Wrong-footed banking analysts have been blamed for failing to understand what was going on in their own industry. Trading volumes in bonds and some equities have been diabolical. And the price falls have added to the pain for houses dealing on their own account.
The analysts aren't wholly to blame. True, they might have paid more attention to the AGM statement on 29 June, when the chairman, Sir David Scholey, sounded a warning note. Instead, Warburg shares were marked up that day.
But the idea that outsiders can accurately predict six months' dealing profits in a modern-day securities house is laughable. With markets as volatile as they have been, the position alters dramatically by the week. And for houses indulging in heavy proprietary trading, it changes by the day. Demands for quarterly reporting can only get louder.Reuse content