The Week Ahead: Insurer Aviva could cut dividend, says ING

The dividend will be in focus when the FTSE 100-listed insurer Aviva posts its interim results on Thursday, with some in the City forecasting a cut.

ING, which maintains a positive stance on the group (and which was not among those disappointed by the Aviva's decision to stick with last year's dividend) views a reduction as logical this time around.

"We believe the dividend cut we forecast [for the first half and the 2009 full year] will ultimately prove a simple decision for the Aviva board to take," the broker said in a preview note, pointing to the group's previous guidance on coverage. ING expects the interim dividend to be cut to 8.75p from 13.09p, and the full-year payout to be scaled back from 33p to 25p. Cazenove, meanwhile, expects management to signal a 33 per cent cut in the full-year dividend, from 33p to to 22p. Assuming a reversion to a 35-65 split between the interim and the final dividend, Cazenove's forecast implies a 7.7p payout for the first half of the year.

Today: Following a positive first-quarter update, the computer networking and IT specialist Telecity's first-half results are likely to be in line with management expectations and market consensus, according to UBS. "We are modelling revenues of £77m and [earnings] of £25m," the broker said. "Management is also likely to confirm its expectations for the full year, with a chance of guidance being increased".

Also today, Numis is predicting a "typically strong" performance from the software group Fidessa, which is due to post interim results. "We also look for management to reinstate guidance. This was pulled at the [full-year] results due to uncertainty in the end markets, but we believe visibility may be returning," Numis said.

Results/updates: Allocate Software, Fidessa, Hammerson, Intertek, Management Consulting, Ultra Electronics, Xchanging, Barclays, HSBC, Telecity.

Tomorrow: Results/updates: Cookson, Drax, Legal & General, Standard Chartered, Tullett Prebon, William Hill, Xstrata, Meggitt and Rotork.

Wednesday: The housebuilder Taylor Wimpey's interim results are expected to confirm more stable trends in the property sector, but even a steadying of the market should not detract from "weak economic fundamentals and increasing unemployment levels", according to Panmure Gordon's analysts. "In our view, the recent momentum seen in the housebuilding sector is not sustainable and we believe conditions will deteriorate over the coming weeks," the broker said. "Economic news remains weak, unemployment continues to rise and mortgage liquidity remains at historically low levels."

Evolution Securities anticipates an encouraging top-line performance when Premier Foods, owner of brands including Hovis bread and Branston pickle, posts its half-year results. "The company stated in a trading update in June that sales trends from the first four months of the year continued into May and June. Sales were up 3 per cent in the first four months but like-for-like sales (excluding the loss of a marginal bulk flour contract) were up 6 per cent," it said, adding that such trends should have persisted into the second quarter.

Also on Wednesday, WS Atkins is due to publish a trading statement. Given the relatively recent full year results release, UBS does not expect surprises. "Potentially the Middle East market may start to improve but we don't expect any material change in the UK position," the broker said.

Results/updates: Mondi, F&C Asset Management, Old Mutual, Lloyds, WS Atkins, Premier Foods, Taylor Wimpey.

Thursday: Deutsche Bank expects to hear of strong growth when Cobham posts interim results later this week, with the group benefiting from positive foreign exchange movements and acquisitions. "We expect management to be positive over outlook, with organic growth expected to accelerate in the second half of the year," the broker said.

Also on Thursday, Ladbrokes is due to publish half-year results. UBS is forecasting the bookmaker's earnings before interest and tax to be down by 8 per cent for the six months to 30 June, at £156.3m, with the interim dividend likely to be unchanged. UBS says the outlook for the second half is "relatively cautious due to the reliance on UK retail profits and the uncertainty of making the Italian operations profitable".

Results/updates: Fiberweb, Schroders, RSA Insurance, Ladbrokes, Cobham, Aviva.

Friday: Results/updates: Catlin, Logica, Royal Bank of Scotland.

Economics Diary

Today: Manufacturing purchasing managers' index; US business confidence index.

Tomorrow: Eurozone producer prices; Spain unemployment; US home sales.

Wednesday: Nationwide consumer confidence index; Services purchasing managers index; manufacturing output for June.

Thursday: Bank of England MPC announcement; Japan leading indicators; Eurozone ECB announcement; US Weekly jobless claims.

