The market is expecting positive news on both sides of the Atlantic from Taylor Wimpey today. The housebuilder is due to post a trading statement this morning, and Numis expects it to remain on track to meet full-year expectations. In the UK, the broker is anticipating news of strong forward sales and improved pricing. In the US, Numis says Taylor Wimpey should be making progress, with margins likely to be improving, but volumes expected to be hit by lower site numbers.
Deutsche Bank analysts believe there is significant value in the stock: "We forecast a continued strong order book despite a potentially weaker April and May. While only restrained land buying is anticipated we expect net debt will once again be guided back up to a flat level by full year."
Meanwhile UBS expects Taylor Wimpey to guide to UK volumes of about 4,800 homes in the first half, at an average sales price of £166,000. It has forecast earnings before interest and tax margins of 4.9 per cent and a pre-tax loss of about £39m. Analysts at the broker agreed sales were likely to have come off in the past two months "as both the election uncertainty and the usual seasonal decline kicked in".
Today: Banking group Standard Chartered is putting out a pre-close trading statement. Alastair Ryan, analyst at UBS, said the update would be in the bank's traditional form of "long on 'feel' and short on detailed figures". He expects positive half-year results driven by upgrades in GDP growth across Asia. "Standard Chartered faces neither the funding nor the sovereign strains of many peers and exchange rates have been moving positively for the group in recent months," he said.
Results/updates: Creston, Standard Chartered and Taylor Wimpey.
Tomorrow: The outsourcing group Serco is due to post a pre-close update tomorrow. Any comments on the recent emergency Budget statement will no doubt be scrutinised as investors seek to work out the impact of the coalition Government's plans. William Vanderpump, an analyst at UBS, said: "There will be market interest in the status of opportunities within the new government, especially the Welfare to Work programme, where there is some uncertainty about scope and bid process". He said the group had benefited from a steady stream of small and medium contracts rather than any very large awards. As a gauge, in its last update in May, the company said it was on track to deliver on its financial guidance for 2010, and saw "substantial opportunities around the world".
Separately, Carpetright has announced sales growth of 7.5 per cent for the 51 weeks to 24 April, in line with expectations. "UK market conditions were reported to be difficult with sales in the last four weeks of the period falling below expectations, leading to full year 2011 downgrades," analysts at UBS said. The broker is forecasting revenue of £519m and pre-tax profits of £28.2m.
Results/Updates: Arriva, Carpetright, Porvair, Pursuit Dynamics, Scott Wilson, Serco and WPP Group.
Wednesday: Commercial vehicle rental group Northgate is publishing its full-year results on Wednesday. Alex Hugh at UBS expects revenue of £737m, down from £771m the previous year, although he expects profits to rise from £28m last year to £37m. "This is likely to be a story of two countries, with the UK improving and showing utilisation back to historic levels and prices gradually improving," Mr Hugh said. "Spain on the other hand is likely to show weaker utilisation and stable pricing." No dividend is expected but there is forecast to be guidance on cost savings over the next 12 months.
Results/updates – Investec, HMV, Home Retail Group and Northgate.
Thursday: The City is anticipating news of £124m in pre-tax profits when Greene King issues its full-year figures. If achieved, the results would compare favourably with last year, when the pubs group notched up £118m in pre-tax profits. The dividend per share is expected to remain unchanged at 21p, according to a consensus forecast from 18 analysts.
Looking ahead, Numis said growth in 2011 should come from the group using its strong cash flow to pay down debt and invest in its managed pub estate. "We believe there is a reasonable chance [that forecasts for 2010] will be beaten, but expect management caution in relation to 2011 to limit [the] scope for upgrades," the broker added in a preview last week.
Geoff Collyer, an analyst at Deutsche Bank said: "Greene King has made public statements about being confident about handling the outcome of the forthcoming budget, based on the momentum of the divisional performances as well as its ability, with cash in the bank, to be able to take advantage of cheap but good quality assets that may come on to the market from distressed sellers."
Results/updates: Greene King, Wood Group and Debenhams.
Friday: Results/updates: None significant.
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