The Week Ahead: Insurer Aviva could cut dividend, says ING

The dividend will be in focus when the FTSE 100-listed insurer Aviva posts its interim results on Thursday, with some in the City forecasting a cut.

ING, which maintains a positive stance on the group (and which was not among those disappointed by the Aviva's decision to stick with last year's dividend) views a reduction as logical this time around.

"We believe the dividend cut we forecast [for the first half and the 2009 full year] will ultimately prove a simple decision for the Aviva board to take," the broker said in a preview note, pointing to the group's previous guidance on coverage. ING expects the interim dividend to be cut to 8.75p from 13.09p, and the full-year payout to be scaled back from 33p to 25p. Cazenove, meanwhile, expects management to signal a 33 per cent cut in the full-year dividend, from 33p to to 22p. Assuming a reversion to a 35-65 split between the interim and the final dividend, Cazenove's forecast implies a 7.7p payout for the first half of the year.

Today: Following a positive first-quarter update, the computer networking and IT specialist Telecity's first-half results are likely to be in line with management expectations and market consensus, according to UBS. "We are modelling revenues of £77m and [earnings] of £25m," the broker said. "Management is also likely to confirm its expectations for the full year, with a chance of guidance being increased".

Also today, Numis is predicting a "typically strong" performance from the software group Fidessa, which is due to post interim results. "We also look for management to reinstate guidance. This was pulled at the [full-year] results due to uncertainty in the end markets, but we believe visibility may be returning," Numis said.

Results/updates: Allocate Software, Fidessa, Hammerson, Intertek, Management Consulting, Ultra Electronics, Xchanging, Barclays, HSBC, Telecity.

Tomorrow: Results/updates: Cookson, Drax, Legal & General, Standard Chartered, Tullett Prebon, William Hill, Xstrata, Meggitt and Rotork.

Wednesday: The housebuilder Taylor Wimpey's interim results are expected to confirm more stable trends in the property sector, but even a steadying of the market should not detract from "weak economic fundamentals and increasing unemployment levels", according to Panmure Gordon's analysts. "In our view, the recent momentum seen in the housebuilding sector is not sustainable and we believe conditions will deteriorate over the coming weeks," the broker said. "Economic news remains weak, unemployment continues to rise and mortgage liquidity remains at historically low levels."

Evolution Securities anticipates an encouraging top-line performance when Premier Foods, owner of brands including Hovis bread and Branston pickle, posts its half-year results. "The company stated in a trading update in June that sales trends from the first four months of the year continued into May and June. Sales were up 3 per cent in the first four months but like-for-like sales (excluding the loss of a marginal bulk flour contract) were up 6 per cent," it said, adding that such trends should have persisted into the second quarter.

Also on Wednesday, WS Atkins is due to publish a trading statement. Given the relatively recent full year results release, UBS does not expect surprises. "Potentially the Middle East market may start to improve but we don't expect any material change in the UK position," the broker said.

Results/updates: Mondi, F&C Asset Management, Old Mutual, Lloyds, WS Atkins, Premier Foods, Taylor Wimpey.

Thursday: Deutsche Bank expects to hear of strong growth when Cobham posts interim results later this week, with the group benefiting from positive foreign exchange movements and acquisitions. "We expect management to be positive over outlook, with organic growth expected to accelerate in the second half of the year," the broker said.

Also on Thursday, Ladbrokes is due to publish half-year results. UBS is forecasting the bookmaker's earnings before interest and tax to be down by 8 per cent for the six months to 30 June, at £156.3m, with the interim dividend likely to be unchanged. UBS says the outlook for the second half is "relatively cautious due to the reliance on UK retail profits and the uncertainty of making the Italian operations profitable".

Results/updates: Fiberweb, Schroders, RSA Insurance, Ladbrokes, Cobham, Aviva.

Friday: Results/updates: Catlin, Logica, Royal Bank of Scotland.

Economics Diary

Today: Manufacturing purchasing managers' index; US business confidence index.

Tomorrow: Eurozone producer prices; Spain unemployment; US home sales.

Wednesday: Nationwide consumer confidence index; Services purchasing managers index; manufacturing output for June.

