Local results sound a warning of losses at home and abroad

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The Independent Online
----------------------------------------------------------------- EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- Distribution of UK seats on the basis of Thursday's voting ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1989 Conservatives 21 34 Labour 52 49 Liberal Democrats 9 0 SNP 2 1 Northern Ireland 3 3 -----------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------- HOUSE OF COMMONS ----------------------------------------------------------------- State of the parties extrapolated from voting in council elections Conservatives 161 Labour 376 Liberal Democrats 87 Others 27 Labour majority 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Channel 4 News -----------------------------------------------------------------

AN ANALYSIS of Thursday's voting patterns by Channel 4 News last night predicted that the Conservatives would suffer heavy losses in the elections for the European Parliament to be held on 9 June.

Based on a sample of 24 Parliamentary seats, the survey indicated that the Conservatives could expect to lose 13 seats. The Liberal Democrats would be the main beneficiaries, taking nine of those lost seats. This would represent a much better showing for the Liberal Democrats than the one or two victories that had been predicted before the local elections.

Labour could also expect to make some gains, and the Scottish National Party's strong showing on Thursday suggested it could be in line for a seat. The predictions are based on notional results in the European elections in 1989 because this year Britain will have six more seats in the European Parliament following boundary changes.

Channel 4 News also used the sample 24 constituencies to predict how the country would have voted on Thursday had there been a general election rather than a local one.

That showed that Labour would romp home with a majority of more than 100 seats and the Liberal Democrats would make their long-awaited breakthrough, winning almost 90 constituencies.

Full analysis, page 6

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