

Carlton Senior Appointments: San Diego, CA – Tier 1 House - Senior MD FA

Not specified: Carlton Senior Appointments: Senior MD Financial Advisor - San ...

Day In a Page

US immigration: President Obama ready to press ahead with long-promised plan to overhaul 'broken system' - but will it get past a Republican-controlled Congress?

Immigration: Obama's final frontier

The President is ready to press ahead with the long-promised plan to overhaul America's 'broken system' - but will it get past a Republican-controlled Congress?
Bill Cosby rape allegations explained: Why are these allegations coming out now? Why didn’t these women come forward earlier? And why has nobody taken legal action?

Bill Cosby rape allegations explained

Why are these allegations coming out now? Why has nobody taken legal action? And what happens next for the man once thought of as 'America's Dad'
Four years of excruciating seizures caused by the 1cm tapeworm found burrowing through a man's brain

You know that headache you’ve got?

Four years of excruciating seizures caused by the 1cm tapeworm found burrowing through a man's brain
Travelling to work by scooter is faster than walking and less sweaty than cycling, so why aren’t we all doing it?

Scoot commute

Travelling to work by scooter is faster than walking and less sweaty than cycling, so why aren’t we all doing it?
Paul Robeson: The story of how an American icon was driven to death to be told in film

The Paul Robeson story

How an American icon was driven to death to be told in film
10 best satellite navigation systems

Never get lost again: 10 best satellite navigation systems

Keep your vehicle going in the right direction with a clever device
Paul Scholes column: England must learn to keep possession and dictate games before they are exposed by the likes of Germany and Brazil

Paul Scholes column

England must learn to keep possession and dictate games before they are exposed by the likes of Germany and Brazil
Michael Dawson: I’ll thank Spurs after we win says defender as he prepares to return with Hull

Michael Dawson: I’ll thank Spurs after we win

Hull defender faces his struggling former club on Sunday ready to show what they are missing. But he says he will always be grateful to Tottenham
Frank Warren column: Dr Wu has big plans for the professionals yet he should stick to the amateur game

Frank Warren column

Dr Wu has big plans for the professionals yet he should stick to the amateur game
Synagogue attack: Fear unites both sides of Jerusalem as minister warns restoring quiet could take 'months'

Terror unites Jerusalem after synagogue attack

Rising violence and increased police patrols have left residents of all faiths looking over their shoulders
Medecins sans Frontieres: The Ebola crisis has them in the headlines, but their work goes far beyond West Africa

'How do you carry on? You have to...'

The Ebola crisis has Medecins sans Frontieres in the headlines, but their work goes far beyond West Africa
Isis extends its deadly reach with suicide bombing in Kurdish capital

Isis extends its deadly reach with suicide bombing in Kurdish capital

Residents in what was Iraq’s safest city fear an increase in jihadist attacks, reports Patrick Cockburn
Underwater photography competition winners 2014 - in pictures

'Mysterious and inviting' shot of diver wins photography competition

Stunning image of cenote in Mexico takes top prize
Sir John Major: Negative West End portrayals of politicians put people off voting

Sir John Major hits out at theatres

Negative West End portrayals of politicians put people off voting
Kicking Barbie's butt: How the growth of 3D printing enabled me to make an army of custom-made figurines

Kicking Barbie's butt

How the growth of 3D printing enabled toy-designer to make an army of custom-made figurines