Robust retail sales figures boost hopes of UK economic recovery
Friday 17 August 2012
Related articles
Stronger-than-expected retail sales in July raised hopes that Britain's double-dip recession might turn out to be shallower than initially expected.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported yesterday that retail sales volumes rose by 0.3 per cent over the month. City analysts had expected a small contraction.
The ONS also revised up its volume figures for June from a rise of 0.1 per cent to 0.8 per cent.
Last month the ONS estimated that UK GDP contracted by 0.7 cent in the second quarter of 2012, suggesting that Britain was in a steepening downturn.
But analysts said the latest retail output, combined with a better-than-expected construction and maufactuing performance in June, might see the quarter's figures revised up to a contraction of just 0.5 per cent in the ONS's second estimate next week.
Further, the Bank of England has estimated that the extra bank holiday in June artificially suppressed second-quarter growth by 0.5 per cent, meaning the economy was actually flat in the second quarter.
This view was reinforced by comments from Martin Weale, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), yesterday, who said the UK economy was stagnating rather than contracting.
"For quite a long period now, we have had slight upward movement, and slight downward movement. Rather than describe it as a double-dip recession, I would describe it as a sustained period of stagnation," he said.
The MPC has expressed the hope that falling inflation will lessen the squeeze on real household incomes, and encourage more spending.
The ONS reported yesterday that the shop price deflator – a measure of inflation in the retail sector – fell to 0.2 per cent in July, its lowest level since October 2009.
Nevertheless, there remained signs of weakness in the latest retail figures. Excluding petrol sales, volumes were flat on the month and non-food sales fell by 0.5 per cent.
Asda boss backs easing Sunday trading laws
Andy Clarke, the chief executive of Asda, has revealed he is in favour of loosening Sunday trading restrictions, as the UK's second-biggest supermarket posted a slowdown in its second-quarter sales growth.
Ahead of the Olympics and Paralympics, the Government allowed retailers to choose their own opening hours from 22 July to 9 September – instead of a maximum of six hours for shops bigger than 3,000 square feet. Mr Clarke said shoppers had responded positively to the change. He added: "If giving greater flexibility to shopping hours pleases customers, I would support that [extension]."
Asda posted a 0.7 per cent rise in sales over the three months to 30 June, compared with a 2.2 per cent uplift in the first quarter. Despite this, Asda has outperformed Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury's over the last 12 weeks, according to Kantar Worldpanel.
James Thompson
-
Notes from a small island: Is Sealand an independent 'micronation' or an illegal fortress?
-
Justin Bieber's unfinished monkey business
-
World news in pictures
-
David Cameron goes to war with press over 'swivel-eyed loons' slur
-
Revealed: Eerie new images show forgotten French apartment that was abandoned at the outbreak of World War II and left untouched for 70 years
- 1 Tears and cheers as David Beckham ends glittering career after helping PSG to final win
- 2 Heading for America? Prepare for the longest US immigration queues ever
- 3 You thought Ryanair's attendants had it bad? Wait 'til you hear about their pilots
- 4 David Cameron goes to war with press over 'swivel-eyed loons' slur
- 5 It’s official: thanks to Stephen Hawking's Israel boycott, anti-Semitism is no more
Get your summer started with British Military Fitness
BMF is the UK’s biggest and best loved outdoor fitness classes
Visit York
Find out what The Independent's resident travel expert has to say about one of the most beautiful small cities in the world
Enter the latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
Business videos from commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.
iJobs Money & Business
Fidessa Analyst / PM - Banking - London - £600pd
£550 - £600 per day: Orgtel: Fidessa Analyst / PM - Banking - London - Up to £...
Sourcing Manager - Banking - London - £500pd
£450 - £500 per day: Orgtel: Sourcing Manager - Banking - London - Up to £500p...
School Finance Assistant (part-time, term-time only)
To be discussed at interview.: Queen Elizabeth's School: An experienced and ef...
Java Developer - Munich OR Milian
£294.05 - £330.92 per day + 150 per day travel and accommodation: Orgtel: A le...
Day In a Page
The price of pacifism
Jason Isaacs: Groupies, theatre bores and James Bond
Sealand: 'Micronation' or illegal fortress?
Legend of James Hunt has set Hollywood hearts racing
Macklemore: 'I don't have moderation'
Don't be shy: Bill Granger's Sri Lankan recipes
Gordon Ramsay's worst nightmare: A restaurant he cannot save



Comments