Trinity predicts more volatility in advert market

The newspaper publisher Trinity Mirror warned yesterday of volatility in the advertising market through to 2008 as it reported amarginal increase in advert-ising revenues.

The group, which owns the Daily Mirror and around 200 regional titles, said its core revenues figure for the five months to the end of November increased by 2.1 per cent year-on-year. This compares with a decline of 1.5 per cent for the first half, resulting in an increase of 0.1 per cent over the 11 months. Last month, Trinity said ad revenues for the four months to the end of October were 2.7 per cent higher.

"The advertising environment in 2007 improved on previous years," the company said. "However, month-on-month volatility remains and we expect this to continue in 2008. The board is confident that our 2007 performance will be in line with expectations."

The group recently raised 263m from the sale of the Racing Post and seven businesses in London and the South-east. It is now focused on national and digital assets and its papers in Scotland, the north of England, Wales and the Midlands. Trinity said advertising revenues for its nationals division increased by 1 per cent for the 11 months, which compares with a decline of 2.3 per cent for the first half. Group circulation revenues increased by 0.7 per cent in the year, with the improvement driven by a 0.9 per cent rise for the nationals over the past five months.

Trinity added that it had applied for clearance from the Pensions Regulator for the return of capital to shareholders and expects to conclude discussions before the end of the year.

Earlier this week, Indep-endent News & Media, which publishes The Independent, said it anticipated a 3 per cent rise in 2007 revenues on a constant currency basis, driven by an increase of about 4 per cent in income from newspaper advertising. It issued a trading statement a week early to allay fears about the market after the regional newspaper group Johnston Press said advertising revenue at its Irish operations fell 1.2 per cent in the five months to 30 November due to a weakening property market. Johnston added that underlying UK print advertising revenue had almost fully recovered from the weakness in the first half.