The Week Ahead: Unseasonal weather takes toll on high street stores

While the recent Indian summer is beginning to seem like a distant memory, the retailers are just starting to count the cost. The surprisingly high temperatures caught the high street unaware, with shoppers not too keen on stocking up their winter wardrobe with scarves and woolly jumpers. Therefore, investors will be holding their breath when Next unveils its third-quarter update on Wednesday, coming as it does ahead of figures from a number of its peers in the world of clothing retail.

Liberum Capital's Simon Irwin believes that the "timing could not possibly [have been] worse" for the unseasonal weather given "weakening consumer confidence, peaking input prices and high levels of inventory". He warns that sales across the sector may have been hit by as much as 10 per cent, adding that there "are clear signs ... promotional activity is starting to increase".

From Next specifically, Mr Irwin expects "another weak performance" from its stores. He is predicting a 4 per cent drop in like-for-like sales and forecasts that growth at its Directory division – which sells both online and by mail order – will have slowed. Although the analyst admits that the risk taken by the company in buying its stock earlier paid off over the first half of the year, he warns that there is "little guarantee of future success".

Deutsche Bank's Charlie Muir-Sands also believes Next's sales figures will have been hit by the weather, and is even more bearish on its like-for-like sales figures, expecting a drop of 6.5 per cent from its retail operations.

However, he believes that, with both sides of the business, a "proportion of these ... sales has been deferred into the fourth-quarter rather than lost", adding that the Directory unit will continued to have grown overseas.

Today

Although he warns that the bank's figures for the third-quarter "will not be pretty", Evolution Securities' Ian Gordon still expects Barclays to "remain solidly profitable" when it updates the market today, with Barcap outperforming its rivals. Nonetheless, he predicts that the investment banking division will reveal a 16 per cent drop in revenues from the previous three months, with most of the damage done by its fixed-income, currency and commodities operations.

Results/Updates: Barclays, Capital Shopping Centres, Centamin Egypt and Mondi.

Tomorrow

Results/Updates: Aegis, Imperial Tob- acco, Legal & General, National Express and Rathbones.

Wednesday

The recent market slump was a particular blow for BT, with the telecoms giant's huge pension fund deficit increasing as equities fell. With the rally coming after the end of the company's second quarter, Citigroup's Simon Weeden believes its figures for the period, posted on Wednesday, will show a £1bn worsening in its deficit. The analyst also says BT could unveil an increase in its interim dividend of more than 8 per cent to 2.6p, although he adds that he "will not be overly concerned if BT holds back at this stage given the recently volatile markets".

This volatility will be in focus for Standard Life as well, with the insurer unveiling numbers for the third-quarter including assets under management and new business sales. JP Morgan Cazenove is expecting its individual pension operations to see a mere 5 per cent growth because of a drop in inflows, while the broker predicts the group's assets under administration will have fallen 6.5 per cent from the previous quarter to £187bn.

Results/Updates: Antofagasta, Henderson, Inmarsat, Logica, Next, Randgold Resources, Standard Life and St James's Place.

Thursday

After the pubs group JD Wetherspoon saw a 0.4 per cent jump in its like-for-like sales over August, analysts at Espirito Santo say that since trading over that month will have been hit by the riots around the country, both September and October should have enjoyed a slight improvement.

For the first quarter overall – which the company announces its update for on Thursday – analysts from the broker believe its sales will have risen by around 1.4 per cent year on year, a small slowdown from the previous three months.

Results/Updates: Aviva, BT, Cable & Wireless Communications, Invensys, JD Wetherspoon, Man Group, Old Mutual, RSA Insurance, Shanks, Spirent, Tate & Lyle and Unilever.

Friday

Results/Updates: EasyJet, Lancashire Holdings, Meggitt, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Royal Bank of Scotland, Smith & Nephew and Spirax & Sarco.

