View from City Road: Pleasing pointers for the Chancellor
Tuesday 06 July 1993
On inflation, there is now less scepticism about the Government's ability to steer within its 4 per cent ceiling for the rise in the retail price index excluding mortgages. In February, the group average predicted 3.9 per cent for the fourth quarter of this year, and 3.5 per cent next year.
This time the forecast is 3.3 per cent in both. That partly reflects the recovery of sterling, now down nearly 12 per cent from its Black Wednesday level compared with 16 per cent at its trough. But it also suggests that economists are becoming less worried about the impact of a devaluation on prices when the economy is so depressed.
On financial variables, four of the seven think short-term interest rates will drop again but by no more than one percentage point. By the end of 1994, five of the panel think interest rates will edge upwards again. As for the pound, there is scarcely a sliver between them.
Last night the trade-weighted index closed at 81.3 (1985=100). The wise men think that sterling will be 78.7 at the end of 1994, with a close- knit range from 76.3 to 80.2. This consensus is decidedly odd given the debates about trade and capital flows. Nor, unfortunately, is agreement any guarantee that the panel is right.
One surprise is that there is so little divergence of view about the medium-term outlook, where average growth is projected to continue at roughly next year's rate. Gloomster Professor Wynne Godley is at the bottom end of the range, believing that our trade performance is so bad that growth will have to be very weak to staunch the red ink on the balance of payments.
But no one is prepared to argue that growth will be higher than 3.1 per cent in 1995 or 1996, despite years in which growth has been slower than the economy's capacity.
Swedish stars ask fans for £195 pledges on crowd-funding website
voicesJust when you thought you could find a man, get married, and have a baby by the age of 35... it turns out you’re too late, says Grace Dent
sportNapoli 2 Arsenal 0: Gunners must now face either Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid or Barcelona in knock-out stages
musicAs Mariah Carey and Noddy Holder rake in the royalties from their classics, why there hasn't been a decent festive hit for 20 years?
theatreAuthor Daniel Rosenthal recalls the mishaps that almost brought the curtain down on the likes of John Gielgud and Diana Rigg
lifeFull of the joys and want to help your fellow man? December isn't the time to do it
lifeAs the Royal Mail plans to phase out deliveries on two wheels, it's no wonder posties are in a spin
techLuke Blackall reports on precision engineered prams and babygros that monitor your child 24-7
The ten coldest places on Earth
Nelson Mandela memorial: ‘Bogus’ interpreter made mockery of Barack Obama’s tribute
David Cameron explains selfie with Obama and Helle Thorning-Schmidt at Mandela Memorial
Krokodil in Mexico? Teenager hospitalised after 'injecting drug into her genitals'
Australia incest case: Filthy and severely deformed children found in remote farming community after generations of inbreeding
- 1 Nelson Mandela memorial: ‘Bogus’ interpreter made mockery of Barack Obama’s tribute
- 2 It’s shameful that our universities have accepted gender segregation under pressure from the most oppressive religious fanatics
- 3 Kenyan politician Mike Sonko left red-faced after photoshopping himself next to Nelson Mandela
- 4 Exeter to Edinburgh and back in a day: How one fresher's lost bet left him facing a 900-mile round trip
- 5 Selfie at funeral: Cameron squeezes in on Obama snap at Mandela memorial
- < Previous
- Next >
iJobs Money & Business
£77099.84 - £96375.26 per annum + Bonus + Benefits : Harrington Starr: My clie...
£45000 - £60000 per annum + Bonus and Package: Harrington Starr: Trading appli...
£50000 - £60000 per annum + BONUS + BENEFITS: Harrington Starr: A leading prov...
£70000 - £90000 per annum + BONUS + BENEFITS: Harrington Starr: A leading mark...