Landslide that points to inevitable change

WIRRAL AFTERMATH: Analysis

It now requires a leap of faith to predict anything other than a Labour landslide in the general election in two months' time. There is no hard evidence to suggest that, dramatic events apart, the Conservatives can avoid disaster.

If the 17 per cent swing to Labour since the 1992 election in Wirral South were repeated across the country, Tony Blair would win with a majority of 293 seats. This seems so fanciful that it is tempting to believe Michael Heseltine's claim that the voters of the Wirral took the chance to give the Government a "kicking", and that the decision will be very different in a few weeks' time when the voters there are choosing a government rather than sending a message to one.

But there is scant evidence of this from last time. In the Langbaurgh by-election before the 1992 general election, there was a 4 per cent swing to Labour. In the general election itself, the swing to Labour was just 2 per cent. So in five months, after the hard-hitting attack on Labour's "tax bombshell", John Major was able to pull back the swingometer by only two points. This time he has two months. Even if he can pull back two points, that would leave a swing to Labour of 15 per cent and a majority for Mr Blair of 230 seats. Paradoxically, there is more hope for the Tories in the message of the opinion polls. The polls in Wirral South were all within a point or two of the result.

If we take the average of this month's national polls, they suggest a swing to Labour of only 12.5 per cent since the last election. We have yet to hear a Tory politician say: "Never mind real votes in real ballot boxes, look at the opinion polls." But perhaps this is not surprising, because if the polls are right, Mr Blair would still win a 190-seat majority.

After this, the Tories begin to run out of excuses.

They cannot blame defeat on their supporters staying at home. The turnout of 73 per cent was high for a by-election. Nationally, the turnout at the last general election was 78 per cent (contrary to the common assumption of growing apathy, this was up from 75 per cent in 1987 and 73 per cent in 1983). And this cannot simply be put down to Labour's intensive telephone canvassing: they will be doing that too in key marginal seats in the general election, backed by a national campaign.

The only other hard evidence about the mood of the electorate is the weekly trickle of data from local council by-elections. These were seized by the Tories late last year when they appeared to herald a recovery in their fortunes. But that has since faded, resembling what City analysts call a "dead cat bounce". The latest estimates of the parties' share of the votes in these contests, adjusted to take account of local circumstances, show Labour in the lead across the country by 18 per cent - much the same as the opinion polls.

So, in order to forecast even a Labour majority of fewer than 100 seats, we have to assume two things. One is that the voters of the Wirral will return in unprecedented numbers to the Tories in just nine weeks - even though, unlike in previous by-elections, they tell opinion pollsters they will do no such thing.

The other is that the national opinion polls are still getting it badly wrong, despite the changes made by all the polling companies since the debacle of 1992. They are unlikely to be as far out as they were in 1992.

But the final nail through the heart of Tory hopes is that, even if they were that far out, Mr Blair would still win with a majority of 80.