World banking order to be overturned by 2020
Hedge fund predicts Europe, US and Japan to be ousted by emerging states
Sunday 14 April 2013
The world's banking landscape will be "unrecognisable" by 2020 with none of the major players coming from the US, Europe or Japan, a leading hedge fund has claimed.
Toscafund, the London-based investor founded by Martin Hughes, said banks from new growth economies (NGEs) such as China, Brazil and Russia will dominate the industry as others "retrench their activities to a mere regional presence" in the wake of the financial crisis.
"In some cases mergers and acquisitions among the old banking order will slow the evolution in the banking premier league," the chief economist Savvas Savouri said. "However, those across the new order will assert themselves through significant asset growth.
"In large parts this will be organic although assets will also be lifted by opportunistic acquisitions – banks across the 'new world' often buying what those from the 'old' are disposing as they retrench."
The hedge fund said a shift in power would not spell the end of the City of London as a major financial power, Dr Savouri argued in a discussion paper published this weekend.
London would remain a hugely popular destination for banks, but many of those located in the capital would no longer be British, European or American. Instead, the likes of Russia's Sberbank and Australia's ANZ and Westpac could be among the banks taking great swathes of office space in the Square Mile or the skyscrapers of Canary Wharf.
Dr Savouri added: "If one analogy best captures my thinking on successfully targeting London's new major office occupiers, it is a fishing one. Specifically, the place to aim isn't at the fish you are stalking, but rather just ahead of it.
"To predict who will arrive and build office footprints across London one should look not to names sliding down the ranking of the world's largest banks but to those now outside the top 20 and moving swiftly higher."
The paper also highlights Japan's decline as a major banking power. In 1990, 18 of the world's 20 biggest banks were Japanese; according to the rankings compiled by Toscafund, today there is only one, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial.
- 1 Tunisia hotel attack: Locals form 'human shield' to protect hotel from gunman Seifeddine Rezgui
- 2 David Cameron refers to 83-year-old Labour MP Dennis Skinner as 'Jurassic Park'
- 3 Alton Towers Air breaks down: 80 people stuck on broken down Monorail during heatwave
- 4 German ethics council calls for incest between siblings to be legalised by Government
- 5 Alwaleed bin Talal: Saudi Prince to donate entire $32bn fortune to charity
Tunisia hotel attack: Locals form 'human shield' to protect hotel from gunman Seifeddine Rezgui
The map showing the most dangerous tourist destinations in Europe, according to the Foreign Office
German ethics council calls for incest between siblings to be legalised by Government
Alwaleed bin Talal: Saudi Prince to donate entire $32bn fortune to charity
Forget little green men – aliens will look like humans, says Cambridge University evolution expert
The moment a Queen's Guard soldier lost it and drew his gun at annoying tourist
Greece crisis: IMF was pushed around by Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy – and now it is being humiliated
Greece crisis: The wider lesson is that it’s time to abandon this failed experiment in currencies
'I wish the BBC would stop calling it Islamic State' – David Cameron unleashes frustration at broadcaster
Girl, 7, stares down hate preacher at Ohio festival with pro-LGBT rainbow flag gesture
They are neither a 'state' nor 'Islamic': Why we shouldn't call them Isis, Isil or IS
iJobs Money & Business
£15000 - £17000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company offers a range of ...
£15000 - £16000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Customer Service Advisors are r...
£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE £45K: SThree: SThree were established in 1986....
£40000 - £60000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Compliance Manager is require...