Major hurdles on to more tests of nerve

JOHN RENTOUL

Political Correspondent

The Prime Minister still faces perilous hurdles after Monday's cliffhanging vote, with his technical Commons majority only two - and likely to be cut to one if Labour wins the Staffordshire South East by-election.

The first hurdle will be a vote on the Government's European policy, carrying dangerous echoes of the trench warfare which dominated the first 18 months of this parliamentary session. Malcolm Rifkind, the Foreign Secretary, will publish in the next two weeks a White Paper setting out the Government's views on the talks to revise the Maastricht treaty which open in Turin on 29 March.

The vote on the White Paper will be similar in form to one which the Government won by five votes a year ago on a Labour motion which simply stated that the House did not agree with Government policy towards the European Union.

Another danger sign is that, last March, Ian Paisley's three Democratic Unionists voted against the Government - and it was their abstention plus Rupert Allason's last-minute switch which saved the day for Mr Major on Monday. But Mr Paisley and David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party are united in their Euro-scepticism, and could both vote against Mr Rifkind's White Paper.

That means Labour could need to induce just two Tories into the opposition lobby to engineer an embarrassing defeat. Mr Major would then have to call a confidence vote, which he would be expected to win.

He could also face trouble from Tory rebels over plans for divorce law reform expected to move from the Lords to the Commons next month.

The next known hurdles are tests of support among a more hostile electorate. Labour seems almost certain to win the by-election in Staffordshire South East caused by the death of Sir David Lightbown, the former Tory whip. And the Tories face the loss of around 500 seats in the local elections on 2 May.

All this against a background of actuarial estimates of death rates among MPs which could eliminate Mr Major's majority before the summer recess in July.

And there remains the threat of further defections. Westminster observers noted that Paddy Ashdown recently praised Edwina Currie, the former Tory minister, for resigning honourably while in office.