The Week Ahead: TUI Travel cannot escape the turbulence altogether

 

While Thomas Cook has been engaged in a struggle for its future, fellow operator TUI Travel has been faring rather better. Its bitter rival may have lost roughly 60 per cent of its share price sinceadmitting last month it needed more cash to survive, but over the same period TUI has managed to advance 10 per cent.

Today, TUI issues its first update since its peer revealed trading had deteriorated, and its preliminary results will therefore be keenly watched either for signs that it has been facing a similar slowdown or that it has in fact been given a boost by the developments.

Numis Securities' Wyn Ellis believes it will be the latter, claiming that "future headlines in the press are likely to be disconcerting for Thomas Cook customers" and that they will "book with other brands" as a result, resulting in TUI enjoying its "best summer ever" in 2012.

However, although Charles Stanley's Douglas McNeill says TUI "tends to cope with weak demand better" than its rival, he also warns it cannot "remain entirely unscathed". Aside from this, Mr McNeill will be closely looking at its debt levels, which are expected to have dropped for the second consecutive year, as well as exceptional charges.

The company said in September that it was on track to meet the City's expectations. House broker Royal Bank of Scotland says it could even beat them, predicting earnings of £480m, while adding that it also thinks there will be no major changes to forecasts for the next financial year.

Today

The recent choppy markets have resulted in a number of fund managers suffering from clients pulling out their cash, with Aberdeen Asset Management already having announced back in September that £800m had been withdrawn in July and August. The group starts the week with its preliminary results when, Barclays Capital believes, it will reveal its assets under management for the year have dropped 7 per cent to £165.5bn.

This would represent a further 6 per cent slide from its last update, thanks – say analysts from the broker – to the sharp fall during September in both emerging markets and Asian equities. However, although they predict Aberdeen will "outline industry-wide caution", they still say it remains in a relatively good position thanks to its impressive track record as well as a bias towards institutions.

Results and updates: Aberdeen Asset Management and TUI Travel.

Tomorrow

Tuesday brings Northgate's interimresults, which come nearly three months after the UK's largest van-rental business assured investors that it was on line to meet its targets despite the current economic woes. Peel Hunt's analysts believe trading conditions will have held up since then and forecasts a pre-tax profit for the first half of the year of £31.7m – a 17 per cent rise – thanks in part to a number of self-help measures.

Results and updates: EasyJet, Northgate, Victrex and Wolseley.

Wednesday

Carillion unveils its pre-close update on Wednesday. Peel Hunt's Andrew Nussey expects its pre-tax profits for the year to total £210m, thanks in part to "the momentum achieved" over the first half of the year and the synergies resulting from the recent £300m acquisition of the energy-services firm Eaga.

The focus, however, will be on thefuture thanks to the Government's plans to slash solar-panel subsidies, which the company warned last week could result in 4,500 of its staff losing their jobs.

Results and updates: Brewin Dolphin, Carillion, DS Smith, Kesa Electricals, Micro Focus and Stagecoach.

Thursday

Tesco launched its "Big Price Drop" in September and will be hoping its third-quarter trading statement will show it has reaped the benefits from the £500m price offensive. The supermarket has already publicly made optimistic noises, though Deutsche Bank's James Collins notes management concede that in the short term, they will not have recovered costs. The analyst believes like-for-like UK sales – excluding VAT and fuel – will have fallen 0.5 per cent, an improvement from the 0.9 per cent drop suffered over the last quarter.

Results and updates: Ashtead, Premier Farnell, PZ Cussons, Standard Chartered and Tesco.

Friday

Results and updates: None expected.

 

 

Economics Diary

MONDAY Eurozone retail sales; Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence; Services PMI;US factory orders; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

TOMORROW German factory orders.

WEDNESDAY Manufacturing production; Niesr GDP estimate; US oil inventories; US budget balance.

THURSDAY European Central Bank press conference; Official bank rate; US unemployment claims.

FRIDAY PPI data; Trade balance; US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment; US trade.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
ebooks
ebooksAn introduction to the ground rules of British democracy
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
SPONSORED FEATURES
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

SThree: Experienced Recruitment Consultant

£20000 - £40000 per annum + OTE + Incentives + Benefits: SThree: Established f...

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant

£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE 40/45k + INCENTIVES + BENEFITS: SThree: The su...

Recruitment Genius: Collections Agent

£14000 - £16000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company was established in...

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant

£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE 40k: SThree: SThree are a global FTSE 250 busi...

Day In a Page

Isis profits from destruction of antiquities by selling relics to dealers - and then blowing up the buildings they come from to conceal the evidence of looting

How Isis profits from destruction of antiquities

Robert Fisk on the terrorist group's manipulation of the market to increase the price of artefacts
Labour leadership: Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea

'If we lose touch we’ll end up with two decades of the Tories'

In an exclusive interview, Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea
Tunisia fears its Arab Spring could be reversed as the new regime becomes as intolerant of dissent as its predecessor

The Arab Spring reversed

Tunisian protesters fear that a new law will whitewash corrupt businessmen and officials, but they are finding that the new regime is becoming as intolerant of dissent as its predecessor
King Arthur: Legendary figure was real and lived most of his life in Strathclyde, academic claims

Academic claims King Arthur was real - and reveals where he lived

Dr Andrew Breeze says the legendary figure did exist – but was a general, not a king
Who is Oliver Bonas and how has he captured middle-class hearts?

Who is Oliver Bonas?

It's the first high-street store to pay its staff the living wage, and it saw out the recession in style
Earth has 'lost more than half its trees' since humans first started cutting them down

Axe-wielding Man fells half the world’s trees – leaving us just 422 each

However, the number of trees may be eight times higher than previously thought
60 years of Scalextric: Model cars are now stuffed with as much tech as real ones

60 years of Scalextric

Model cars are now stuffed with as much tech as real ones
Theme parks continue to draw in thrill-seekers despite the risks - so why are we so addicted?

Why are we addicted to theme parks?

Now that Banksy has unveiled his own dystopian version, Christopher Beanland considers the ups and downs of our endless quest for amusement
Tourism in Iran: The country will soon be opening up again after years of isolation

Iran is opening up again to tourists

After years of isolation, Iran is reopening its embassies abroad. Soon, there'll be the chance for the adventurous to holiday there
10 best PS4 games

10 best PS4 games

Can’t wait for the new round of blockbusters due out this autumn? We played through last year’s offering
Transfer window: Ten things we learnt

Ten things we learnt from the transfer window

Record-breaking spending shows FFP restraint no longer applies
Migrant crisis: UN official Philippe Douste-Blazy reveals the harrowing sights he encountered among refugees arriving on Lampedusa

‘Can we really just turn away?’

Dead bodies, men drowning, women miscarrying – a senior UN figure on the horrors he has witnessed among migrants arriving on Lampedusa, and urges politicians not to underestimate our caring nature
Nine of Syria and Iraq's 10 world heritage sites are in danger as Isis ravages centuries of history

Nine of Syria and Iraq's 10 world heritage sites are in danger...

... and not just because of Isis vandalism
Girl on a Plane: An exclusive extract of the novelisation inspired by the 1970 Palestinian fighters hijack

Girl on a Plane

An exclusive extract of the novelisation inspired by the 1970 Palestinian fighters hijack
Why Frederick Forsyth's spying days could spell disaster for today's journalists

Why Frederick Forsyth's spying days could spell disaster for today's journalists

The author of 'The Day of the Jackal' has revealed he spied for MI6 while a foreign correspondent