Economic Diary

TODAY Bank of England lending figures; BSA savings and mortgage lending figures; eurozone CPI inflation estimate; eurozone unemployment rate; Hometrack house prices

TOMORROW Cips manufacturing PMI; eurozone manufacturing PMI; Preliminary third-quarter GDP figures; Service sector data; US construction spending; ISM manufacturing

WEDNESDAY Cips construction PMI; US ADP employment change; US interest rate decision

THURSDAY Cips services PMI; ECB rate decision; eurozone services PMI; US factory orders

FRIDAY Eurozone PPI; PPI data; US non-farm payrolls; US jobs data

PROMOTED VIDEO
News
ebooksAn unforgettable anthology of contemporary reportage
Life and Style
tech

Board creates magnetic field to achieve lift

News
There have been various incidents of social media users inadvertently flouting the law
news

Life and Style
Stack ‘em high?: quantity doesn’t always trump quality, as Friends of the Earth can testify
techThe proliferation of online petitions allows us to register our protests at the touch of a button. But do they change anything?
News
Bourgogne wine maker Laboure-Roi vice president Thibault Garin (L) offers the company's 2013 Beaujolais Nouveau wine to the guest in the wine spa at the Hakone Yunessun spa resort facilities in Hakone town, Kanagawa prefecture, some 100-kilometre west of Tokyo
i100
Sport
CSKA Moscow celebrate after equalising with a late penalty
footballCSKA Moscow 2 Manchester City 2: Premier League champions let two goal lead slip in Russia
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Trainee Recruitment Consultant Birmingham

£18000 - £23000 per annum + Comission: SThree: The SThree group is a world lea...

Trainee Recruitment Consultants

£20000 - £25000 per annum + OTE £Competitive: SThree: SThree Group and have be...

Helpdesk Analyst

£23000 per annum + pension and 22 days holiday: Ashdown Group: An established ...

Senior Helpdesk Analyst / Service Desk Co-ordinator

£27000 per annum + pension, 22 days holiday: Ashdown Group: An established ind...

Day In a Page

Indiana serial killer? Man arrested for murdering teenage prostitute confesses to six other murders - and police fear there could be many more

A new American serial killer?

Police fear man arrested for murder of teen prostitute could be responsible for killing spree dating back 20 years
Sweetie, the fake 10-year-old girl designed to catch online predators, claims her first scalp

Sting to trap paedophiles may not carry weight in UK courts

Computer image of ‘Sweetie’ represented entrapment, experts say
Fukushima nuclear crisis: Evacuees still stuck in cramped emergency housing three years on - and may never return home

Return to Fukushima – a land they will never call home again

Evacuees still stuck in cramped emergency housing three years on from nuclear disaster
Wildlife Photographer of the Year: Intimate image of resting lions claims top prize

Wildlife Photographer of the Year

Intimate image of resting lions claims top prize
Online petitions: Sign here to change the world

Want to change the world? Just sign here

The proliferation of online petitions allows us to register our protests at the touch of a button. But do they change anything?
Ed Sheeran hits back after being labelled too boring to headline festivals

'You need me, I don’t need you'

Ed Sheeran hits back after being labelled too boring to headline festivals
How to Get Away with Murder: Shonda Rhimes reinvents the legal drama

How to Get Away with Murder

Shonda Rhimes reinvents the legal drama
A cup of tea is every worker's right

Hard to swallow

Three hospitals in Leicester have banned their staff from drinking tea and coffee in public areas. Christopher Hirst explains why he thinks that a cuppa is every worker's right
Which animals are nearly extinct?

Which animals are nearly extinct?

Conservationists in Kenya are in mourning after the death of a white northern rhino, which has left the species with a single male. These are the other species on the brink
12 best children's shoes

Perfect for leaf-kicking: 12 best children's shoes

Find footwear perfect to keep kids' feet protected this autumn
Anderlecht vs Arsenal: Gunners' ray of light Aaron Ramsey shines again

Arsenal’s ray of light ready to shine again

Aaron Ramsey’s injury record has prompted a club investigation. For now, the midfielder is just happy to be fit to face Anderlecht in the Champions League
Comment: David Moyes' show of sensitivity thrown back in his face by former Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson

Moyes’ show of sensitivity thrown back in his face... by Ferguson

Manchester United legend tramples on successor who resisted criticising his inheritance
Two super-sized ships have cruised into British waters, but how big can these behemoths get?

Super-sized ships: How big can they get?

Two of the largest vessels in the world cruised into UK waters last week
British doctors on brink of 'cure' for paralysis with spinal cord treatment

British doctors on brink of cure for paralysis

Sufferers can now be offered the possibility of cure thanks to a revolutionary implant of regenerative cells
Ranked seventh in world’s best tourist cities - not London, or Edinburgh, but Salisbury

Lonely Planet’s Best in Travel 2015

UK city beats Vienna, Paris and New York to be ranked seventh in world’s best tourist destinations - but it's not London