Thursday: Bank of England MPC announcement; Japan leading indicators; Eurozone ECB announcement; US Weekly jobless claims.

Friday: Producer prices; Germany current account; US unemployment.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
ebooksA special investigation by Andy McSmith
Arts and Entertainment
'I do think a woman's place is eventually in the home, but I see no harm in her having some fun before she gets there.'
Arts and Entertainment
Chris Martin of Coldplay performs live for fans at Enmore Theatre on June 19, 2014 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Dave Mackay lifts the FA Cup in 1967 having skippered Spurs to victory
Life and Style
Marie had fake ID, in the name of Johanna Koch, after she evaded capture by the Nazis in wartime Berlin
historyOne woman's secret life as a Jew in wartime Berlin
Jihadi John
newsMonikers like 'Jihadi John' make the grim sound glamorous
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Ashdown Group: Junior Application Support Analyst - Fluent German Speaker

£25000 - £30000 per annum + benefits: Ashdown Group: A global leader operating...

Recruitment Genius: Customer Service Advisor

£15000 - £16000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Customer Service Advisor is r...

Ashdown Group: Trainee Consultant - Surrey / South West London

£22000 per annum + pension,bonus,career progression: Ashdown Group: An establi...

SThree: HR Benefits Manager

£40000 - £50000 per annum + pro rata: SThree: SThree Group have been well esta...

Day In a Page

Syrian conflict is the world's first 'climate change war', say scientists, but it won't be the last one

Climate change key in Syrian conflict

And it will trigger more war in future
How I outwitted the Gestapo

How I outwitted the Gestapo

My life as a Jew in wartime Berlin
The nation's favourite animal revealed

The nation's favourite animal revealed

Women like cuddly creatures whilst men like creepy-crawlies
Is this the way to get young people to vote?

Getting young people to vote

From #VOTESELFISH to Bite the Ballot
Poldark star Heida Reed: 'I don't think a single bodice gets ripped'

Poldark star Heida Reed

'I don't think a single bodice gets ripped'
The difference between America and Israel? There isn’t one

The difference between America and Israel? There isn’t one

Netanyahu knows he can get away with anything in America, says Robert Fisk
Families clubbing together to build their own affordable accommodation

Do It Yourself approach to securing a new house

Community land trusts marking a new trend for taking the initiative away from developers
Head of WWF UK: We didn’t send Cameron to the Arctic to see green ideas freeze

David Nussbaum: We didn’t send Cameron to the Arctic to see green ideas freeze

The head of WWF UK remains sanguine despite the Government’s failure to live up to its pledges on the environment
Author Kazuo Ishiguro on being inspired by shoot-outs and samurai

Author Kazuo Ishiguro on being inspired by shoot-outs and samurai

Set in a mythologised 5th-century Britain, ‘The Buried Giant’ is a strange beast
With money, corruption and drugs, this monk fears Buddhism in Thailand is a ‘poisoned fruit’

Money, corruption and drugs

The monk who fears Buddhism in Thailand is a ‘poisoned fruit’
America's first slavery museum established at Django Unchained plantation - 150 years after slavery outlawed

150 years after it was outlawed...

... America's first slavery museum is established in Louisiana
Kelly Clarkson: How I snubbed Simon Cowell and become a Grammy-winning superstar

Kelly Clarkson: How I snubbed Simon Cowell and become a Grammy-winning superstar

The first 'American Idol' winner on how she manages to remain her own woman – Jane Austen fascination and all
Tony Oursler on exploring our uneasy relationship with technology with his new show

You won't believe your eyes

Tony Oursler's new show explores our uneasy relationship with technology. He's one of a growing number of artists with that preoccupation
Ian Herbert: Peter Moores must go. He should never have been brought back to fail again

Moores must go. He should never have been brought back to fail again

The England coach leaves players to find solutions - which makes you wonder where he adds value, says Ian Herbert
War with Isis: Fears that the looming battle for Mosul will unleash 'a million refugees'

The battle for Mosul will unleash 'a million refugees'

Aid agencies prepare for vast exodus following planned Iraqi offensive against the Isis-held city, reports Patrick Cockburn