Friday: Producer prices; Germany current account; US unemployment.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
Life and Style
Steve Shaw shows Kate how to get wet behind the ears and how to align her neck
healthSteven Shaw - the 'Buddha of Breaststroke' - applies Alexander Technique to the watery sport
Arts and Entertainment
The sight of a bucking bronco in the shape of a pink penis was too much for Hollywood actor and gay rights supporter Martin Sheen, prompting him to boycott a scene in the TV series Grace and Frankie
tv
Sport
footballShirt then goes on sale on Gumtree
Voices
Terry Sue-Patt as Benny in the BBC children’s soap ‘Grange Hill’
voicesGrace Dent on Grange Hill and Terry Sue-Patt
Arts and Entertainment
Performers drink tea at the Glastonbury festival in 2010
music
Arts and Entertainment
Twin Peaks stars Joan Chen, Michael Ontkean, Kyle Maclachlan and Piper Laurie
tvName confirmed for third series
Sport
Cameron Jerome
footballCanaries beat Boro to gain promotion to the Premier League
Arts and Entertainment
art
News
ebookA unique anthology of reporting and analysis of a crucial period of history
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Guru Careers: Software Developer / C# Developer

£40-50K: Guru Careers: We are seeking an experienced Software / C# Developer w...

Neil Pavier: Management Accountant

£45,000 - £55,000: Neil Pavier: Are you looking for your next opportunity for ...

Sheridan Maine: Commercial Accountant

£45,000 - £55,000: Sheridan Maine: Are you a newly qualified ACA/ACCA/ACMA qua...

Laura Norton: Project Accountant

£50,000 - £60,000: Laura Norton: Are you looking for an opportunity within a w...

Day In a Page

Abuse - and the hell that came afterwards

Abuse - and the hell that follows

James Rhodes on the extraordinary legal battle to publish his memoir
Why we need a 'tranquility map' of England, according to campaigners

It's oh so quiet!

The case for a 'tranquility map' of England
'Timeless fashion': It may be a paradox, but the industry loves it

'Timeless fashion'

It may be a paradox, but the industry loves it
If the West needs a bridge to the 'moderates' inside Isis, maybe we could have done with Osama bin Laden staying alive after all

Could have done with Osama bin Laden staying alive?

Robert Fisk on the Fountainheads of World Evil in 2011 - and 2015
New exhibition celebrates the evolution of swimwear

Evolution of swimwear

From bathing dresses in the twenties to modern bikinis
Sun, sex and an anthropological study: One British academic's summer of hell in Magaluf

Sun, sex and an anthropological study

One academic’s summer of hell in Magaluf
From Shakespeare to Rising Damp... to Vicious

Frances de la Tour's 50-year triumph

'Rising Damp' brought De la Tour such recognition that she could be forgiven if she'd never been able to move on. But at 70, she continues to flourish - and to beguile
'That Whitsun, I was late getting away...'

Ian McMillan on the Whitsun Weddings

This weekend is Whitsun, and while the festival may no longer resonate, Larkin's best-loved poem, lives on - along with the train journey at the heart of it
Kathryn Williams explores the works and influences of Sylvia Plath in a new light

Songs from the bell jar

Kathryn Williams explores the works and influences of Sylvia Plath
How one man's day in high heels showed him that Cannes must change its 'no flats' policy

One man's day in high heels

...showed him that Cannes must change its 'flats' policy
Is a quiet crusade to reform executive pay bearing fruit?

Is a quiet crusade to reform executive pay bearing fruit?

Dominic Rossi of Fidelity says his pressure on business to control rewards is working. But why aren’t other fund managers helping?
The King David Hotel gives precious work to Palestinians - unless peace talks are on

King David Hotel: Palestinians not included

The King David is special to Jerusalem. Nick Kochan checked in and discovered it has some special arrangements, too
More people moving from Australia to New Zealand than in the other direction for first time in 24 years

End of the Aussie brain drain

More people moving from Australia to New Zealand than in the other direction for first time in 24 years
Meditation is touted as a cure for mental instability but can it actually be bad for you?

Can meditation be bad for you?

Researching a mass murder, Dr Miguel Farias discovered that, far from bringing inner peace, meditation can leave devotees in pieces
Eurovision 2015: Australians will be cheering on their first-ever entrant this Saturday

Australia's first-ever Eurovision entrant

Australia, a nation of kitsch-worshippers, has always loved the Eurovision Song Contest. Maggie Alderson says it'll fit in fine