Government set to miss its key education target

Many state schools are in danger of falling short of the Government's main target for raising primary education standards, according to a survey by The Independent.

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Many state schools are in danger of falling short of the Government's main target for raising primary education standards, according to a survey by The Independent.

Test results for 11-year-olds this year will show that the rate of improvement in maths and English is slowing down.

The study of more than 30 local education authorities indicated that the number of pupils reaching the required standard is likely to rise by between 1 and 2 percentage points this year. That would raise a question-mark over whether the Government can meets its target of getting 80 per cent to the required standard in English and 75 per cent in maths by 2002.

The news has come at the end of a tough week for government education policies as alarm has grown over the extent of teacher shortages for the new term. Headteachers joined the chorus, predicting that this autumn would be the worst for decades by claiming that ­ in addition to 5,000 vacancies remaining unfilled in secondary schools ­ around 6,000 (one in five) of the new appointments made had been unsatisfactory.

The maths and English targets in primary schools were announced by Labour when it took office in 1997. David Blunkett, Secretary of State for Education at the time, threatened to resign from his job if they were not met. He has now moved to the Home Office.

The past two years have seen large increases in the number of pupils reaching the required mark, coinciding with the introduction of the compulsory literacy hour and daily maths lessons in primary schools. Last year, the percentage of 11-year-olds reaching the English standard rose by four percentage points to 75 per cent, completing a two-year increase of 10 points. In maths, it went up by three points to 72 per cent, after a 10-point rise the previous year.

This year, according to the survey, which covered a spread of inner-city and suburban education authorities, the rise in English is likely to be only between one and two points. In all, 19 education authorities said results had improved, while six said they had got worse.

In maths, the authorities were evenly split between those that had improved results and those that had slipped back. There were big rises in some authorities of up to six points, making the average gain across the 33 that replied approximately one point.

In English, the figures mirrored a survey of individual schools by The Times Education Supplement that also showed a two-point rise this year. In maths, its findings were more optimistic, revealing a three-point increase.

Both surveys cast doubt on whether the Government can reach its English target next year. The rise needed in maths is smaller, and our survey shows it would take a two-point rise next year to achieve the target.

Education experts have maintained it would become difficult to sustain the level of rises shown in the first two years of the Government's strategy. That is because teachers are now dealing with the performance of youngsters further behind in the "three R's". And experts certainly raise a question-mark over the Government's next target ­ 85 per cent reaching the target in both disciplines by 2004.

The Department of Education and Skills said of the survey: "The rise in standards in primary schools over recent years has been remarkable ­ what Ofsted called a 'transformation'. The targets for 2002 ­ 80 per cent in English and 75 per cent in maths ­ are very challenging but we believe in the potential of pupils and believe it's right to have high expectations for education."