Is the British pound the Mexican peso?
Amid rising fears that the UK will take a big economic hit from its move to leave the European Union, the correlation between the pound and an index of emerging-market currencies has jumped to levels last seen in the run-up to the Brexit vote.
“Investors are increasingly casting UK assets in an emerging-market light, amid a fundamental re-appraisal of the country's medium- to long-term economic fortunes,” Chris Scicluna, London-based strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets, said.
On Tuesday, the pound fell for a fourth day, tumbling 0.49 percent to below $1.23, bringing its year-to-date fall against the dollar to 17 per cent — the worst among 16 major peers.
“The pound is the purest expression of investors' fears about political risk in developed markets,” Nicholas Spiro, partner at London-based Lauressa Advisory, a London-based macro consultancy firm, wrote in a note to clients on Monday. “While the Mexican peso — the most liquid emerging market currency and the most reliable gauge of 'Trump risk' — has given sterling a run for its money this year, it's the pound that has become a proxy for politically-driven volatility in markets.”
While developed-country government bonds typically benefit from safe-haven buying during bouts of market nerves, the dynamic is now in reverse, with the pound and government bonds falling in tandem, and the UK 10-year note yielding 0.98 percent compared with 0.52 percent in mid-August. While global bond markets have sold off this month, amid expectations of tighter monetary policies, UK yields have outpaced rises in the US and euro-area countries.
The correlation between the pound and two-year gilt yields — which move inversely to prices — is at the lowest in a decade.
Gilt market underperformance, combined with the pound sell-off, suggests that UK markets aren't enjoying the benefits that accrue from the pound's reserve-currency status, says Jordan Rochester, FX strategist at Nomura Holdings Plc.
“Since reserve-currency countries enjoy investor confidence and there's a lack of a liquidity premium, FX markets look to buy government bonds when yields rise. But the sell-off in UK rates markets, leading to a weaker currency, is reminiscent of the dynamic in emerging-market countries,” he says.
An “upward shift in inflation expectations,” driven by the falling pound, combined with “big long-term fiscal questions” posed by the UK's future outside the EU, justify the synchronized sell-off in currency and rates markets, says Daiwa's Scicluna.
Given rising price pressures and jittery foreign-investor sentiment amid a current-account deficit that widened to a two-and-a-half-year high in the second-quarter at 5.9 percent of GDP, the Bank of England's limited room to cut rates this year “is another indication of the UK's emerging-market style” macroeconomic challenges, Scicluna concludes.
“The pound used to be a relatively simple currency that used to trade on cyclical events and data, but now it has become a political and structural currency,” wrote David Bloom, strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in a note on Friday. “The currency is now the de facto official opposition to the government’s policies.”
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