OECD survey suggests boost for economy
Monday 12 March 2012
Hopes that the UK might dodge another recession were boosted
today as an influential forecaster revealed a positive shift in economic
activity at the start of the year.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said its composite leading indicators, a survey designed to anticipate turning points in the economic cycle, had signified stronger but tentative signals of improvement.
The Paris-based organisation, which works to improve social and economic wellbeing across the world, said it had seen a positive change in momentum in all major countries with the global position driven by growth in the US and Japan.
The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the final three months of 2011 but industrial surveys have suggested a slight pick up in activity in January and this OECD survey will add to cautious optimism around the country's growth prospects for 2012.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The OECD leading indicator had previously declined for 10 successive months, so the improving trend seen at the end of 2011 and start of 2012 boosts hopes that the UK can return to growth in the first quarter and avoid recession."
Mr Archer said the survey gave support to his forecast for 0.3% growth in the first three months of 2012. The official figures will be published next month.
Retail sales and purchasing managers surveys for manufacturing, services and construction have all been robust so far this year, while the Bank of England acknowledged the slight pick-up at the start of the year in its last quarterly report.
But Mr Archer said the economy still faces "serious domestic and international headwinds" including squeezed consumer purchasing power, rising unemployment and the threat posed by the problems in the eurozone.
However, the OECD did record a slowdown in China which may raise fears of a global slowdown as the resource-hungry country's rampant growth comes off the boil.
- 1 Boston Marathon runner's search for mystery man she kissed ends with letter from his wife
- 3 Frankie Boyle on Scottish independence: 'In the Interests of Unity, F**k Off'
- 4 How to gain confidence and maximise your sexual potential
- 5 Chinese theme park sets up 'death simulator' where volunteers can experience being cremated
Saudi Arabia's King Salman sacks senior aide for 'slapping' a journalist behind him live on TV
Boston Marathon runner's search for mystery man she kissed ends with letter from his wife
Frankie Boyle on Scottish independence: 'In the Interests of Unity, F**k Off'
Italian police 'reveal' what Jesus looked like as a young boy
Florida couple forced to register as sex offenders for having sex on public beach
In defence of liberal democracy
General Election 2015: Post-election 'shambles' looms as 70 per cent of voters say SNP 'should not be able to veto UK government policies'
The Rothschild Libel: Why has it taken 200 years for an anti-Semitic slur that emerged from the Battle of Waterloo to be dismissed?
General Election 2015: UK will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power, Labour warns
General election live: SNP suspends two members for disrupting Labour rally
Schools forced to act as 'miniature welfare states' with teachers buying underwear and even haircuts for poor pupils
iJobs Money & Business
£60000 - £70000 per annum + benefits : Ashdown Group: A highly successful, glo...
£25000 - £30000 per annum + benefits: Ashdown Group: A global leader operating...
£40-50k + Benefits.: Guru Careers: A Project Manager / Business Analyst is nee...
£20000 - £25000 per annum + Uncapped commission: SThree: Can you speak German,...