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Scottish independence: Late surge at the bookies as punters catch referendum fever

Thursday 18 September 2014 12:49 BST

(Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Images)

As voters head to the polls, it seems thousands of punters have already headed to the bookies as a huge increase in bets have been placed on the outcome in the past few days.

Ladbrokes revealed it took a record £250,000-worth of bets across the country on Monday, while Paddy Power said it was the largest non-sporting market ever for the company, taking over six figures yesterday.

And if the votes goes the nationalists’ way and Scotland splits from the Union, some bookmakers believe they could be up to £1m out of pocket, depending on how width of the margin.

In Scotland, just 30 per cent of punters are backing the Yes vote, although it is slightly higher than the 28 per cent backing a Yes vote across the entire UK.

Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

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1/7Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

The 2015 General Election

If it votes for independence, Scotland won’t leave the union until 2016 meaning, under current arrangements, that if Scots decide to go it alone they will still vote in the 2015 general election. The possibility of Scotland swinging the vote in favour of the government with which it will negotiate their independence has led some to call for the elections to be delayed. Downing Street has said, however, that it has no plans to postpone the election despite claims a yes vote could lead to a constitutional crisis.

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Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

The NHS

Alex Salmond has said a Yes vote in the referendum is the only way to save Scotland’s National Health Service. This claim was undermined, however, yesterday when research published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies determined that Scotland’s devolved government spent less in real terms on its health service than England. Despite this, the splitting up of the NHS would be more straightforward than other institutions, as it is already managed from Holyrood.

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Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

The BBC

The Licence fee in Scotland currently raises around £230m which the Yes campaign says it would use, along with the assets of BBC Scotland, to create a Scottish Broadcasting Service or SBS. It says the SBS would continue to provide original content to the BBC and Scotland would receive access to all current programming, including BBC1, BBC2 and national radio stations. The government has said since February that an independent Scotland would lose any automatic rights to BBC programming.

Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

The Pound

The No Campaign is hoping that doubts over whether or not Scotland will be able to keep the pound will sway the referendum in its favour. George Osborne has said that the UK will not let Scotland keep the pound if it votes to leave the union and the leader of the Better Together coalition, former Chancellor Alistair Darling, has called the Yes campaign’s suggestion that it keep the currency “mad”. Alex Salmond has claimed repeatedly that Scotland will be able to retain the pound and has said speculation to the contrary is little more than fear mongering.

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Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

The Army

Britain’s involvement in the Iraq war and the stationing of the Trident Nuclear fleet north of the border are unpopular in Scotland. The Scottish Nationalists have railed against the war saying they would scrap Trident and create a new Scottish defence force based on existing Scottish regiments.

Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

The Royal Family

Scotland would keep the Queen as a head of state under current plans proposed by the Yes campaign, as Elizabeth Queen of Scots. It would also remain part of the Commonwealth. However a second referendum could be held to determine what form a new Scottish state would take.

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Scottish independence: What will happen to key British institutions?

Sport

Scotland’s Rugby and Football teams would remain as they are if Scotland voted to leave the UK but the British and Irish Lions could be forced into a name change. What would happen to the British Olympic Association also remains up for debate. Scotland’s most successful Olympian Sir Chris Hoy has said he is wary of independence because of the number of Scottish athletes living and training in England and what their status would be.

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Paddy Power admitted that it expected to pay out over the turnout levels, which it had thought would be around 60 per cent; the latest suggestions are that it could be 82 per cent – the highest election turnout in living memory.

At Ladbrokes, most of the bets in the past few days have been pro-independence money, including a £20,000 bet placed in west London, which led to the odds of a Yes win cut to 11-4 from 3-1.

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