Newspapers may be changing but we will go on reading them

The big guns of the "reports of the death of newspapers is premature" faction have come out fighting. The World Association of Newspapers (WAN) is making aggressively upbeat presentations, while Sly Bailey, Trinity Mirror's chief executive, attacks "certain media commentators" for talking down news in print. The latest circulation figures, however, provide more ammunition for the pessimists.

But let us start with the positive. It is unusual to see full-page advertisements promoting newspapers generically. Advertisements issued by the WAN, representing 18,000 papers worldwide, made the point that newspaper sales (and distribution of free-sheets) were rising, as were advertising revenues and investment. Its data was presented in London last week to investors and media analysts by the WAN president, Gavin O'Reilly, chief operating officer of Independent News & Media, publishers of this newspaper.

"Those of us in the newspaper business," Mr O'Reilly said, "are very confident in the future - a future that is based on doing what we do best - producing relevant and compelling products for our local markets, aggregating growing audiences and showcasing them to advertisers."

He produced figures showing that paid-for circulations grew by 1.9 per cent in 2006, and by 8.7 per cent over five years. The optimistic message continued: 1.4 billion people read a newspaper each day, paid-for daily titles have exceeded 11,000 for the first time, and print is the biggest advertising medium in the world.

Ms Bailey echoed the WAN message, despite her company's advertising revenues falling 3 per cent this year and some regional titles being up for sale. "Much of the pessimism has been created by certain media commentators misjudging the market," she said. "We are convinced that newspapers will be in business for many years to come."

So what's all the fuss about? While there is no doubting the veracity of the WAN data, the trouble is that it is worldwide data. Newspaper sales are growing in the developing world. India is a good example. But the developing world has rising literacy rates and does not have the level of broadband internet access we do. And you can hardly reconcile Ms Bailey's cheery message with the recent sales performances of her national titles, like the Mirror and the People.

Despite strong promotion, with books, birdsong, breakfasts, texts of great speeches and the usual CDs all being deployed to tempt the reader, April was a poor month for newspapers in the UK. Every national, daily and Sunday recorded a year-on-year decline in sale (apart from the Daily Star, which remained steady). The highest drops among the dailies were the Express, Mirror and Times, and among the Sundays the People, Observer and Sunday Times.

There is nothing to be gained from talking down newspapers, as this commentator hasn't. Saying, as the WAN and Sly Bailey have done, that they have a future, commercially, editorially and as a part of the media mix, is not sticking your head in the sand. Media develops and diversifies, but reading words on paper will continue to matter a great deal to a lot of people.

Sad facts of life

The war of the London frees completed six months with News International's thelondonpaper distributing 491,000 copies to Associated Newspapers' London Lite's 401,000. This came after the allegations of "dumping" against thelondonpaper (with clandestine videos being taken of the alleged dumpers). ABC's investigation found some truth in this, but any suggestion that a drop of 10,000 in distribution compared with March could support London Lite's claims can be no more than speculative. Sadly, the figures for the paid-for Evening Standard are factual. The slide continues. The April figure of 266,000 represents a year-on-year decline of 15.7 per cent.

Peter Cole is professor of journalism at the University of Sheffield