Football: Britannia will not be cool as final drama unfolds

CALCULATORS and Kleenex at the ready for the last round of Nationwide League fixtures. On a weekend to make hearts flutter like football scarves blowing from car windows, the tension will be greatest at two of the newest stadiums.

Middlesbrough can make sure of the First Division's second automatic promotion place by overcoming Oxford at the Riverside. At the bottom, the situation is so convoluted that while victory at the Britannia may not save either Stoke or Manchester City from relegation, a draw just might.

The final table is likely to make strange reading. Four clubs - the champions, Nottingham Forest, plus Boro, Sunderland and Charlton - could top 90 points, yet two of the latter trio will have to take their chances in the play- offs. And as many as four may beat the drop with less than 50 points, the putative safety mark.

In the collision of cold mathematics and over-heated emotions, the Potteries looks set to experience the most dramatic debris. Twinned by managerial upheaval, boardroom blundering, increasingly militant support and wretched results, Stoke and City were perhaps always destined for this last-day dogfight.

Sadly, the potential for a different kind of scrap is all too evident. Stoke, who have already had a serious pitch invasion this year, suspect City fans have bought 3,000 "home" tickets as well as their 5,000 allocation. Messages threatening mayhem have appeared on the Internet, leaving 250 police officers and 240 stewards fearing a fraught finale.

Reading's demotion leaves five clubs scrambling to avoid two places. A scoring stalemate between Stoke and City could see both stay up, but only if Port Vale and Portsmouth lose at Huddersfield and Bradford respectively. If Vale and Pompey win, and Bury draw at QPR, a win would not save either.

City, having lost more home matches than anyone except Doncaster, may be glad to be away from Maine Road. Joe Royle, who may be deprived of Georgi Kinkladze, should perhaps steel himself for the ultimate irony of a City fanatic, the 18-year-old Stoke striker Dean Crowe, casting them into the third grade for the first time.

Vale will be backed by 4,500 supporters at the McAlpine Stadium, where they boast a 100 per cent record from three visits. At nearby Valley Parade, another travelling army will be backing Portsmouth's attempt to complete a centenary-year escape which looked fanciful when Alan Ball took over with them six points adrift.

Ball, nothing if not steeped in such matters, says that keeping "upbeat and calm" is the key to survival. "This is when a manager earns his corn. If the players see him all full of nerves it can affect them. We try to be light-hearted, to keep them sweet, and they've responded.''

Bryan Robson, Peter Reid and Alan Curbishley will doubtless be applying the same philosophy as they vie for the runners-up spot. Middlesbrough, relegated amid tears and a sense of injustice a year ago, will return to the Premiership provided they match what Sunderland (away to Swindon) and Charlton (at Birmingham) achieve. It will be a bittersweet moment for the Boro captain, Nigel Pearson, who will end his playing career either tomorrow, if his side secure promotion, or he will remain until after the play-offs.

Should Birmingham prevail, and leg-weary Sheffield United draw or lose at Stockport in their fourth game in nine days, Trevor Francis' side will make the play-off cut. Wolves, the West Midlands' pre-season favourites, are reduced to providing the opposition for John Aldridge's farewell to a playing career of 472 goals at Tranmere.

In the Second Division today, Watford's bid to wrest the title from Bristol City runs into Fulham's quest to confirm a play-off place. A point would be enough for the London side, yet defeat could see Bristol Rovers overhaul them by virtue of a superior scoring record, a surprising possibility given the involvement of Kevin Keegan.

A Rovers victory over Brentford may also spell trouble for Northampton and Gillingham, who must be equally wary of Wrexham's late surge. At the opposite end of the table, however, Burnley and Plymouth will be willing Rovers to win while being locked in their own bitter struggle. Chris Waddle's side will stay up only if they win and Brentford do not; Plymouth can afford to draw provided Brentford lose.

While four teams retain a chance of claiming the remaining automatic promotion place in the Third, Torquay need only to draw at Leyton Orient. A point for Barnet at Rochdale would nullify even an unlikely triumph for Rotherham at Notts County and book their play-off berth.

Meanwhile, Doncaster stage their last stand, an occasion for recrimination as much as regret.