Kurds feel pressure to do deal with Iraq

"IF SANCTIONS on Iraq are lifted and Saddam gets out of the box he has been in since the Gulf war, then the Kurds will have to do a deal with him or go to the mountains," said Hoshyar Zibari, a Kurdish leader.

The four million Iraqi Kurds, who have ruled themselves since 1991, are nervously watching the renewed confidence and strength of the Iraqi leader in the wake of his confrontation with the US and Britain in February.

Mr Zibari believes Baghdad is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the Kurds because "it expects [the Kurds'] international protection to wither away".

American and British planes at present fly daily patrols over Kurdistan, north of the 36th parallel, from the Turkish airbase at Incirlik. The Kurds have also benefited since last year from increased aid through the oil-for-food plan agreed between Iraq and the UN.

Also, the savage civil war between Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Jalal Talabani, of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), has been replaced by talk of reconciliation.

But this may be only a brief hiatus for Iraqi Kurdistan, one of the most fought-over places on Earth in the past half-century.

Saddam Hussein withdrew his troops from his three Kurdish provinces to a fortified line in 1991. He expected the Kurdish leaders to fall out and the prospect of Kurdish self- determination to frighten Turkey and Iran, both of which have sizeable Kurdish minorities.

Seldom has a political calculation been so rapidly fulfilled. In 1994 a civil war started in which Mr Barzani took western Kurdistan and Mr Talabani took the east. Both sides looked to foreign allies.

In 1986, the Iraqi leader sent his tanks back into Kurdistan to help Mr Barzani capture Arbil, the Kurdish capital. Last year Mr Talabani launched an offensive which was thrown back by Turkish air strikes and artillery. He admitted to 273 dead, while the KDP said his real losses were between 800 and 1,000.

In an interview with The Independent in London, Mr Talabani said he believed that "while President Clinton is in office, sanctions will not be lifted". But he confirmed that Rafi al-Tikiti, head of the Iraqi Mukhabarat security police, visited him in his capital of Sulaimaniyah in February, "bringing greetings from the Iraqi leadership".

Mr Talabani said he supported reconciliation with the KDP and added: "So long as we are divided, it is very difficult to talk with Baghdad."

Mr Zibari said an understanding with the PUK would enable both parties to "get a better deal with Iraq". In either case, the Kurds still face the problem that Saddam Hussein - or any other Iraqi leader - will only grant the Iraqi Kurds real autonomy out of weakness.

US officials in Washington are, for the first time, showing anxiety about the political price they are paying in order to maintain sanctions on Iraq.

They increasingly put the emphasis on trying to show flexibility over what Iraq can export and import, and on trying to keep oil revenues out of the hands of the Iraqi leader.

Mr Zibari said he expected a fresh crisis between the US and Iraq to occur in October when UN sanctions come up for renewal.

But Washington seems to have little appetite for such a confrontation. The US has withdrawn one aircraft carrier from its naval force in the Gulf. And this week, the Pentagon admitted it had pulled back its Stealth bombers, dispatched to threaten Iraq with much fanfare earlier this year.

One Iraqi observer warned, however, that the US might react militarily in a fresh crisis. Its weakened position in the Middle East - thanks to its failure to deliver an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement - means it cannot afford to be humiliated by Saddam Hussein.

From Baghdad's point of view, its policies in Kurdistan have paid off.

Tariq Aziz, Iraq's deputy prime minister, has regular talks with the KDP. A measure of the Kurdish need to conciliate old enemies is that these meetings are sometimes attended by Ali Hassan al-Majid, known to the Kurds as "Ali Chemical", because he killed thousands of Kurds with poison gas in 1988.

But the Kurds still hold some cards. As well as the US and British flights over the enclave, Iran and Turkey do not want to see Baghdad back in total control of its Kurdish provinces. Mr Zibari said: "We are the only real opposition to Baghdad in Iraq."

This is true. It might prove embarrassing to leave the Kurds entirely to the mercies of the Iraqi leader.